Immigration and the irish labour market
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Immigration and the Irish Labour Market. Brian McCormick FAS. Overview. Economic and Labour Market Background Migration Trends Impact of Migration on the Economy Medium-Term Outlook Implications of Qualification Recognition. Economic Background. GNP averaging = 5%

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Immigration and the Irish Labour Market

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Immigration and the Irish Labour Market

Brian McCormick

FAS


Overview

  • Economic and Labour Market Background

  • Migration Trends

  • Impact of Migration on the Economy

  • Medium-Term Outlook

  • Implications of Qualification Recognition


Economic Background

  • GNP averaging = 5%

  • Employment growth = 4.5%

  • Unemployment = 4.3%

  • Concerns:

    - Inflation

    - Euro appreciation

    - Balance of Payment Deficit

    - Construction sector

  • Need to increase R&D


Employment Growth by Sector 2001-2005


EU Unemployment Rates


Net Migration History 1871-2005


Gross Migration Flows 1987-2005


Nationality of Immigrants 1996-2005


Labour Force by Nationality 1998-2005


PPSN Allocations to EU10 (3-Month Average)


EU10 Immigration by Nationality


Working Population 2002-2005


What are they doing?


Education and Earnings of Migrants

  • Non-nationals have higher education than Irish across all sectors / occupations

  • Earnings much lower than the average for the sectors where they work.

  • EU10 workers earning an average of €365 per week


Impact of Immigration

  • ESRI Study 1993-2003

    - Added 3% to GNP

    - Kept high-skill wages down (-4/5%)

    - Increase employment (+2%)

    - Could have been better (0.7%)

  • Recent EU and UK studies have been positive


Displacement in 2005?


Skills and Labour Shortage Forecast


No. of Births 1960 -2002


Growth Decomposition 1994-2004


Estimated Graduate Requirement 2004-2014 (Optimistic)


Estimated Graduate Requirement 2004-2014 (Pessimistic)


Implications of Qualifications Recognition

  • Attracts the best

  • Bridges the productivity gap

  • Increases flexibility

  • Reduces business uncertainty


Implications of Qualifications Recognition

  • Reduces the ‘brain drain’?

  • Reduces income inequality?

  • Reduces conflict?


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