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Ensemble sensitivity analysis. Research performed by Minghua Zheng (SBU graduate student) References: Torn and Hakim (2008, 2009). Initial time 2010 Dec 23 12Z, 84 hour ECMWF ensemble forecast. Ensemble mean. Variance. Dec 27 2010 00Z (84-hr fcst).

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Ensemble sensitivity analysis

Ensemble sensitivity analysis

Research performed by Minghua Zheng (SBU graduate student)

References:

Torn and Hakim (2008, 2009)



Ensemble mean forecast

Variance

Dec 27 2010

00Z

(84-hr fcst)


Sensitivity of EOF 1 (weak/strong cyclone) to 500 hPa height forecast

0-lag

Here, J is the principal component of EOF1

EOF1 positive phase: weaker cyclone


T-0hr (27 00Z) forecast

T-24hr (26 00Z)

T-60hr (24 12Z)


Sensitivity of EOF 2 (SW/NE shift of cyclone) to 500 hPa height

0-lag

EOF2 positive phase:

southwest shift of cyclone


T-0hr (27 00Z) height

T-24hr (26 00Z)

T-48hr (25 00Z)


T-48 hr (25 00Z) height

Sensitivity

EOF1

EOF2


T-60 hr (24 12Z) height

Sensitivity

EOF1

EOF2


  • SBU CSTAR future work: height

    • Examine sensitivity for different forecast metric J

    • Examine sensitivity computed using multi-model ensembles

    • Relate to ETKF sensitivity


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