Climate modeling activity in the mri
Download
1 / 32

Climate Modeling Activity in the MRI - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 68 Views
  • Uploaded on

2010.10.19, WGNE26, Tokyo. Climate Modeling Activity in the MRI. Akio Kitoh Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute. MRI’s role. JMA. WMO, IOC, etc. Reports. Research Programs. disaster mitigation Programs. Technical Support. Contribution. etc. MRI.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Climate Modeling Activity in the MRI' - sachi


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Climate modeling activity in the mri

2010.10.19, WGNE26, Tokyo

Climate Modeling Activity in the MRI

Akio Kitoh

Climate Research Department

Meteorological Research Institute


MRI’s role

JMA

WMO, IOC, etc.

Reports

Research Programs

disaster mitigation Programs

Technical Support

Contribution

etc.

MRI

Forecast Research

Climate Research

Typhoon Research

Physical Meteorology Research

Atmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Research

Meteorological Satellite and Observation System Research

Seismology and Volcanology Research

Oceanographic Research

Geochemical Research


1. Earth System Model (MRI-ESM; MRI-CGCM3)2. Super-high-resolution Atmospheric Models (AGCM-20km and NHRCM-5km)


Climate model development at mri
Climate Model Development at MRI

Now in the 5th Phase

JMA’s Global Warming Research Project

2nd Phase (FY1995-1999)

3rd Phase (FY2000-2004)

4th Phase (FY2005-2009)

Global A-O Coupled Model

Earth System Model

CGCM1

A: 4°×5° L15

O: 2°×2.5° L21

CGCM2.0

A: T42 L30

O: 2°×2.5° L23

CGCM2.3

A: T42 L30

O: 2°×2.5° L23

CGCM3.0

A: TL95 L48

O: 0.5°×1° L50

CGCM3.1

A: TL159 L48

O: 0.5°×1° L51

MASINGAR

MRI-CCM

Chemical Transport Model

2nd Report

1995

3rd Report

2001

4th Report

2007

IPCC

AR5 2013

Regional Climate

RCM(40km)

RCM(20km)

RCM(20km)

NHRCM(4km)

CRCM(20km)

Global Warming Projection Report

Vol 1-3

(2006-2009)

Vol 4

(2001)

Vol 5

(2003)

Vol 6

(2005)

Vol 7

(2007)

Ver 1

(2003)

Ver 2

(2004)

Japanese Standard Climate Scenario


Mri earth system model

MASINGAR

Aerosol Chemical

Transport Model

MRI-CCM2

Atmos. Chemical

Climate Model

Sulfate, BC, OC, Dust, Sea-salt

Ozone (Strat. + Tropo.)

Atmosphere

Cloud Microphysics

interaction with aerosols

Land/Vegetation

Lake

Snow on Ice sheet

River

Sea ice

Ocean Biogeochemical Carbon Cycle

Ocean

T42 (~280km)

TL95 (~180km)

MRI-CGCM3

MRI Earth System Model

GSMUV

Land Ecosystem Carbon Cycle

AGCM

TL159 (~120km)

L48

(0.01hPa)

CO2

CO2

OGCM

Tripolar

1°× 0.5°

Coupler ‘Scup’

MRI.COM

Each component can be coupled with different resolutions


Ozone reproducibility and future projection
Ozone: reproducibility and future projection

PRM5

TOMS

Ozone hole area (m2 × 10-12)

obs

model

Total ozone seasonal change

Change in ozone hole area

Tropospheric ozone

Surface ozone (ppbv)

2007.05.09 06Z


Aerosol optical thickness
Aerosol optical thickness

MODIS retrieval:

2001~2006 mean

Model simulation:

2001~2006 mean




1. Earth System Model MRI-ESM1 (MRI-ESM; MRI-CGCM3)2. Super-high-resolution Atmospheric Models(AGCM-20km and NHRCM-5km)


Needs for high resolution models for adaptation studies
Needs for high resolution models for adaptation studies MRI-ESM1

• representation of topography depends on resolution (land-sea distribution, mountain height, snow-rain threshold, …)• low resolution models often fail to reproduce precipitation systems such as tropical cyclones, stationary front systems and blocking• high resolution models have better mean climate



20 km mesh agcm as the highest resolution climate model
20-km mesh AGCM as the highest resolution climate model MRI-ESM1

HighRes climate model

JMA seasonal fcst

Real topography

JMA extended fcst

HighRes for AR5

← Climate models for IPCC AR5 (2013) →

← Climate models for IPCC AR4 (2007) →


Future change in NH blocking frequency (JJA) MRI-ESM1

Matsueda

and Palmer

60km

20km

180km

120km

The higher horizontal resolution is required to accurately simulate

Euro-Atlantic blocking. The Euro-Atlantic blocking frequency is predicted to show a significant decrease in the future.


Precipitation change over Europe (JJA) MRI-ESM1

CMIP3 models

MRI AGCM

Matsueda and Palmer

wet

180km

(climate)

Unreliable?

similar

less blocking

dry

robust

Much weaker signals at high resolution

20km

(NWP)

CMIP3 models project wet (dry) conditions over north (south)

Europe. Robust signals from CMIP3 models.


