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Computing - The Next 10 Years Infinite Memory and Bandwidth : Implications for Universal Access to Information. Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, USA April 6, 2001 Talk presented at Georgia Tech 10 th Anniversary Convocation. Future Technology.

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Computing - The Next 10 YearsInfinite Memory and Bandwidth : Implications for Universal Access to Information

Raj Reddy

Carnegie Mellon University

Pittsburgh, USA

April 6, 2001

Talk presented at Georgia Tech 10th Anniversary Convocation


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Future Technology

  • Computational power doubles every 18 months (Moore’s Law)

    • 100-fold improvement every 10 years

  • Disk Densities double every 12 months

    • 1000-fold improvement every 10 years

  • Optical bandwidth doubling every 9 months

    • 10000-fold improvement every 10 years

  • Infinite Bandwidth and Memory before Computation

    • Cost decreasing, density increasing


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What does the future hold?

We can see some glimpses of the future

  • Universities without walls,

  • Computers that never fail and self healing software

  • Every home with giga PCs connected by gigabit networks

  • Access to all the published creative works of the world

    • anytime anywhere anyone

  • Emergence of the World Bank of, not money, but Knowledge

  • Systems, so-called geriatric robotics, that help the disabled lead normal lives, and

  • Systems that give the rest of us superhuman capabilities, like getting a month’s work done in a day


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Universal Access to Information

Information at your fingertips

  • Access to all human knowledge:

    • Anyone

    • Anywhere

    • Anytime


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All Human Knowledge Recorded Information

  • Books

  • Periodicals (journals, newspapers)

  • Music, opera, dance

  • Paintings, Sculptures and Monuments

  • Movies, video

  • Databases, software

    Suppose all of this were on the Web


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Examples from www.ulib.org

  • Lecture: Michael Shamos on UL

  • Books: A Child’s History of England

  • Art: Greek Art


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Examples from www.ulib.org

  • Lecture: Michael Shamos on UL

  • Books: A Child’s History of England

  • Art: Greek Art


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What is a book? What is a digital book ?

  • Collection of static content

    • Collection of dynamic multimedia content

  • Linearly organised

    • Browsable, navigable

  • Selected by an Author as related

    • Selected by User as related

  • Occupying a single physical location

    • No physical existence

  • Physically bound between cover

    • Instantly Transmittable


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What is a Library?

  • Collection of items

  • Linearly organized (shelves)

  • Chosen by budget constraints

  • Occupying physical space

  • Cataloged for access


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What is a Digital Library?

  • Collection of digital items

    • (potentially huge)

  • Encompassing everything (someday)

  • Organized arbitrarily

  • Occupying no physical space

  • Fully content-searchable


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Universal Library Implications

  • Elimination of time, space, cost constraints

  • Democratization of information

    • “Knowledge is power”

  • Hyperlinks to related information

  • Preservation and Dissemination of Knowledge

    • faster and wider

    • Backup preservation

  • Preservation of culture


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Universal Library Implications

  • Research

    • Web of scholarly information, reviews

  • Teaching

  • Support for distance education

  • Academic publishing

  • Virtual museums

    • Interactivity


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Universal Library Applications

  • Acess to “Born Digital” Information

    • World produces a Billion Billion(1018) bytes of information every year(Lyman and Varian)

    • 90% is stored digitally

  • Digital museum

  • Digital tour guide

    • What’s in the Taj Mahal?


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Universal Library Applications

  • Research assistant

    • What did Newton write about color?

    • What are Moslem views on race?

  • Teaching resource

    • “Act out” books in virtual reality

    • Real-time explanations

  • Business information

  • Data mining


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    We Can Store Everything

    • 1 book = 500 pp.

      • 1MB uncompressed – 300KB compressed

      • 108 to 3x 108 books = ~1014 bytes = 100 terabytes

    • Over 100 million computers on the Internet

      • At 1 GB each, >100 petabytes now

    • 1 GB of disk costs ~$3

      • 100 terabytes < $300 thousand to $1 million


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    Non-textual Material

    • 1 Movie = 10 GB

      • 1 petabyte = 100,000 movies

      • All the movies ever made!

    • Audio

      • 1 petabyte = 3000 years of music

      • All music ever performed or recorded

    • Paintings and Photos @ 1 MB

      • 1 petabyte = 1 billion painting or photos


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    Non-textual Material

    • Gore’s Digital Earth

      • “A multi-resolution, three-dimensional representation of the planet, into which we can embed vast quantities of geo-referenced data.”

