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1 st GODEX-NWP meeting: Météo-France status report

1 st GODEX-NWP meeting: Météo-France status report. Jean-François Mahfouf and many colleagues CNRM/GMAP/OBS (Toulouse, France). Outline. Computing platform Model configurations Use of observations Recent operational changes Ongoing developments and future plans.

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1 st GODEX-NWP meeting: Météo-France status report

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  1. 1st GODEX-NWP meeting:Météo-France status report Jean-François Mahfouf and many colleagues CNRM/GMAP/OBS (Toulouse, France)

  2. Outline • Computingplatform • Model configurations • Use of observations • Recentoperational changes • Ongoingdevelopments and future plans

  3. Evolution of HPC at Météo-France Page 3

  4. Super-computers at Météo-France Initial configuration (2013) 2 x 1000 nodes 1 node = 24 CPUs Intel « Ivy Bridge » 50 000 cores / 1 Pflops Recent upgrade (2016): 2 x 1800 nodes 1 node = 40 CPUs Intel « Broadwell IP » 150 000 cores / 5 Pflops 2 x BULL B710 DLC 1 cluster for operations (ECA) 1 cluster for research (CNC)

  5. Global model ARPEGE Spectral model with variable resolution: TL1198c2.2L105 # Dx from 7.5 to 36 km # 105 vertical levels from 10 m to 0.1 hPa • Incremental 4D-Var assimilation (6-h window and 30 min time-slots) : • 2 loops of minimization : TL149c1L105 (40 iterations) + TL399c1L105 (40 iterations) • Background error variances and correlationlengthsfrom an Ensemble Data Assimilation system (4D-Var atlowerresolution: TL479/TL149 ) with 25 members Forecasts (cut-off and ranges) : 00 UTC (1h10/54h), 00 UTC (2h15/102h), 06 UTC (3h/72h), 12 UTC (1h50/144h), 18 UTC (3h/60h)

  6. Observation evolution in ARPEGE available CONV SAT used

  7. Observations in ARPEGE • Satellite observations (90 %) • -> Infra-red radiances (70 %) • IASI (METOP-A + B) • CrIS (Suomi-NPP) /AIRS (Aqua) • CSR from GEO satellites • -> Microwave radiances • AMSU-A (NOAA/Aqua/METOP) • MHS/AMSU-B (NOAA/METOP) • ATMS (Suomi-NPP) • SSMI/S (DMSP F17/F18) • SAPHIR (Megha-Tropiques) • -> GNSS-RO +Ground-based • -> AMVs + Scatterometerwinds • Conventional observations (10 %) • -> Aircrafts, surface, RAOB 21 x 106/day IASI Fraction of observation types Spatial thinning of satellite obsbetween 250 and 125 km

  8. Observations in ARPEGE IR 70 % MW 12% IR 25 % MW 25% IASI Fraction of observation types (conv = 10 %) DFS: information content (conv = 25%)

  9. The MF upper air network (2017) EUMETNET-ASAP 1 manual 4 automatic 19 RS

  10. The upper air network

  11. Regional model AROME • Spectral limited area non-hydrostatic model with explicit moist convection (since 12/2008) • Horizontal resolution : 1.3 km (*) • 90 vertical levels (from 5 m up to 10 hPa) (*) • 3D-Var assimilation (1-h window) + IAU (*) • Coupling files : hourly forecasts from global model ARPEGE • Forecast range : from 7 to 42 hours (8 times a day) – cut-off: between 20 min and 3.5 h • Nowcasting version (operational since 04/2016) : • forecasts up to 6 h issued every hour (assimilation not cycled) • Assimilation window [-10 min, + 10 min] • Cut-off : 10 min (*) since 04/ 2015

  12. Observations in AROME 3D-Var Satellite observations = 10 % • Radar DOW + Z (RH) • Surface (SYNOP + RADOME) • Radiosoundings (BUFR HR) • Aircrafts • GEO radiances (METEOSAT) withTs inversion (5 channels) • LEO satellites (IASI, AMSU, AMVs, SCAT) • Groundbased GNSS (ZTD) Spatial thinning of satellite obs between 80 and 125 km Data availability for AROME-NWC : radar, surface, IASI, AMSU-A/MHS radiances (from Lannion) and ASCAT winds (from EARS)

