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February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia

February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia. A New Proposal for the Research Program to Promote Science and Technology for FY 2007-09 Strategic Promotion of Collaborations in Science and Technology in Asia International Research Project for Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological Disasters.

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February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia

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  1. February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia

  2. A New Proposal for the Research Program to Promote Science and Technology for FY 2007-09 Strategic Promotion of Collaborations in Science and Technology in Asia International Research Project for Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological Disasters PI: Shigeo YODEN Kyoto University in collaboration with MRI/JMA and ITB/Indonesia

  3. 平成19年度科学技術振興調整費 新規提案課題 アジア科学技術協力の戦略的推進 1 - 1　自然災害への対応に資する防災科学技術分野の研究開発 東南アジア地域の 気象災害軽減国際共同研究 研究代表者：　余田 成男 代表機関：　京都大学 国内参画機関：　気象庁 気象研究所 国外参画機関：インドネシアバンドン工科大学

  4. Experimental downscale NWPs in SE Asia 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　↓ • Research and development of “Decision support system for prevention and mitigationof meteorological disasters” • Establishment of “International Scientist-Network for Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological disasters in SE Asia” Purpose

  5. Major Research Subjects Experimental downscale NWPs in the tropics with meso-scale models Assessments of the impact of new observational data on NWPs with advanced data assimilation schemes Development of a unified data base and “Decision support system for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters” (+) International collaborations through workshops and short/long visits

  6. (Slingo, 2006) 気象庁 GSM 1.5km-NHM MSM (a) Experimental downscale NWPs in the tropics with meso-scale models

  7. Dr. Tri W. Hadi and his PC cluster (ITB) WEB page of Climate Prediction Laboratory (WCPL) http://weather.geoph.itb.ac.id/ Recent attempt by Pak Tri at ITB

  8. Kyoto Univ.EAR at Koto Tabang, West Sumatra, Indonesia (b) Assessments of the impact of new observational data on NWPs with advanced data assimilation schemes advanced data assimilation With 4D-VAR or EnKF GPS-LEO occultation techniques for T and water vapor

  9. (c) Development of a unified data base Distributed Data Management System Unified Data Exchange System THORPEX ファイル形式の隠蔽 etc 研究者 ユーザー利用

  10. “Decision support system for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters” WMO(2005) THORPEX: A World Weather Research Program

  11. (+) International collaborations through workshops and short/long visits International Workshop on Regional Models for the Prediction of Tropical Weather and Climate March 1~3, 2006 at Sheraton Bandung Hotel & Tower, Indonesia sponsored by KAGI21

  12. Research Groups • (1) Fundamental Research and System Development • Kyoto University • メソモデルを用いた熱帯域気象のダウンスケール予報実験 • 最新データ同化システムの試験開発と機動的観測データのインパクト実験 • 観測・予報データ統合データベース・気象災害対策判断支援システム試作 • 国際研究集会の開催と国際的技術協力 流動型 ポスドク研究員 モデル共同開発 データ共同利用 若手研究者長期 短期滞在型研究　 機動的共同観測 モデル共同開発 International Scientist-Network for Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological disasters in SWAsia 国際ワークショップ・研修スクールの開催等 • (2)Operational Model Development • MRI/JMA • 気象庁モデルの精緻化と検証実験 • メソモデル国際共同研究への環境整備 • メソモデル熱帯域データ同化実験 • (3)Near-Real Time Experiment • ITB, NTU, and some others • 東南アジア域ダウンスケール予報の 　　準リアルタイム実用化実験 • バンドン工科大学内外における国際 　　共同研究推進組織の立上げ 国際的技術協力

  13. International relationship of colleagues in Kyoto University in SE and S Asia Bangladesh：B.I.T.・Mohammad Nazrul Islam　Hayashi, Satomura Cambodia：　 Satomura India：NCMRWF・V.S. Prasad　Hayashi, Tsuda Indonesia：ITB・Emmy Suparka, Tri W. Hadi, ・・・ BMG・Mezak A. Ratag　Tsuda, Shiotani, Yoden Laos：DMH・Palikone Thalongsengchanh　Yoden, Satomura Malaysia：MNU・Fredolin T. Tangang DM・Mohan K. Sammathuria　Satomura, Tsuda Nepal：Satomura, Hayashi, Ishikawa Phillipine：PNU・Josefina C. Argete Manila Obs.・Mariano Estoque　Satomura Saudi Arabia：Ishikawa Singapore：NTU・Tieh Yong Koh, Lan Yi, ・・・　Yoden Thai：　TMD・Somchai Baimoung, Kam Promasakha　Satomura Vitenam：Hanoi Univ.・Kieu Thi Xin, Duc Le　Shiotani, Satomura

  14. Backgrounds and Prospects • Histories • Kyoto University has unique tradition in field survey in SE Asia and Africa (natural science and liberal arts) • JMA is one of the most advanced forecast centers with a brilliant history of NWPs in the 20 century • MOU on collaborations in research and education between Kyoto Univ. and ITB in 2006

  15. The Earth Simulator R&D Center ENIAC http://ei.cs.vt.edu/~history/ ENIAC.Richey.HTML http://www.es.jamstec.go.jp/esc/jp/index.html These years are exciting period in NWPs and climate simulations! (2) Advances in computer technology • Exponential growth in the last half century • computational speed • memory size

  16. An example in climate change simulations • Climateprediction.net http://www.climateprediction.net/ 108,000 participants from 188 countries (as of February, 2007) • Stainforth et al. (2005) “Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases”. Nature, 433, 403-406

  17. (3) Recent activities • International workshop/meeting on meso-scale NWPs １）　KAGI21 “International Workshop on Regional Models for the Prediction of Tropical Weather and Climate” （March 2006, Bandung, Indonesia) about 30 participants from 9 countries of ASEAN/Japan ２）　3rd AOGS annual meeting “Applied Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction in SE Asia” （July 2006, Singapore) 30～40 participants

  18. (4) Societal needs/merits • Potential increase of the risk of high-impact weather associated with global warming and/or economical development • Usefulness of new knowledge on tropical meteorology with application to NWSs of hot and humid weather (Typhoon, BAIU front, ・・・) • Better international relationship through collaborations with highly-talented young scientists in SE Asia on the research of advanced NWPs

  19. (5) Economical values • Design of optimum observation system for NWPs • Impact of high-resolution information on risk management (floods, stormy winds, etc.), water-resource management, ・・・ • Utilization of probability information obtained by ensemble NWPs in the fields of aviation, transportation, industry, agriculture, commerce, ・・ • Environmental issues with longer time scales: global warming, air pollution with long-range transport, ・・・

  20. Final Remarks

  21. WINDS (Wideband InterNetworking engineering test and Demonstration Satellite) • will be launched in 2007 • Test use to transfer global GPV data of medium-range ensemble forecasts 提供：JAXA

  22. A review paper on “Atmospheric Predictability” • Yoden (2007) • Special Issue of J. Met. Soc. Japan on 125 ｔｈanniversary of the foundation of MSJ • Contents: 1. A historical perspective 2. Theories on atmospheric predictability 3. Ensemble numerical weather predictions 4. THORPEX challenges 5. Concluding remarks

  23. Backup Slides

  24. 気象庁 次期予報 解析システム の提案 現予報 解析システム の改良点指摘 共同研究契約 の一括締結 実験的気象予測研究プラットフォーム 現業予報解析システム・現業データの提供 気象庁と大学・研究機関との統一インターフェイス 事例解析・ ハインドキャスト実験 次世代予報解析 システム実験 大　学・研究機関 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　フロンティア・ＥＳＣ・電力中研・他

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