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Computing - The Next 10 Years Infinite Memory and Bandwidth : Implications for Universal Access to Information. Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, USA April 6, 2001 Talk presented at Georgia Tech 10 th Anniversary Convocation. Future Technology.

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Computing - The Next 10 YearsInfinite Memory and Bandwidth : Implications for Universal Access to Information

Raj Reddy

Carnegie Mellon University

Pittsburgh, USA

April 6, 2001

Talk presented at Georgia Tech 10th Anniversary Convocation

future technology
Future Technology
  • Computational power doubles every 18 months (Moore’s Law)
    • 100-fold improvement every 10 years
  • Disk Densities double every 12 months
    • 1000-fold improvement every 10 years
  • Optical bandwidth doubling every 9 months
    • 10000-fold improvement every 10 years
  • Infinite Bandwidth and Memory before Computation
    • Cost decreasing, density increasing
what does the future hold
What does the future hold?

We can see some glimpses of the future

  • Universities without walls,
  • Computers that never fail and self healing software
  • Every home with giga PCs connected by gigabit networks
  • Access to all the published creative works of the world
    • anytime anywhere anyone
  • Emergence of the World Bank of, not money, but Knowledge
  • Systems, so-called geriatric robotics, that help the disabled lead normal lives, and
  • Systems that give the rest of us superhuman capabilities, like getting a month’s work done in a day
universal access to information
Universal Access to Information

Information at your fingertips

  • Access to all human knowledge:
    • Anyone
    • Anywhere
    • Anytime
all human knowledge recorded information
All Human Knowledge Recorded Information
  • Books
  • Periodicals (journals, newspapers)
  • Music, opera, dance
  • Paintings, Sculptures and Monuments
  • Movies, video
  • Databases, software

Suppose all of this were on the Web

examples from www ulib org
Examples from www.ulib.org
  • Lecture: Michael Shamos on UL
  • Books: A Child’s History of England
  • Art: Greek Art
examples from www ulib org8
Examples from www.ulib.org
  • Lecture: Michael Shamos on UL
  • Books: A Child’s History of England
  • Art: Greek Art
what is a book what is a digital book
What is a book? What is a digital book ?
  • Collection of static content
    • Collection of dynamic multimedia content
  • Linearly organised
    • Browsable, navigable
  • Selected by an Author as related
    • Selected by User as related
  • Occupying a single physical location
    • No physical existence
  • Physically bound between cover
    • Instantly Transmittable
what is a library
What is a Library?
  • Collection of items
  • Linearly organized (shelves)
  • Chosen by budget constraints
  • Occupying physical space
  • Cataloged for access
what is a digital library
What is a Digital Library?
  • Collection of digital items
    • (potentially huge)
  • Encompassing everything (someday)
  • Organized arbitrarily
  • Occupying no physical space
  • Fully content-searchable
universal library implications
Universal Library Implications
  • Elimination of time, space, cost constraints
  • Democratization of information
    • “Knowledge is power”
  • Hyperlinks to related information
  • Preservation and Dissemination of Knowledge
    • faster and wider
    • Backup preservation
  • Preservation of culture
universal library implications13
Universal Library Implications
  • Research
    • Web of scholarly information, reviews
  • Teaching
  • Support for distance education
  • Academic publishing
  • Virtual museums
    • Interactivity
universal library applications
Universal Library Applications
  • Acess to “Born Digital” Information
    • World produces a Billion Billion(1018) bytes of information every year(Lyman and Varian)
    • 90% is stored digitally
  • Digital museum
  • Digital tour guide
      • What’s in the Taj Mahal?
universal library applications15
Universal Library Applications
  • Research assistant
      • What did Newton write about color?
      • What are Moslem views on race?
  • Teaching resource
    • “Act out” books in virtual reality
    • Real-time explanations
  • Business information
  • Data mining
we can store everything
We Can Store Everything
  • 1 book = 500 pp.
    • 1MB uncompressed – 300KB compressed
    • 108 to 3x 108 books = ~1014 bytes = 100 terabytes
  • Over 100 million computers on the Internet
    • At 1 GB each, >100 petabytes now
  • 1 GB of disk costs ~$3
    • 100 terabytes < $300 thousand to $1 million
non textual material
Non-textual Material
  • 1 Movie = 10 GB
    • 1 petabyte = 100,000 movies
    • All the movies ever made!
  • Audio
    • 1 petabyte = 3000 years of music
    • All music ever performed or recorded
  • Paintings and Photos @ 1 MB
    • 1 petabyte = 1 billion painting or photos
non textual material18
Non-textual Material
  • Gore’s Digital Earth
    • “A multi-resolution, three-dimensional representation of the planet, into which we can embed vast quantities of geo-referenced data.”
    • Area of Earth »1/2 peta m2
    • 1000 bytes/m2 feasible
    • 2 MB/m2 not practical yet Þ 1021 bytes = 1 zettabyte
        • {peta-, exa-, zetta-, yotta-}
technological challenges
Technological Challenges
  • Input (scanning, digitizing, OCR)
  • Data representation
    • text, notations, images, web pages
  • Navigation and Search
  • Multilingual Issues
  • Output (voice, pictures, virtual reality)
  • Synthetic Documents
universal library design
Universal Library Design
  • Modular
    • Technology plug-ins (e.g. machine translation)
  • Distributed
    • Mirror sites
  • Multiple interfaces
    • Human (languages, cultures, literacy)
    • Machine
universal library design21
Universal Library Design
  • Speech input/output
  • Pictorial output
  • Language support
    • Translation assistants
  • Summarization tools
  • Synthetic documents
    • Encyclopedia-on-demand
input issues
Input Issues
  • Non-digital media
    • Conversion, scanning, correction
    • Triple keyboard, uncorrected OCR
  • Digital media
    • Formats, conversions, color representation
    • ASCII, HTML, SGML, XML, PDF, PS, TEX
    • JPEG, TIFF, GIF?
input issues23
Input Issues
  • Structured matter
    • Musical notation, Laban
    • Chemistry
  • 3D Items
  • Resource allocation (what’s first?)
  • Duplication of effort (no registry)
metadata
Metadata
  • Data about an item not part of the item
    • Bibliographic
    • Format, medium, encoding, resolution
    • Provenance
    • Reliability, integrity
    • Permissions
  • Who generates metadata?
navigation
Navigation