  13. Satellite observations in AROME 3D-Var iasi s s radar surf radar 3D-Var with hourly cycling + Model top at 10 hPa

  14. Information content of observations Rainy period Dry period

  15. Recent operational changes (OBS) • Changes made operational in December 2015: • Increased horizontal density of radar data in AROME: 15 -> 8 km and revisedtuningparameters of the Bayesian inversion • Assimilation of oceanwindsfromRapidScatscatterometeronboard ISS (until August 2016) • 5 water vapourchannelsfromCrIS/Suomi-NPP • Assimilation of AMVs (x4) and CSR from HIMAWARI-8 (in replacement of MTSAT-2) • Monitoring of microwave radiances from GMI/GPM-Core • Use of IASI radiances providedthrough the GTS (set of 500 channels -> 314 monitored and 123 assimilated) • Use of in-situ ocean surface observations in BUFR format Page 15

  16. Revisions to the operational NWP systems • In 2016: • April: AROME Nowcasting • June: Migration of all the operational NWP suites on the HPC BULL v2 systems • June: AROME overseas in dynamical adaptation (2.5 km / 5 domains) • December: PEARO (convective scale ensemble prediction system) – 12 members (2.5 km) – 09 and 21 UTC up to 42 hours – LBC from PEARP • In 2017: • ALADIN overseas (8 km / 4 domains) discontinued • Current e-suite: • Changes to the ARPEGE physics : prognostic convection scheme with cloud microphysics (PCMT) – improved surface scheme (ISBA 3-L, revised soil and vegetation physiography) • Observations : new instruments + increased usage of existing ones (30 % increase: 21 -> 28 M/day) Page 16

  17. Increased usage of IASI radiances Higher spatial horizontal sampling: 125 km -> 100 km 5 additional channels in the ozone absorption band Use of IR emissivity atlas over continents for skin temperature retrieval => towards assimilation of low peaking channels over land

  18. Assimilation of microwave radiances (1) GMI onboard GPM-Core (NASA/JAXA mission) Conical scanning radiometer (10 -> 183 GHz) Launched in 2014 2 WV channels at 183 GHz

  19. Assimilation of microwave radiances (2) MWHS-2 onboard FY3-C (CMA mission) Cross-track sounder (T, q) Launched in 2013 3 WV channels at 183 GHz

  20. Assimilation of geostationary satellites Increased horizontal thinning of clear sky radiances : 250 -> 125 km Use of METEOSAT-8 (replacing METEOSAT-7) over Indian Ocean: CSR + AMVs (03/2017) Additional channels for METEOSAT-8 and 10: 4 window channels over oceans

  21. Assimilation of ground based GNSS Revised « white list » of (station/analysis centre) Use of variational bias correction with 3 predictors (constant, DZ(1000-300 hPa, TCWV) ARPEGE 20 % increase

  22. Assimilation of ground based GNSS Revised « white list » of (station/analysis centre) Use of variational bias correction with 3 predictors (constant, DZ(1000-300 hPa, TCWV) AROME 100 % increase

  23. Variational bias correction in ARPEGE Page 23

  24. Variational bias correction in ARPEGE Page 24

  25. Variational bias correction in ARPEGE Z V RH Forecast scores : Static BC – Var BC   Page 25

  26. Future operational changes (OBS) • Planned for 2018: • Monitoring and assimilation of European radars (OPERA) in AROME • Monitoring of microwave radiances from the Russian microwave sounder MTVZA-GY on Meteor-M (N1) • Assimilation of low peaking IASI channels over continents • Monitoring and assimilation of OSCAT ocean winds (Ku-band radar) onboard Scatsat-1 • Monitoring and assimilation of HLOS winds from the ESA lidar mission ADM-AEOLUS • Use of VarBC for aircraft measurements • Radiances from local acquistion (DBNet): South America • Use of inter-channel correlations of observation errors for hyperspectral infrared sounders • Use of humidity data from aircrafts measurements Page 26

  27. Other studies • Increased usage of existing observations • Assimilation of IR and MW radiances in cloudy and precipitating areas for ARPEGE and AROME (=> improved data assimilation algorithms) • Preparation of future satellite missions • Wind scatterometer from CFOSAT (launch mid-2018) • Hyperspectral infrared geosounder IRS/MTG (launch in 2023) -> data compression issues • IR (IASI-NG) and MW (MWS/MWI/ICI + SCA/GNSS-RO) instruments on board METOP-SG (launch in 2022) • Feasibility studies on hypothetical instruments (microwave geosounder, hyperspectral microwave sounder, constellations of nano-satellites, …) Page 27

  28. Observation usage summary Page 28

  29. Thank you for your attention !

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