OFFICE OF SCIENCE

1. OFFICE OFSCIENCE Energy Sources, Uses and Trends Teaching About Energy April 2011 Nicholas B. Woodward Geosciences Research Program Office of Basic Energy Sciences

2. What Kind of Energy? Transportation Light Heat Other …? Where? Why?

3. Energy Objectives? Energy Security: Issues – Domestic Coal; Significant hydrocarbon imports; Uranium? Answers – Hybrid Vehicles, Coal to Liquids, Oil/Tar Sands Environmental Quality: Pollution Control – Issues – Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act Answers – NG fired power plants, CAFÉ standards, Hybrid Vehicles, Zero Emissions Vehicles Climate Change – Issues – Greenhouse Gas Emissions/Decarbonation Answers – Non-Greenhouse gas emitting power, Zero Emission Vehicles Industrial Approach over 40 Years – Efficiency – pollution/emissions not created need not be cleaned up or have cost penalties.

4. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 1990-2035(quadrillion Btu) http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html 250 ~ 500 Quads total Projections History 200 Liquids 150 Coal Natural Gas 100 Renewables 50 Nuclear 0 2015 2000 1990 2007 2025 2035

5. World Oil Consumption 2009 Thousands of barrels a day • http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/world-oil-consumption-001.jpg Russia 2,695 Japan 4,396 US 18,686 China 8,625 Total World 84,077

6. Recoverable Resource Depends on Price Energy-Reserve Revisions, Dec 16th, 2008 , by John DonovanTHE WALL STREET JOURNAL  Falling Oil, Natural-Gas Prices Render Certain Proved Stockpiles as Uneconomic Many companies will likely be forced to declare that big chunks of their oil and gas reserves are uneconomic. That could have wide-ranging implications for oil companies, which need to show increasing reserves to attract investors and, in some cases, to serve as collateral on loans. Oil and gas producers must report annually the size of their proved reserves — that is, how much oil and gas they believe they can produce from the fields they control. Under securities rules, they can include only oil that can be produced economically — a calculation based on oil and gas prices at the end of their year, usually Dec. 31.

7. U.S. Energy Flow, 1950 (Quads) At midcentury, the U.S. used 1/3 of the primary energy used today and with greater overall efficiency ~50% Efficiency ~ 34 Quads of Energy 12” TV, no interstate system

8. Energy sources and consumption sectors in the U.S. 8

9. U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 About 1/3 of U.S. primary energy is imported Exports 5.4 Quads Domestic Production: 71.7 Quads Consumption: 101.6 Quads Energy Consumption Energy Supply (Quads) Imports: 34.6 Quads Adjustments ~1 ~ 100 Quads of Energy (Quads = Quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU)

10. Domestic 67% Supply 107 Quads Consume 102 Quads Fossil 85% Imports 33% Nuclear 8% Renewable 7% U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 (Quads) 85% of primary energy is from fossil fuels Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation 10

11. U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads) >70% of primary energy for the transportation sectorand >60% of primary energy for electricity generation/use is lost ~44% Efficiency 11 Source: LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to LLNL and DOE.

12. US Transportation Challenge • Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release Overview Release Date: December 16, 2010   |  Full Report Release Date: April 26, 2011   |   Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2011); http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/executive_summary.cfm • Crude Oil Production: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm Annual US Oil Production (Barrels per day) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010   5,102 5,064 4,950 5,361 5,512 Annual US Oil Imports all countries (Barrels per day)           13,707 13,468 12,915 11,691 11,753

13. CAFÉ Standards History We are making progress. Are we making progress fast enough? Are hybrid vehicles/electric vehicles the answer? Fleet turnover of about 10 years.

14. Energy Storage Challenge • Electrify transportation - plug-in hybrids and electric cars Batteries: 30-50x less energy density than gasoline 30 Energy Storage Density gasoline Impossible dream: x10 improvement ethanol 20 methanol hydrogen compounds (target) Energy/volume Beyond batteries: chemical storage + fuel cells = electricity combustion chemical + fuel cells = electricity 10 batteries compressed hydrogen gas super capacitors 0 ALSO: Storage needed to handle intermittent solar and wind electricity generation 0 10 20 30 40 Energy/weight electrical storage chemical storage electro-chemical storage breakthroughs needed x2-5 increase in battery energy density x10-20 increase through chemical storage + fuel cells http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/BESAC/Meetings.html#0209 Crabtree presentation

