Centralised and national submissions of transport emissions

1. Centralised and national submissions of transport emissions Vienna, May 11, 2009 Giorgos MelliosThomas PapageorgiouLeon Ntziachristos EEA project manager: Martin Adams Study funded by EEA in the framework of the ETC/ACC IP2009; undertaken by LAT/AUTh LABORATORY OF APPLIED THERMODYNAMICS ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY THESSALONIKI

2. Outline • Background • Objectives • Methodology • Discussion • Outlook

3. Background: Centralised calculations • European policy is mostly based on centralised tools to calculate emissions and for projections • The TREMOVE model is used in transport projections and to perform impact assessments (Euro 5&6, Euro VI, CO2&cars, …) • TREMOVE estimates demand based on cost of transportation and uses COPERT to calculate emissions • Several of the TERM indicators for environmental assessment are produced on the basis of models (such as TREMOVE…) • e.g. TERM 28 on specific emissions of air pollutants, TERM 33 on the average age of vehicle fleet

4. Background: Data sources and usage • In 2008, EC (DG ENV) collected and produced streamlined road stock and activity data for all EU27 MSs + (CH, HR, NO, TR) to feed COPERT and TREMOVE (FLEETS project) • Base year: 2005 • Historic years : Mostly back to 1995 (some countries already starting 1970) • EC (DG ENV) will base transport projections to 2030 on these data • TREMOVE for impact assessments • EC4MACS (GAINS, PRIMES) for integrated assessment

5. Background: Centralised vs. national

6. Objectives • Compare centrally calculated and national submissions of transport emissions, with emphasis on road transport • To check whether centralised calculations are consistent with national data • QC to identify (and explain) cases where national data exhibit unusual departures from centrally calculated emissions

7. Methodology: National submissions • For main pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, PM): emission data officially submitted to CLRTAP • For CO2: emission data officially submitted to UNFCCC • Data collected for EEA30 countries (except Iceland and Liechtenstein), years 2000 and 2005 • Aggregated and sectoral (except CO2) data available for most countries

8. Methodology: Centralised calculations • Transport activity data from the FLEETS database (vehicle stock, mileage, speeds, shares, etc.) • Data obtained from international sources (Eurostat, ACEA, …) and national data (experts, projects) • Data collected for EEA30 countries (except Iceland and Liechtenstein) and for years 2000 and 2005 • Calculations performed with COPERT 4 (v6.1) to estimate pollutant and CO2 emissions • Mileage adjusted to match national fuel use statistics (from UNFCCC submissions) • Bias to be introduced if UNFCCC and CLRTAP equivalent fuel consumptions differ

9. Results: Emissions comparison • Preliminary results only shown in this presentation • Total emissions (kt) • Indicators (g/kg fuel)

10. Results: Total emissions (kt)

11. Results: Indicators (g/kg fuel)

12. Results: CO Indicators Increasing National CO

13. Results: Classification of CO deviations

14. Results: ΝOx Indicators Increasing National NOx

15. Results: Classification of NOx deviations

16. Results: More details available • Excel spreadsheets provide more information on individual vehicle classes Italy – CO Austria - CO

17. Discussion • CO2 emissions in good agreement due to mileage tuning • Fair agreement for other pollutants at an aggregated level – no bias • Differences increase when looking in more detail • Country level • Sector level • Centralised NOx emissions somewhat higher due to higher HDV EF in Copert 4 than Copert 3 • Exercise appears useful to and may be used to improve/better understand data

18. Outlook • Draft report under preparation to disseminate to parties for commenting (due end of May) • Rerun calculations with 2008 national submissions • Prepare final report, including country comments/corrections by October 2009

19. Thank you for your attention! …looking forward to fruitful collaboration!