Immigration and the irish labour market
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Immigration and the Irish Labour Market. Brian McCormick FAS. Overview. Economic and Labour Market Background Migration Trends Impact of Migration on the Economy Medium-Term Outlook Implications of Qualification Recognition. Economic Background. GNP averaging = 5%

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Immigration and the Irish Labour Market

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Immigration and the irish labour market

Immigration and the Irish Labour Market

Brian McCormick

FAS


Immigration and the irish labour market

Overview

  • Economic and Labour Market Background

  • Migration Trends

  • Impact of Migration on the Economy

  • Medium-Term Outlook

  • Implications of Qualification Recognition


Immigration and the irish labour market

Economic Background

  • GNP averaging = 5%

  • Employment growth = 4.5%

  • Unemployment = 4.3%

  • Concerns:

    - Inflation

    - Euro appreciation

    - Balance of Payment Deficit

    - Construction sector

  • Need to increase R&D


Immigration and the irish labour market

Employment Growth by Sector 2001-2005


Immigration and the irish labour market

EU Unemployment Rates


Net migration history 1871 2005

Net Migration History 1871-2005


Immigration and the irish labour market

Gross Migration Flows 1987-2005


Nationality of immigrants 1996 2005

Nationality of Immigrants 1996-2005


Immigration and the irish labour market

Labour Force by Nationality 1998-2005


Immigration and the irish labour market

PPSN Allocations to EU10 (3-Month Average)


Eu10 immigration by nationality

EU10 Immigration by Nationality


Working population 2002 2005

Working Population 2002-2005


What are they doing

What are they doing?


Immigration and the irish labour market

Education and Earnings of Migrants

  • Non-nationals have higher education than Irish across all sectors / occupations

  • Earnings much lower than the average for the sectors where they work.

  • EU10 workers earning an average of €365 per week


Immigration and the irish labour market

Impact of Immigration

  • ESRI Study 1993-2003

    - Added 3% to GNP

    - Kept high-skill wages down (-4/5%)

    - Increase employment (+2%)

    - Could have been better (0.7%)

  • Recent EU and UK studies have been positive


Immigration and the irish labour market

Displacement in 2005?


Immigration and the irish labour market

Skills and Labour Shortage Forecast


Immigration and the irish labour market

No. of Births 1960 -2002


Immigration and the irish labour market

Growth Decomposition 1994-2004


Immigration and the irish labour market

Estimated Graduate Requirement 2004-2014 (Optimistic)


Immigration and the irish labour market

Estimated Graduate Requirement 2004-2014 (Pessimistic)


Immigration and the irish labour market

Implications of Qualifications Recognition

  • Attracts the best

  • Bridges the productivity gap

  • Increases flexibility

  • Reduces business uncertainty


Immigration and the irish labour market

Implications of Qualifications Recognition

  • Reduces the ‘brain drain’?

  • Reduces income inequality?

  • Reduces conflict?


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