LEARNING OBJECTIVES

1. LEARNING OBJECTIVES • At the end of this lesson you will be able to: • understand the purpose of food security monitoring activities; • understand the role of early warning systems; • appreciate how this differs from monitoring longer-term food security • trends; and • recognize how regular food security monitoring is related to baseline • assessments.

2. INTRODUCTION This lesson will examine the purpose and means to assess andmonitor changes in food security over time. It will look at two types of regular food security assessments: early warning and monitoring food security trends

3. TRACKING CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY A baseline assessment represents a ‘snap-shot’ of the food security situation at a specific point in time. It should also incorporate as much as possible historical trends in food insecurity, in order to design strategies and programmes.

4. TRACKING CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY Baselines may also identify: what hazards or shocks threaten their future food security what is the level of capacity to cope with these hazards who is vulnerable to becoming food insecure in the future.

5. TRACKING CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY Food insecurity can be highly dynamic. Decision makers must monitor changes in household food security status. • Information is needed to make decisions on: • initiating new interventions to protect or improve food security; or; • modifying, or exiting from, on-going interventions that need to be scaled up, scaled down, are no longer needed or have been ineffective.

6. TRACKING CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY Two main types of changes may alter levels of household food security: SHOCKS A shock (also called hazard or stress) can cause a very rapid deterioration in food security. TRENDS Trends are changes to food security that occur more gradually over time. They can have either a positive or a negative effect on livelihoods.

7. TRACKING CHANGES IN FOOD SECURITY Shocks and trends must be distinguished since they have different effects. It is important to know these effects in order to design appropriate responses. SHOCKS The rapid changes to food security that result from shocks may require an emergency food security intervention to protect lives and livelihoods. TRENDS Understanding trends can inform decisions on adapting, modifying or exiting from on-going food security interventions.

8. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS Different kinds of systems are designed to monitor changes in food security: ! EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS TREND MONITORING SYSTEMS

9. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS The objective of these systems is to prevent mass starvation, by regularly monitoring the food security situation. ! It is possible to give ample notice when external shocks or other factors put people at risk.

10. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS Effective early warning systems share a number of characteristics: 1. The coverage is typically broad. 2. An early warning system needs to adopt a ‘light’ methodology to produce timely reports with a broad coverage. 3. The monitoring and reporting must be regular and frequent to provide timely warning.

11. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS 1. The initial focus can be on monitoring the incidence of the shocks or hazards. 2. On the basis of the severity of a shock the early warning systems can predict the probable food security consequences. 3. This information can be used to trigger appropriate mitigation and response plans.

12. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS In case of limited resources, how do you decide which of these hazards and shocks should be monitored? • You can list the various hazards and then rate: • the frequency of the hazards occurring, • how many people are affected, and • the severity of the impacts.

13. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS To monitor variations in crop production, various early warning systems have been developed, at the global, regional and national levels. FAO has developed the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). International level They are set up by member states of regional community organizations. Regional level Most governments have institutionalized national crop monitoring systems. National level

14. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS To plan emergency interventions it is necessary to understand how the hazard may affect people’s future food insecurity. The outcome will be influenced by two main factors: 1 The degree of exposure to a shock 2 The capacity to cope

15. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS • Food security baseline assessments provide a picture of typical livelihoods (a picture of their assets and how they use them to generate income). • This provides: • the context for estimating the likely effect of ‘shocks’ on household food • consumption; • what coping strategies are available; • help to identify who is most at risk of being unable to cope with the • shock.

16. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS Rural people don’t depend solely on their on production, but employ a range of strategies to get the food and cash they need. “Second generation” early warning systems utilize a multi-indicator approach. It monitors trends in a wider range of production and income sources.

17. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS • The purpose of an early warning system is to monitor trends and identify if a problem is developing. • In this case the system helps to assess: • how quickly it is developing, and • define the geographical area affected. • The value of an early warning system lies in its ability to trigger an appropriate response.

18. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS To design an emergency large scale response, it is usually necessary to gather more detailed information through a ‘once-off’ needs assessment. What is the nature of food insecurity? What are the causes? What response is recommended?

19. TREND MONITORING Early warning systems are not designed to monitor longer term food security trends. TREND MONITORING SYSTEMS A separate trend monitoring system is needed to assess changes in food security over time. Trend monitoring directly assesses food security outcomes.

20. TREND MONITORING • A range of possible indicators can be used to monitor food security outcomes. • This includes: • measures of food consumption, • coping strategies, or • nutritional surveillance.

21. SUMMARY

22. IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE... • Online resources • Darcy, J. and Charles-Antoine Hofmann (2003) Humanitarian Needs Assessment and Decision-Making, HPG Briefing 13, September 2003. http://www.odi.org.uk/HPG/papers/hpgbrief13.pdf • Maunder, N and Wiggins, S. (2007) Food security in Southern Africa: • Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability. Natural Resource Perspectives 106, June 2007 Overseas Development Institute, London. http://www.odi.org.uk/nrp/nrp105.pdf • FAO GIEWS website http://www.fao.org/giews/english/index.htm • FEWS NET http://www.fews.net/ • WFP SENAC http://www.wfp.org/operations/Emergency_needs/index.asp?section=5&sub_section=6#senac

23. IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE... • Additional readings • Devereux, S. And Maxwell, S. (2001) Food security in sub-Saharan Africa ITDG • FAO (2006) Planning for the future: an assessment of food security early • warning systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Synthesis report. Rome. • Save the Children Fund (2007) HEA Practitioner Guide. SCF-UK.