      • Area of Earth »1/2 peta m2

      • 1000 bytes/m2 feasible

      • 2 MB/m2 not practical yet Þ 1021 bytes = 1 zettabyte

        • {peta-, exa-, zetta-, yotta-}


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    Technological Challenges

    • Input (scanning, digitizing, OCR)

    • Data representation

      • text, notations, images, web pages

    • Navigation and Search

    • Multilingual Issues

    • Output (voice, pictures, virtual reality)

    • Synthetic Documents


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    Universal Library Design

    • Modular

      • Technology plug-ins (e.g. machine translation)

    • Distributed

      • Mirror sites

    • Multiple interfaces

      • Human (languages, cultures, literacy)

      • Machine


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    Universal Library Design

    • Speech input/output

    • Pictorial output

    • Language support

      • Translation assistants

    • Summarization tools

    • Synthetic documents

      • Encyclopedia-on-demand


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    Input Issues

    • Non-digital media

      • Conversion, scanning, correction

      • Triple keyboard, uncorrected OCR

    • Digital media

      • Formats, conversions, color representation

      • ASCII, HTML, SGML, XML, PDF, PS, TEX

      • JPEG, TIFF, GIF?


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    Input Issues

    • Structured matter

      • Musical notation, Laban

      • Chemistry

    • 3D Items

    • Resource allocation (what’s first?)

    • Duplication of effort (no registry)


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    Metadata

    • Data about an item not part of the item

      • Bibliographic

      • Format, medium, encoding, resolution

      • Provenance

      • Reliability, integrity

      • Permissions

    • Who generates metadata?


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    Navigation

    Making Sense Of The World’s Knowledge

    • Browsing, finding, searching, flying

    • Fractal view

      • Keys are granularity and connectivity

        • View whole collections or one glyph

    • Understandingstructure of information



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    MATHEMATICA Canonical Form:

    Integrate[

    Times[Power[E,Times[-1,Power[V1,2]]],

    Sin[Power[V1,2]]],

    {V1,0,Infinity}]

    Searching Mathematics


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    Multilingual Issues

    • Character sets

    • Representations

      Íîäà ôèçè÷åñêè íàõîäèòñÿ â çäàíèè Èçâåñòèé

      Нода физически находится в здании Известий

    • Multilingual navigation

    • Translation assistance


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    Synthetic Documents

    • Documents derived automatically from retrieved information

      • Multilingual translation

    • Abstracts, summaries, glossaries

    • Encyclopedia-on-demand


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    Information Reliability

    • Existence ¹ validity

    • Universal Library Philosophy

      • Avoid value judgments

      • Provide information from which users(and programs) can assess validity

    • Source, reputation, recency, reviews, consistency


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    Scaling Problems

    • Search services (e.g. Altavista) index >108 documents

      • Suppose there were 1012 ?

    • How can a billion users access the same item at once?


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    Policy Challenges

    • Use of copyrighted material

    • Economics (Who pays? Who gets?)

    • Privacy

    • Reliability of information

    • Change in the nature of teaching


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    Use Of ©Content

    • Philosophy: must pay for use

      • Authors, publishers will not suffer

    • Implied license

    • Automated permissions

    • Bulk licensing

    • Compulsory licensing

      • Owner CAN’T refuse; user MUST pay


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    Economics

    • Flat-fee subscriptions (e.g. HBO)

    • Metered use (electric company)

    • Microcharge (Tobias “clickl”)

    • Free (paid by government)

    • Automated permissions

    • Use measured by technology


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    Operating Model

    • Single portal for access to all information

    • Universal Library provides input, access, multilingual, output and synthesis tools

    • Universal Library will be a model scanning operation

    • Registry of digitized works


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    Operating Model

    • Specialized collections curated by specialists, provided to Universal Library

    • Foreign collection performed in foreign countries

    • Universal Library will be mirrored in ~12 sites around the world


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    Universal Library Status

    • >13,000 digital volumes

    • Art

    • Newspapers

    • Music, video

    • Portal to hundreds of other collections

      Visit http://www.ulib.org


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    Projects

    • Navigator

    • Academic electronic publishing

    • Electronic Union Catalog

    • Books out of copyright books out of print

    • Software distribution


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    Conclusions and Recommendations

    • Conclusions

      • Barely 10% of all public information is available on the Internet

      • Government needs to play a leadership role in developing digital libraries

      • Significant technical and operational challenges in migrating and maintaining holdings in digital form

      • Intellectual Property rights need to be addressed to facilitate creation and access digital libraries

    • Recommendations

      • Support research: meta data, scalability, multiple languages, security, and usability

      • Create testbeds: million book project

      • Place all public governmental information online

      • Preserve IP rights of creators by creating tax incentives for public use of online copyrighted information


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