So Where Are We (The World) on This Climate Change Problem?. By Edward L. Miles Bloedel Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, School of Marine Affairs, and Team Leader JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System (CSES) University of Washington. Background.
ByEdward L. MilesBloedel Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, School of Marine Affairs, and Team LeaderJISAO/SMA Climate Impacts GroupCenter for Science in the Earth System (CSES)University of Washington
Why I Think What I Do
1. global climate change is a problem of long time scale;
2. all policy measures will be indeterminate in their ultimate impacts;
3. indeterminacy, when linked to issues of costs, changing lifestyles, and distributive inequities, creates large obstacles to significant short-run policy action;
4. benefit-cost analytics tend to discount the future heavily beyond 2 decades.
(synergy or contingency relationships).
The Framework Convention on Climate Change(FCCC), Art. 2
The ultimate objective of this Convention …is to achieve…stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Growing Evidence of “Slippery Slopes” and “Tipping Points”:Cumulative, Multiple Stresses and Changes Irreversible on Human Timescales
Have we seriously underestimated both the magnitude & rate of change?
Thinking About Targets and Thresholds
WAIS disintegration at 2-4C; disintegration of Greenland ice sheet at 1C, along with widespread bleaching of coral reefs.
Source: Cain, Hansen, et al. 2004
Source:Cain, Hansen et al. 2004
Source: Cain, Hansen, et al .2004