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Comments on Scenarios for health expenditures in some NMS

Comments on Scenarios for health expenditures in some NMS. Markus Schneider. Issues of long-term projections of health care expenditures in NMS. Convergence in health status Convergence in income Convergence in health expenditures Convergence in health financing.

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Comments on Scenarios for health expenditures in some NMS

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  1. Comments on Scenarios for health expenditures in some NMS Markus Schneider

  2. Issues of long-term projections of health care expenditures in NMS • Convergence in health status • Convergence in income • Convergence in health expenditures • Convergence in health financing

  3. (1) Convergence in health status (2004-2050)Life expectancy (AWP/AHEAD)

  4. (1) Convergence in health status (1994-2004)Annual growth of life expectancy, male at birth (Eurostat)

  5. (2) Convergence in income (2005-2050)Annual growth of GDP per capita (AWP/AHEAD)

  6. (3) Convergence in health care (2004-2050)Public Health Expenditures

  7. (3) Convergence in health expenditures (1994-2004)Annual growth of THE as % of GDP (various sources)

  8. (4) Convergence in health financing (2004-2050)Public Health Revenues

  9. (4) Convergence in health care financing

  10. Results of AHEAD long-term projections of health care expenditures in NMS • Convergence in health status: yes • Convergence in income: yes • Convergence in health expenditures yes/? • Convergence in health financing no/?

  11. Some conclusions • Make convergence assumptions clear • Make challenges of demographic change clear for change of structure of health care provision • Link expenditures and financing • Introduce covergence activities • Make health status dependent from economic, social, and health care environement

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