Presentation Transcript

1. “An efficient transformation to a lower carbon economy “ Mulhouse, 06.12.2013
2. World GHG Emissions *FossilFuel relatedemissions *Direct emissions (i.e. livestock CH4 emissions, Co2 emissionsfromcutting down trees) Source: Analysis by Ecofys – flow chart 2010
3. "Super-cycle" of developing world growth Changing dynamics in the energy sector are putting current energy architecture under pressure Recession Global Energy Demand, 1990-2035 TPED – Mtoe - new policies scenarios World Bank Energy Price Index 2010=100, Real 2010 US$ terms* Energy-related CO2 emissions by region Mt CO2 – new policies scenarios OECD - Asia/Oceania OECD - Europe OECD OECD OECD - Americas Non-OECD Non-OECD Non-OECD Sources: IEA (WEO 2013), World Bank, IEA (WEO 2013)
4. Energy transitions are more complex than ever before
5. Through the New Energy Architecture the Forum seeks to measure the transitions across an “Energy Triangle” Energy Architecture Objectives “Energy Triangle” Economic Growth & Development Definitions Physical elements: Includes energy sources, their carriers and end markets. Social elements: Includes political institutions, industry and civil society, which shape the physical elements. The Energy Triangle: Ultimate objectives that the energy architecture is designed to support. Boundary constraints: Factors limiting performance against the energy triangle, both physical and social. Water availability Land availability Industry “Physical” “Physical” Carriers Civil Society Govern-ment Energy Sources Geographic setting & climate Hydrocarbon reserves Markets & Demand Sectors Energy Access & Security Environmental Sustainability “Social” “Boundary Constraints”
6. The analysis of the New Energy Architecture initiative highlights policy, market structures, technology and human capital as the key enabling factors for effective transitions The four enabling pillars POLICY MARKET STRUCTURES TECHNOLOGY HUMAN CAPITAL
7. A single factor does not drive a transition on its own: the ecosystem of enabling pillars must come together Technical advances in Hydraulic fracturing Regulatory framework Market with small independent producers O&G workforce
8. Interconnectedness of energy systems: individual transitions can have a wider reach and impact and cause negative transitions $ $
9. Conclusions There is a clear and significant transformation on-going in the global energy system An integrated approach is critical Trade-offs are often necessary New Technologies are available Sustainability needs more attention
10. Appendix
11. How does business interactwithclimate goal? Energy literacy Consumer demand Brand image Loweringcost base
12. Fossilfuels are stilldominating the energylandscape Global energy demandTPED, bn toe Source: IHS Global Insight and International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections)
13. Energy architecture performance index (EAPI) indicator conceptual framework KEY QUESTION How successfully does [the] country’s energy system perform in terms of promoting economic growth and development , whilst being environmentally sustainable, secure and allowing universal access to consumers? ENERGY ARCHITECTURE PERFORMANCE INDEX Efficiency Affordability / Lack of price distortion Supports / detracts from growth Emissions impact Ratio of low carbon fuels in the energy mix Diversity of supply Level and quality of access Self-sufficiency / multi-lateral markets ECONOMIC GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY ENERGY ACCESS & SECURITY MEASURES: MEASURES: MEASURES: QUANTITATIVE
14. Energy architecture performance index (EAPI) indicators How successfully does [the] country’s energy system perform in terms of promoting economic growth and development , whilst being environmentally sustainable, secure and allowing universal access to consumers? ENERGY ARCHITECTURE PERFORMANCE INDEX ECONOMIC GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY ENERGY ACCESS & SECURITY QUANTITATIVE