Backcasting and scenario analysis

1. Backcasting and scenario analysis Southern Case El Morro (Barrio de Moravia) - Medellín 2008 International Seminar on Sustainable Technology Development Barcelona, 9th-13th June 2008

2. 1. Criteria for sustainability • In order for a society to be sustainable, nature's functions and diversity are not • systematically: • ... subject to increasing concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth's crust; • II. ... subject to increasing concentrations of substances produced by society; • III. … impoverished by over-harvesting or other forms of ecosystem manipulation • IV. ...resources are used fairly and efficiently in order to meet basic human needs world wide. • …social durability, like social networking, social awareness of sustainability, health, safety and prosperity.

3. 2. Today situation: Criteria for sustainability • ... increasing concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth's crust; • The waste-hill is emitting highly toxic substances, i.e. gases and liquids, originating from e.g. plastics which has been produced from raw materials coming out of the Earth crust, (oil, metals etc.). • II. ... subject to increasing concentrations of substances produced by society; • The waste-hill is emitting highly toxic liquids as a by-product of the waste, but also waste water from the local people. • III. … impoverished by over-harvesting or other forms of ecosystem manipulation • Not applicable. • IV. ...resources are used fairly and efficiently in order to meet basic human needs world wide. • The basic needs are fulfilled. • V. …social durability, like social networking, social awareness of sustainability, health, safety and prosperity. • The is no existing integration of the people living on the hill in the society • of Medellín. Limiting access to infrastructure and resources of the city as education and shelter. • The population of the hill has at the moment a limited “voice” in the decision making about the future of the hill.

4. 3. Envisioning the future of “el Morro” Option A: Keep the hill and make improvements to reduce the toxic-degree of the hill in order to use the land and the potential of the people living there to reach a sustainable future. A future which combine all the sustainability criteria including not only the local area and people but also the surrounding city and it citizens, representing a example of sustainable living on global scale. Option B: Make a big excavation and move the whole waste-hill to another location where the waste can be treated and at the same time create a new, clean and regular living area.

5. 3. Envisioning the future of “el Morro” - Fitting to the Sustainability Criteria Sust. Crit. • - Self sufficient in energy: Bio-gas (Methane) to heat, Solar-energy for electricity. - Self sufficient in water management: Drain water, store it, reuse it, grey water • system, bio-wastewater-treatment-plants. • Self sufficient in waste management: re-use, recycling, connected to city waste • collection. • - Organic agricultural for food supply (reducing greenhouse gases). I. Concentration from Earth crust - Waste-water recycling for use in agriculture purposes on the hill. II. Concentration from new products - Bio-agricultural for food supply. • Water and waste-management for sanitarian reasons . • Bio-agricultural for food supply. • Provide shelter. III. Over-harvesting IV. Fulfill basic human needs • - Local market to sell organic products from the hill. • - Connection with city (social integration). • - New workplace for the Moravia area. • Institute for new arriving people from rural areas, school farming. • Support and facilitate to return to their land with new skills. • Increase their awareness and knowledge how to live sustainable. • Infrastructure for electricity and gas. V. Durable social network

6. 3. Envisioning the future of “el Morro” • Fitting to the Dimensions of Change to SD Dimension of change • Structure • - Local market to sell organic products from the hill. • Connection with city (social integration). • Support and facilitate to return to their land with new skills. • Technology • - Self sufficient in energy: Bio-gas (Methane) to heat, Solar-energy for elect. • - Self sufficient in water management: Drain water, store it, reuse it, grey water • system, bio-wastewater-treatment-plants. • Self sufficient in waste management: re-use, recycling, connected to city • waste collection. • - Infrastructure for electricity and gas. • Waste-water recycling for use in agriculture purposes on the hill. • - Organic agricultural for food supply (reducing greenhouse gases). STRUCTURE TECHNOLOGY CULTURE • Culture • - New workplace for the Moravia area. • Institute for new arriving people from rural areas, school farming. • Increase their awareness and knowledge how to live sustainable.