Making Sense Of The World’s Knowledge

  • Browsing, finding, searching, flying
  • Fractal view
    • Keys are granularity and connectivity
      • View whole collections or one glyph
  • Understandingstructure of information
searching mathematics27

MATHEMATICA Canonical Form:

Integrate[

Times[Power[E,Times[-1,Power[V1,2]]],

Sin[Power[V1,2]]],

{V1,0,Infinity}]

Searching Mathematics
multilingual issues
Multilingual Issues
  • Character sets
  • Representations

Íîäà ôèçè÷åñêè íàõîäèòñÿ â çäàíèè Èçâåñòèé

Нода физически находится в здании Известий

  • Multilingual navigation
  • Translation assistance
synthetic documents
Synthetic Documents
  • Documents derived automatically from retrieved information
    • Multilingual translation
  • Abstracts, summaries, glossaries
  • Encyclopedia-on-demand
information reliability
Information Reliability
  • Existence ¹ validity
  • Universal Library Philosophy
    • Avoid value judgments
    • Provide information from which users(and programs) can assess validity
  • Source, reputation, recency, reviews, consistency
scaling problems
Scaling Problems
  • Search services (e.g. Altavista) index >108 documents
    • Suppose there were 1012 ?
  • How can a billion users access the same item at once?
policy challenges
Policy Challenges
  • Use of copyrighted material
  • Economics (Who pays? Who gets?)
  • Privacy
  • Reliability of information
  • Change in the nature of teaching
use of content
Use Of ©Content
  • Philosophy: must pay for use
    • Authors, publishers will not suffer
  • Implied license
  • Automated permissions
  • Bulk licensing
  • Compulsory licensing
    • Owner CAN’T refuse; user MUST pay
economics
Economics
  • Flat-fee subscriptions (e.g. HBO)
  • Metered use (electric company)
  • Microcharge (Tobias “clickl”)
  • Free (paid by government)
  • Automated permissions
  • Use measured by technology
operating model
Operating Model
  • Single portal for access to all information
  • Universal Library provides input, access, multilingual, output and synthesis tools
  • Universal Library will be a model scanning operation
  • Registry of digitized works
operating model36
Operating Model
  • Specialized collections curated by specialists, provided to Universal Library
  • Foreign collection performed in foreign countries
  • Universal Library will be mirrored in ~12 sites around the world
universal library status
Universal Library Status
  • >13,000 digital volumes
  • Art
  • Newspapers
  • Music, video
  • Portal to hundreds of other collections

Visit http://www.ulib.org

projects
Projects
  • Navigator
  • Academic electronic publishing
  • Electronic Union Catalog
  • Books out of copyright books out of print
  • Software distribution
conclusions and recommendations
Conclusions and Recommendations
  • Conclusions
    • Barely 10% of all public information is available on the Internet
    • Government needs to play a leadership role in developing digital libraries
    • Significant technical and operational challenges in migrating and maintaining holdings in digital form
    • Intellectual Property rights need to be addressed to facilitate creation and access digital libraries
  • Recommendations
    • Support research: meta data, scalability, multiple languages, security, and usability
    • Create testbeds: million book project
    • Place all public governmental information online
    • Preserve IP rights of creators by creating tax incentives for public use of online copyrighted information
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