Indian summer monsoon rainfall
Indian summer monsoon rainfall MRI-ESM1

IMD observation

20-km model

Orographic rainfall is successfully reproduced

Rajendran and Kitoh (2008) Current Science


Time slice experiments 20km 60km
Time-slice experiments: 20km/60km MRI-ESM1

JMA : Operational global NWP model from Nov 2007

MRI : Next generation climate model

Resolution: TL959(20km)/TL319(60km) with 60 layers

Time integration: Semi-Lagrangian Scheme (Yoshimura, 2004)

Cumulus convection: Prognostic Arakawa-Schubert

Three time periods

Present (1979-2003), Near future (2015-2039), Future (2075-2099)

How to prescribe future SSTs

For 60-km model, ensemble runs

• Four different SST anomalies

• Three I.C. ensembles each

Use CMIP3 multi-model SST changes


Hwdi 60 km vs 20 km
MRI-ESM1HWDI 60-km vs 20-km

60-km model ensemble

20-km model

near future

end 21c

HWDI: heat wave duration


R5d 60 km vs 20 km
MRI-ESM1R5d 60-km vs 20-km

60-km model ensemble

20-km model

near future

Heavy precipitation increases even in near-future but not statistically significant; it is significant almost everywhere in Asia at the end of the 21st century

end 21c

There is model resolution dependency; 20-km model projects larger increase in RX5D

R5d: greatest 5-day total precipitation

no significance test for 20-km model


Tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclones MRI-ESM1

MEXT Kyo-sei Project (FY2002-2006)

and KAKUSHIN Program (FY2007-2011)

using the Earth Simulator by the MRI group

It is likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.

There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. [IPCC AR4]


Wind profile change at max wind speed
Wind Profile Change MRI-ESM1(at max wind speed)

Vertical p level

Sample Num=1035

Sample Num=937

Distance from center

unit:m/s

・Large increase in strong wind radius at mid level of troposphere

・Large change of inner-core wind velocity

#gray color=no significant difference


Streamflow
Streamflow MRI-ESM1

20-km model: Present

Future-Present

• Increasing flood risk over the Parana river basin• Decreasing streamflow in the Andean mountains

DecreaseIncrease


Cooperation activities of the MRI group MRI-ESM1(by Earth Simulator computed model outputsfor adaptation studies)

Adaptation study in Coastal Zones of Caribbean countries: Barbados(one, 2005), Belize (one, 2005)

Adaptation studies in Colombiancoastal areas, high mountain ecosystems: Colombia (two, 2005; two, 2009)

Adaptation to Climate Impacts in the Coastal Wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico: Mexico (two, 2006)

Adaptation to Rapid Glacier Retreat in the Tropical Andes: Peru(one, 2006; 2010?), Ecuador (one, 2006; one, 2009), Bolivia (one, 2006)

Amazon Dieback: Brazil (two, 2008)

Cooperation under the JICA(Japan International Cooperation Agency)funds

  • Adaptation studies in agriculture in Argentina: Argentina (three, 2008)

  • Adaptation studies in monsoon Asia:Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam (one each, 2008 & 2009)

  • Adaptation studies in Yucatan wetland: Mexico (three, 2009)

  • Adaptation studies in South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay (2010 & 2011)

Cooperation under the World Bank funds

Other collaborations with India, Korea, Thailand, USA, Spain, …


Kakushin team extremes time slice experiments
Kakushin Team-Extremes Time-Slice Experiments MRI-ESM1

Time slice

experiments

Prediction of regional climate by one-way nested NHM

CMIP3 AOGCMs

20km,60km AGCM

Regional Climate Model

NHM5km

NHM2/1km

A

A

SST

Nested in the AGCM20km

Lower B.C.

Nested in the NHM5km

Projected SST

O

AGCM/NHM are climate model versions of the JMA operational NWP models


Jma nhm
JMA NHM MRI-ESM1


Changes in pdf cdf of precipitation jun oct
Changes in pdf/cdf of precipitation (Jun-Oct) MRI-ESM1

pdf/cdf of daily precipitation (all Japan)

pdf/cdf of hourly precipitation (all Japan)

End 21c

End 21c

Near-future

Near-future

Present

Present

Near-future: No change in daily precipitation

Increase of strong hourly precipitation

→increase of short-term strong rain

End 21c: Increase of strong both of daily and hourly precipitation

daily 40% increase for > 150mm/day

hourly 60% increase for > 50mm/hour


Upward motion top 3 nhm5km
Upward motion (top 3): NHM5km MRI-ESM1

a)

taller convection

Present

c)

F

P

Mean 3rd

Updraft (m/s)

harder to occur

S

N

Pacific Ocean

Japan

Japan Sea

LCL:

463→468m

LCL-LFC:

76→83hPa

CAPE:

1139→

1538J/kg

CIN:

26→30J/kg

b)

Future

F

P

DRY

Mean Top3

Updraft (m/s)

Pacific Ocean

Japan

Japan Sea


Schematic of changing characteristics
Schematic of changing characteristics MRI-ESM1

Dry

Higher SST

Supply of high qeair mass at the low level

More intense convections

Larger convective instability

Increment of intense precipitation

Delay of the northward movement of the Baiu front

Jet stream will shift southward.


Relationship between gw and enso

MRI-CGCM2 MRI-ESM1

Relationship between GW and ENSO

Precip Future–Present (Jul)

Precip El Niño–La Niña (Jul)


Comparisons of locations and values of heavy rainfall events

Comparisons of locations and values of heavy rainfall events MRI-ESM1

NHM5km

Present

NHM5km

Future

Obs

>500mm/day

>1000mm/day

>300mm/day


July precipitation characteristics precip wet days sdii

July Precipitation Characteristics: precip MRI-ESM1・wet days・SDII

OBS(APHRO)

AGCM-20km

RCM-5km

RCM-2km

We find that RCM-5km is applicable for projections of future changes in daily precipitation, while RCM-2km for hourly precipitation

# all data are averaged in 20-km grid


ad