Progress Report to Typhoon Committee, 6-9 September 2010, Macao, China

1. Progress Report to Typhoon Committee, 6-9 September 2010, Macao, China AOP7: Verification of landfall typhoon forecastWMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP)Leading institutions: Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA East China RMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Centre Implementing duration: 2010-2012

2. Objectives • To strengthen the ability of forecasters and decision-makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts; • To assess the WMO-LTFDP’s impacts on the enhancement of the ability in typhoon forecast as well as its social and economic benefits; • To enhance the capability of forecasting landfall typhoon in the “Shanghai MHEWS” and to provide a better service for the Expo 2010; • To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting technique in the world; • To promote the implementation of the most advanced forecasting technique for landfall typhoon in WMO members.

3. Tasks Collection of real-time forecast data Verification of forecasts Forecast integration techniques Dissemination of products Benefit Assessment

4. Organization • International Scientific Steering Committee (ISSC) • Steering and evaluating the project activities • Nominated by WMO • Project Coordination Group (PCG) • To provide a key forum for the coordination of activities between the ISSC and the RSC • East China Regional Steering Committee (RSC) • In charge of the management and the implementation of the project • Director: Director of East China RMC/CMA. • Members: nominated by East China RMC/CMA.

5. Milestones • The proposal was proposed by Shanghai Meteorology Bureau/CMA (East China RMC) during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009. • The proposal was adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009. • The collaboration between NWP-TC Track Ensemble Forecast RDP and Typhoon Landfall FDP was discussed in Geneva, Feb. 2010. • The concept document was finalized in March 2010. • The ISSC was offically set up in March 2010.

6. The members of ISSC Prof. Lianshou CHEN (CMA/CAMS) (Lead scientist) Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/SMB) (Co-lead scientist) Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI) Dr. Baode CHEN (CMA/STI) Mr. Chuanhai QIAN (CMA/NMC) Mr. Masashi Kunitsugu (RSMC/JMA) Dr K. KANG (KMA/National Typhoon Center) Dr. Boon-Ying LEE (Hong Kong Observatory) Prof. Johnny CL CHAN (Hong Kong City University) Dr James FRANKLIN (NOAA) Dr Anna GHELLI (ECMWF) Dr Julian HEMING (UK Meteorological Office) Dr Beth EBERT (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Mr Ian SHEPHERD (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Dr Laurie WILSON (Meteorological Service of Canada) Dr Brian MILLS (Meteorological Service of Canada) Dr Barbara BROWN (NCAR) Dr. Tetsuo NAKAZAWA (WWRP/THORPEX) Dr. Hui YU (STI/CMA)

7. The members of PCG Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/ECRMC) Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI) Mr. Masashi Kunitsugu (RSMC/JMA) Ms. Haleh KOOTVAL (WMO/PWSP) Mr. Koji KUROIWA (WMO/TCP) Ms. Nanette LOMARDA (WMO/WWRP)

8. The members of RSC Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/ECRMC) Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI) Dr. Hui YU (CMA/STI) Dr. Baode CHEN (CMA/STI) Mr. Yinglong XU (CMA/NMC) Mr. Zhiqiang CHEN (CMA/ECRMC) Ms. Liying TAO (CMA/ECRMC)

9. Collaboration between NWP-TC Track Ensemble Forecast RDP and Typhoon Landfall FDP From TCTEFRDP to TLFDP • TC EPS products • Verification information on TC EPS products • Training (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products) From TLFDPto TCTEFRDP • Ideas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS products • Feedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public service • Training (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)

10. Progresses • Training Workshop on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast, 24-28 May, Shanghai • Real time collection system of the forecast products has been set up. • Real time display system of the forecast products has been set up. • Real time verification system of the track and intensity forecast products has been set up. • All the real time information are being provided to the EXPO weather forecasters through the operational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center.

11. 11 lecturers from 9 institutions Trainees: 20 forecasters from different meteorological bureaus of East China Region

13. List of forecast products collected in real time and the way of collection Yellow: GTS. Red: FTP. Green: FTP + CMA Intranet. Blue: CMA Intranet.

14. Real time display system (Only Chinese version is currently available) Official Forecast

15. Real time display system (Only Chinese version is currently available) Objective Forecast

16. Real time display system (Only Chinese version is currently available) TIGGE Ensemble Prediction

17. Real time display system (Only Chinese version is currently available) Gridded model output

18. Real time verification system(Track forecast verificaiton)

19. Real time verification system(Intensity forecast verificaiton)

20. Plan for 2011 To develop the project website (English version) To develop the verification system for tropical cyclone wind and precipitation forecast To improve the verification system for tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast, especially ensemble prediction and landfall forecast

21. Thank you for your attention and all your supports.