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Nowcasting Applications

Nowcasting Applications. Travis Smith Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings. “Nowcasting” Applications. Remotely sensed detection 0-2 hour warning / forecast High temporal and spatial resolution. Assistance for warning decision-making. NSSL Laboratory Review February 17-19, 2009.

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Nowcasting Applications

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  1. Nowcasting Applications Travis Smith Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings

  2. “Nowcasting” Applications Remotely sensed detection 0-2 hour warning / forecast High temporal and spatial resolution Assistance for warning decision-making. NSSL Laboratory Review February 17-19, 2009 2

  3. Need to quantify uncertainty, rather than a deterministic answer Entire feature reduced to a point Limitations of early algorithms • Need better quality control and higher resolution data • Need all meteorological information that went into algorithm decision • Not easy to integrate data from multiple sensors 3

  4. Multiple sensors 4

  5. Blended 3D multi-radar data • Radars in network supplement each other: • Overlapping coverage • Fills in gaps from terrain blockage • Increased sampling frequency 5

  6. Height of -20C Isotherm Example: Blending data from multiple sources • SatelliteRadarLightning 6

  7. Near-surface reflectivity Reflectivity @ -20 C Total Lightning Density Max Expected Size of Hail (~6.5 km AGL) Examples: Multi-sensor data fields • Show physical relationships between data fields from multiple sensors • Storm tracks and trends can be generated at any spatial scale, for any data fields 7

  8. Users • We produce about 100 different data fields in real-time • Storm Prediction Center operations (& other NCEP) • 5 NWS Forecast Offices – direct feeds • Google Earth layer: 12,000 unique users, 3.5M to 12M hits per month (including additional NWS users) • Licensed to private industry: 46% of US TV stations • Transition to NWS operations once AWIPS2 deployed 8

  9. Hazardous Weather Testbed / Experimental Warning Program • Continued collaboration with forecasters is vital! 9

  10. Ongoing / Future research • Integrating new data sources • Polarimetric radar data • Phased Array Radar • Total Lightning (GOES-R & ground-based sensors) CONUS-scale 3D radar re-analysis at 1km / 5 min – • data mining • 1995 – present Zdr“column” 0° C Reflectivity 0° C Cross-section NSSL Laboratory Review February 17-19, 2009 10

  11. Summary • Science and applications to support nowcasting: • Multi-sensor applications • Forecaster-driven • Products show physical process relationships • Moving towards probabilistic hazard information • Wide use across NWS and private sector 11

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