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The Flight Path to NextGen: How We Can Get There

The Flight Path to NextGen: How We Can Get There. Bob Thompson, MIC and Joe DelliCarpini, SOO WFO BOX MIC/HIC Meeting April 19-23, 2010. Our WFO Flight Plan. Address the Office Culture 3-Hourly TAFs Enhanced Short Term Forecasting Digital Aviation Services. Key Points.

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The Flight Path to NextGen: How We Can Get There

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  1. The Flight Path to NextGen:How We Can Get There Bob Thompson, MIC and Joe DelliCarpini, SOO WFO BOX MIC/HIC Meeting April 19-23, 2010

  2. Our WFO Flight Plan • Address the Office Culture • 3-Hourly TAFs • Enhanced Short Term Forecasting • Digital Aviation Services

  3. Key Points Take incremental steps Staff involvement and ownership is crucial for success WFO BOX is building on groundwork done by WFOs RLX/GSP Our philosophy has been to develop a manageable process, where forecasters interact with model data

  4. Phase 1:Address the Office Culture • Listen to staff ideas/concerns • Communicate purpose • Nurture a climate of trust • Earn staff’s buy-in of vision • Get staff to believe in themselves

  5. Transformed the USS Benfold from an underperforming ship to the “best damn ship in the Navy”

  6. Phase 2:3-Hourly TAFs

  7. 3-Hourly TAFs • Why? • Result of site visits to BOS TRACON and ATCT • FAA wants “fresh” information • Fits in well with enhanced short term philosophy • How? • In conjunction with CWSU • Meet with local users (ARTCC, ATCTs, TRACONs) • Determine which sites need 3-hourly TAFs and for which time(s) • Local policy developed at WFO (Local Office Team)

  8. 3-Hourly TAFs • WFO BOX issues AMDs for BOS/BDL at 09z/15z/21z • Correlates with morning/afternoon “push” briefings

  9. Phase 3:Enhanced Short Term Forecasting

  10. Approach to Enhanced Short Term • Staff ownership and buy in • Find the best way to get there! • Chartered Forecast Operations Team to implement objectives • With LOT blessing, adjusted shift duties and rotation to meet workload • Leverage resources • “Short Term/Long Term” approach most efficient • Put effort and detail into the short term grids • Less time with Days 4-7! • Supported by verification • Supported by New England WFO collaboration policy

  11. Enhanced Short Term Concept • Be as definitive as possible within first 24 hours • Hourly resolution • Tight gradients for PoP, Sky Cover • If you put detail into the grids, words come out fine • Keep the forecast “fresh” via 3 hourly updates • Folds into Decision Support Services

  12. Resources to keep the Forecast “Fresh” • GFE Forecast Monitor • GFS LAMP (LAVRUC) guidance for next 3 to 6 hours

  13. Phase 4:Digital Aviation Services

  14. Digital Aviation Services • Why? • There is a demand for this information!

  15. March 27-31, 2010 Floods

  16. TAF Sites What About Here???

  17. Digital Aviation Services • Why? • On the path to NextGen • Integrate Aviation forecasting into GFE • Increases efficiency of forecast operations • “Heavy lifting” for all elements done in GFE • Generate consistent TAFs • Capability for additional TAF sites • Point and Click?

  18. Digital Aviation Services • How? • WFO BOX is now operational with ceiling and “improved” visibility grids • Similar approach as with Enhanced Short Term • Hourly detailed grids (0-24 hours) • Forecast Operations Team developed the plan • Built upon experiences from RLX and GSP

  19. Digital Aviation Services • The Plan • Populate grids for 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z TAFs • Interact with model data (LAV, MAV, MET, etc) • GFE formatter produces TAFs • AMDs issued through AvnFPS but envision 3-hourly “AMDs” via GFE in future • Hourly graphics will be posted on the web • Verification of “non-TAF” sites

  20. Digital Aviation Services • The Grids Involved • T, Td, Wind, Wind Gust • Sky, PoP, Wx • PredHgt (CondPredHgt) • PredVsby (CondPredVsby) • CigHgt, Vsby • LLWS, LLWSHgt • Step by step concise reference document

  21. Procedures

  22. “CompareVsbyPredHgt” Group

  23. CigHgt Grid

  24. Vsby Grid

  25. Low Level Wind Shear

  26. TAF Formatter

  27. Verification FAR POD

  28. TAF Verification: IFR

  29. The Flight Path to NextGen Summary • Take incremental steps – don’t do it all at once! • 3-Hourly TAFs • Enhanced Short Term Forecasting • Digital Aviation Services • Come up with a strategy as an office • Use the team approach • Staff buy-in and ownership are crucial • Use experiences of other WFOs as a guide • RLX, GSP, BOX “We’re Here To Help”

  30. The Flight Path to NextGen:How We Can Get There QUESTIONS ??? Robert.Thompson@noaa.gov (508) 823-1983

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