7. 4. Strategy

8. 5. Influencing Factors • More people / immigrants are coming to the hill and want to settle there. • The prices of the non-renewable energies/technologys rise up / too much. • The effects belonging to climate changes will increase. • The hill collapse (structural problems). • River level rise causing floodings. • People don´t want to move. • The city will cooperate with all the changes. • The city population of Medellin doesn´t want to receive the reallocated people. • New efficient (economicly and energy) tecnology will appear. • International political order in terms of humanitarian help will get better. • The people of Moravia will accept and learn the sustainable vision. • Local produced energy can be sold to the resident energy network. • The health problems will not disapper, because of the still existing high degree of contamination. • The Biogasproduction will decrease. • The Medellín people will not buy the new products (food) with origin of the hill. • The Medellin people have prejudices because they think it is dirty, unsafe and unsecure. • The rainfall will increase and the hill is sliding “away”. • The rainfall will reduce a lot so that there will not be enough water for agriculture. • The rainfall will reduce a lot so that there will not be enough water for safe drinking water supply. • The Kyoto Clean Development mechanism will not work. • Because of heavy rainfall there will be erosion of the soil.

9. 5. Influencing Factors • More people / immigrants are coming to the hill and want to settle there. • The prices of the non-renewable energies/technologys rise up / too much. • The effects belonging to climate changes will increase. • The hill collapse (structural problems). • River level rise causing floodings. • People don´t want to move. • The city will cooperate with all the changes. • The city population of Medellin doesn´t want to receive the reallocated people. • New efficient (economicly and energy) tecnology will appear. • International political order in terms of humanitarian help will get better. • The people of Moravia will accept and learn the sustainable vision. • Local produced energy can be sold to the resident energy network. • The health problems will not disapper, because of the still existing high degree of contamination. • The Biogasproduction will decrease. • The Medellín people will not buy the new products (food) with origin of the hill. • The Medellin people have prejudices because they think it is dirty, unsafe and unsecure. • The rainfall will increase and the hill is sliding “away”. • The rainfall will reduce a lot so that there will not be enough water for agriculture. • The rainfall will reduce a lot so that there will not be enough water for safe drinking water supply. • The Kyoto Clean Development mechanism will not work. • Because of heavy rainfall there will be erosion of the soil.

10. 4 12 11 21 20 18 17 14 16 15 19 10 2 5 6 7 1 9 3 13 8 6. Effects and Uncertainties TRENDS: 1. More immigrants. 2. Rising prices of non-renewable energy. 3. The effects of climate change will increase. - TRENDSandCritical Uncertainties Impact High Critical Uncertainties: 6. People don´t want to move. 7. The city will cooperate. 8. The city population don´t want the reallocated people. 11. The people of Moravia accept the vision of sustainability. 13. The health problems will not disapper. 16. Medellín people have prejudices about hill. 19. Rainfall reduces, no natural drinking water Low High Low Predictability

11. 7. Scenarios Critical Uncertainties: Scenario A: 7. The city will cooperate with all the changes. The area suffer big presure by the goverment. More conflicts and forced measures. 11. The people of Moravia will accept and learn the sustainable vision. Scenario B: The City will collaborate The area becomes sustainable. The “Morro” helps to integrate “Moravia” with the city. “Morro” becomes a referent pilot model world wide. + A B Scenario C: + Trend + Trend The development of the area is limited. - Don´t share vision + Share vision D C Scenario D: + Trend + Trend The area becomes more and more overcrowded and the health and enviromental problems get worse. - The City will not collaborate

12. 8. Robust Business Idea / Strategy Strategy X totally social way. Strategy Y totally technology way. Strategy X totally agriculture way.

13. Backcasting and scenario analysis _ Southern Case MORRA-VIA C. Casanova N. Kojalieva M. Högberg L. Kleerekoper J. Alonso L. Rodrigues 2008 International Seminar on Sustainable Technology Development