WHY DO SOME DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BECOME AND STAY DEMOCRATIC? WHY DON’T OTHERS?

1. WHY DO SOME DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BECOME AND STAY DEMOCRATIC? WHY DON’T OTHERS?

2. IS THE THIRD WAVE OVER? WHAT ABOUT A FOURTH WAVE? Larry Diamond: There are only 30 core democracies, 8 of which are micro states. Democracies have come in waves where “reverse waves” usually eliminate half of the new ones. We seem to be in a reverse wave despite the Arab Spring Looming threats Many of the remaining non-democracies have resources curses The Chinese political/economic example: Russia, Turkey, Venezuela, Egypt, the Philippines, Burma, Thailand (and India and the US?) US withdrawal and exhaustion: HW Bush -> Trump Economic and performance crises; rising inequality ; Civic decay and state violence Nationalist and theocratic movements Authoritarian enclaves within new democracies Impediments to reversal: Liberalism over the long run Professionalization of militaries Cultural penetration of democracy everywhere No coherent global alternative ideology to liberal democracy… yet (Duarte; China, Russia, Venezuela, Turkey) Trade relationships and organizations

3. WHAT ARE THE PREQUISITES FOR DEMOCRACY? No political polarization around insurmountable differences Economic/social structures that reinforce power sharing institutions and norms… per cap. $8K per cap sustains, but as little as 1.5K can work. Oil wealth not as helpful even if distributed broadly. Elite attitudes matter more than mass attitudes Previous experiences with democracy are critical Why does democracy happen in waves? A certain mass political culture? A “snowball” environment and hegemon press8res helps…

4. HOW DO COUNTRIES BECOME (AKA TRANSITION TO BEING) DEMOCRATIC? Types of transitions: Government-dominated: Most successful in the short term Negotiated: Most successful in the long-term Bottom-up replacement: Satisfying, but problematic The “Players”: Hard-liners, soft-liners; moderates Preference orders Process tradeoffs: Short-term vs. long-term Economic vs. political transition Justice and reparations

5. WHAT MAKES DEMOCRACIES ENDURE? Consolidation requires legitimization Behavioral vs. attitudinal (norms) dimensions Elites, civil society, mass public The behavioral dimension The infrastructure of lasting democracies A strong civil society Independent media Political society (especially political parties) Institutions for the rule of law and citizenship Rational administration with state accountability A regulated market economy?

6. DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH? WHAT DIRECTION IS THE RELATIONSHIP? Three possibilities: XY; YX; Spurious variable Aboth X & Y. And then there is the “sometimes” factor: necessary vs. sufficient causality. Why do democracies excel? Voters care about economic performance a lot! Some combination of checks and balances (in most) and coalition government: deliberation & consensus Political monopoly tends to turn into economic monopoly; democracy usually =less The free flow of information and transparency pressures Adaptability and crisis management Order matters: Does a focus on growth first make it more likely democracy will follow? Does growth-first stall democratization? It is hard to liberalize economies under democracy State capitalism provides an alternative to democratic growth Authoritarian regimes are getting better at suppressing and using bad elections and propaganda: They’ve learned how to break the link between growth and democracy (for now) Why does inequality matter? Populism