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Housing Australians The Outlook for Australia’s Residential Construction Industry. Graham Wolfe HIA Chief Executive – Industry Policy & Media 20 September 2012. Population Growth – Australia. NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION - NSW. New housing starts in New South Wales. NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION - NSW.

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housing australians the outlook for australia s residential construction industry

Housing AustraliansThe Outlook for Australia’s Residential Construction Industry

Graham Wolfe

HIA Chief Executive – Industry Policy & Media

20 September 2012

the world is a worry
The world is a worry

Europe is a basket case, but …

  • … it’s finding a way to muddle through.
  • Confidence, credit, and exposure for East Asia are the key linkages to Australia.

Updates on the US economy are patchy

  • One recent, large, positive – the housing market seems to be recovering

China holding up “okayish”?

  • China has slowed, and there are some concerns, but…
  • … these concerns still look over-played.
  • East Asia in general is slowing down and the focus is here to stay for a while.
renovations are also sliding
… renovations are also sliding
  • Renovations investment has fallen over four consecutive quarters.
the good and bad easing dwelling prices
The good and bad: easing dwelling prices
  • Do we really need to scare the living daylights out of people?
median dwelling price
Median Dwelling Price

Baby boomer FHB

aged children

GFC-induced stimulus

4% unemployment

Baby boomer investors

6% Interest

rate

17% Interest rate

4.25% Interest rate

6.9% unemployment

Infrastructure levies surge

Sydney is FULL! and

GST commences

Unemployment 8.5%

the good and bad falling interest rates
The good and bad: falling interest rates
  • Are we at the end of the line?
so what now
So, what now?
  • There remain many short term challenges to residential construction, …
  • … both new home building and renovations.
  • The renovations model is changing and that brings opportunity.
  • So too does state governments realising things have to change on the new home building front.
  • People will adjust to the ‘new world’ for housing prices and with that will come opportunity as well.
  • Australia’s housing backyard needs work and HIA will keep up the fight.
  • The key challenge is uncertainty around when we will see ‘the turn’.
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