Forecasting Scour Related Mine Burial Using a Parameterized Model
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 4

Forecasting Scour Related Mine Burial Using a Parameterized Model PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 81 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Forecasting Scour Related Mine Burial Using a Parameterized Model Carl T. Friedrichs and Arthur C. Trembanis Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA Approach Use NOAA WW3 model to forecast local wave height (calibrated with Wiberg)

Download Presentation

Forecasting Scour Related Mine Burial Using a Parameterized Model

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Forecasting scour related mine burial using a parameterized model

Forecasting Scour Related Mine Burial Using a Parameterized Model

Carl T. Friedrichs and Arthur C. Trembanis

Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA

Approach

Use NOAA WW3 model to forecast local wave height (calibrated with Wiberg)

Use Whitehouse scour model (“DRAMBUIE”) to predict scour (calibrated with Elmore et al.)

Post on web predicted burial since start of IRB experiment including 5-day forecast

Conclusions

Rapid scour occurs for increasing Ub > 1.25 Ucr

Rapid burial follows when Ub drops below 0.75 Ucr

Weather forecasts may introduce more uncertainty than burial model

Web forecasts provide inputs (wave height, orbital velocity, wind) for other modelers

Interactive web-based program provides insight into parameter sensitivity

(Friedrichs, C.T., and A.C. Trembanis, 2003. Forecasting scour related mine burial using a parameterized model.

ONR Mine Burial Prediction 3rd Annual Meeting, St. Petersburg, FL, 28-29 January )


Forecasting scour related mine burial using a parameterized model

40

30

20

10

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

400

450

500

350

80

60

40

20

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Sequence of Hindcast/Forecasts of Waves and Burial for Indian Rocks Beach Field Site

(D = 0.47 m, d = 0.19 mm, fw = 0.008, h =12 m, Tw = 7 s, Ub = 0.28 Hs w/[sinh(kh)]

2.5

2

Significant Wave

Height (meters)

1.5

1

0.5

0

Noon EST Tues Jan 28

= Hour 485

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1.25 Ucr

RMS Wave Orbital

Velocity (cm/s)

0.75 Ucr

Rapid scour

occurs for increasing

Ub > 1.25 Ucr

Rapid burial

follows when Ub drops below 0.75 Ucr

Mine Burial (percent)

Bmin = 0.1

Hours Since January 8 2003 12:00 zulu

Thin colored lines = hindcasts/forecasts updated every 12 hrs o = Latest available hindcast/forecast as of hour 384


Forecasting scour related mine burial using a parameterized model

40

30

20

10

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

400

450

500

350

80

60

40

20

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Sequence of Hindcast/Forecasts of Waves and Burial for Indian Rocks Beach Field Site

(D = 0.47 m, d = 0.19 mm, fw = 0.008, h =12 m, Tw = 7 s, Ub = 0.28 Hs w/[sinh(kh)]

2.5

2

Significant Wave

Height (meters)

1.5

1

0.5

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Revised forecasts of wave height lead to drastic changes in forecast burial

RMS Wave Orbital

Velocity (cm/s)

Weather forecasts may introduce more uncertainty than burial model(!)

Mine Burial (percent)

Bmin = 0.1

Hours Since January 8 2003 12:00 zulu

Thin colored lines = hindcasts/forecasts updated every 12 hrs o = Latest available hindcast/forecast as of hour 384


Forecasting scour related mine burial using a parameterized model

Interactive Mine Burial Model Using WW3 Forecasts for IRB Field Site

Accessible via www.vims.edu/~cfried/MBP


  • Login