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How is Scotland’s population changing? What are the implications?

How is Scotland’s population changing? What are the implications?. Kirsty MacLachlan Esther Roughsedge. Fire Starter Festival 2018 # fsf2018. National Records of Scotland: Telling the Story of Scotland. Preserving the past. Recording the present. Informing the future.

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How is Scotland’s population changing? What are the implications?

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  1. How is Scotland’s population changing? What are the implications? Kirsty MacLachlan Esther Roughsedge Fire Starter Festival 2018 #fsf2018

  2. National Records of Scotland: Telling the Story of Scotland Preserving the past Recording the present Informing the future #fsf2018

  3. #fsf2018

  4. Scotland’s population was the highest ever in 2016 • Number of people #fsf2018

  5. Since ~2000, Scotland’s population has increased mostly due to migration #fsf2018

  6. Most migrants are aged 18-32 Date: 2015-16 #fsf2018

  7. Populations of most European countries are projected to increase

  8. Population is projected to decline in one third of Scottish council areas #fsf2018

  9. Comparison of the overall population change and change in the working age population

  10. Population projections under different migration assumptions Millions of people 2016 #fsf2018

  11. Most population growth is among pensioners Projected population change, 2016-2041 Persistent deprivation gap -> greater regional inequalities -> greater rural vs urban inequalities

  12. Implications Increased working age population -> greater tax revenues Lower population increase than the rest of the UK -> Vulnerable block grant Lower migration -> Skills shortage exacerbated Higher migration -> Skills shortage reduced Ageing population -> Challenges (greater demand for public services) -> Opportunities (capacity to contribute longer) #fsf2018

  13. Life expectancy is increasing Life expectancy at birth #fsf2018

  14. Life expectancy varies across Scotland 2014-2016 Council area #fsf2018

  15. UK areas with the lowestlife expectancy – most are in Scotland #fsf2018

  16. Scotland’s population is ageing

  17. Deaths from circulatory diseases are decreasing, while deaths from dementia and Alzheimer’s are increasing #fsf2018

  18. Deaths from alcohol, drugs, and probable suicides 2012 #fsf2018

  19. People in Scotland have fewer children than in other parts of the UK #fsf2018

  20. People are increasingly living alone or in smaller households Number of households, by household size #fsf2018

  21. Implications Fewer children -> fewer future working age population -> greater pensioner dependency ratio Gap between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy -> more years in poor health -> greater social and economic costs Persistent deprivation gap -> greater regional inequalities -> greater rural vs urban inequalities #fsf2018

  22. Key messages • Scotland’s population is: • at its highest ever at 5,404,700 • increasing, mostly due to migration • ageing Life expectancy is lower in Scotland than in the rest of the UK Fertility is lower in Scotland than in the rest of the UK • Deaths since 2000 • from circulatory diseases declined • from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease increased #fsf2018

  23. How to find out more NRScotland.gov.uk ScotlandsCensus.gov.uk statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk #fsf2018

  24. Reaching a wider audience #fsf2018

  25. Infographics and data visualisations We have lots of information and data We should maximise their impact by: reaching a wider audience promoting our messages #fsf2018

  26. Infographics • Self-contained visual stories • Easy and quick to understand • We produce one for each of our main publications • In the publication • Stand-alone • We use Inkscape (free software)

  27. #fsf2018

  28. Interactive data visualisations Allow users to visually navigate big data sets personalisingtheir experience NRS uses R/Shiny Shiny: an R package that enables you to write interactive web applications entirely in R #fsf2018

  29. Interactive visualisations scotland.shinyapps.io/babynames Victoria

  30. Interactive visualisations scotland.shinyapps.io/babynames

  31. Interactive visualisations https://scotland.shinyapps.io/population-projection-variants-scotland-uk/

  32. Interactive visualisations https://scotland.shinyapps.io/population-projection-variants-scotland-uk/

  33. Twitter Helps reach a wider audience Newspaper circulations are falling Scotsman print circulation = 23,000 Herald = 34,000 Daily Record = 191,000 @NatRecordsScot averages ~200,000 page impressions per month Tweets about ‘Scotland’s Population’ had ~50,000 page impressions (average ~2,000 per tweet) #fsf2018

  34. #fsf2018

  35. NRS blog: open book blog.nrscotland.gov.uk

  36. Statistician videos blog.nrscotland.gov.uk

  37. Contact details statisticscustomerservices@nrscotland.gov.uk www.nrscotland.gov.uk ScotlandsCensus.gov.uk @NatRecordsScot #fsf2018

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