15. In the News NY Times – Lithium:February 3, 2009In Bolivia, Untapped Bounty Meets Nationalism By SIMON ROMERO UYUNI, BOLIVIA — In the rush to build the next generation of hybrid or electric cars, a sobering fact confronts both automakers and governments seeking to lower their reliance on foreign oil: almost half of the world’s lithium, the mineral needed to power the vehicles, is found here in Bolivia — a country that may not be willing to surrender it so easily. Japanese and European companies are busily trying to strike deals to tap the resource, but a nationalist sentiment about the lithium is building quickly in the government of President Evo Morales, an ardent critic of the United States who has already nationalized Bolivia’s oil and natural gas industries.

16. US Electricity ProfileEIA:http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p2.html Energy Source # of Generators Nameplate Capacity Coal 1,470 336,040 Petroleum 3,743 62,394 Natural Gas 5,439 449,389 Other Gases 105 2,663 Nuclear 104 105,764 Hydroelectric 3,992 77,644 Wind 389 16,596 Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic 38 503 Wood and Wood Derived Fuels 346 7,510 Geothermal 224 3,233 Other Biomass 1,299 4,834 Pumped Storage 151 20,355 Other 42 866 Total 17, 342 1,087,791 Baseload Power ~ ½ Capacity ~ 2/3 Coal – “always on” A new fossil fueled power plant costs from $1-2 Billion; Nuclear $10 B +

17. US Electricity Challenge - Can This Change?EIA:http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p2.html Energy Source # of Generators Nameplate Capacity Coal 1,470 336,040 Petroleum 3,743 62,394 Natural Gas 5,439 449,389 Other Gases 105 2,663 Nuclear 104 105,764 Hydroelectric 3,992 77,644 Wind 389 16,596 Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic 38 503 Wood and Wood Derived Fuels 346 7,510 Geothermal 224 3,233 Other Biomass 1,299 4,834 Pumped Storage 151 20,355 Other 42 866 Total 17, 342 1,087,791 Baseload Power ~ ½ Capacity ~ 2/3 Coal A new fossil fueled power plant costs from $1-2 Billion; Nuclear $10 B +

18. Trends in Energy Bulk Commodity Based Energy to Technology Based Energy Distributed Energy to Centralized Energy to Distributed Energy Fireplaces to 1000Mw Electric Power Plants to Solar Cells or Ground Source Heat Pumps on Homes Distributed Energy to Centralized Energy Horses to Cars to Mass Transit

19. Overall Efficiency of an Incandescent Bulb  2%Lighting accounts for  22% of all electricity usage in the U.S. Waste heat Waste heat No energy “loss” value assigned to getting the coal from the ground to the power plant (mining, transportation, etc) Example of energy lost during conversion and transmission. Imagine that the coal needed to illuminate an incandescent light bulb contains 100 units of energy when it enters the power plant. Only two units of energy eventually light the bulb. The remaining 98 units are lost along the way, primarily as heat.

20. Updating the Electricity System?Fleet turnover maybe over 50 years 57% of Generation Capacity is Greater than 30 Years Old Age of Duke Energy Generating Capacity (41,000 MW) Number of Generating Units in Portfolio (59)

21. Key Research and Development Areas Electric Energy Storage Electricity Distribution Fuel Switching End-use Efficiency Zero-net-emissions Electricity Generation Carbon Capture and Sequestration Conservation Fuel Switching Climate/Environment Impacts 21 Source: LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to LLNL and DOE.

22. Earth Resources and Alternate Energy? Elemental Needs for large scale Photovoltaic production in the U.S. Also of interest are Neodymium (for high performance permanent magnets in motors), Indium (transparent conducting oxide for flat panel displays, etc.), Gallium (used in a variety of solid state lighting devices), Gadolinium (potentially of use in high performance magnetic refrigeration), Cobalt (also used in some Li ion batteries), Samarium (used in SaCo permanent magnets with better temperature characteristics than NdFeB), etc.

23. How Will Earth Sciences Influence Energy? New Energy Minerals Water Resources for Electricity Generation Fuel Switching Carbon Capture and Sequestration Find New Resources, ex. Coal Bed Methane, Methane Hydrates Waste Disposal Computers Solar cells Fuel Rods Produced Water CO2 Fuel Switching Water for biofuels Climate/Environment Impacts 23 Source: LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to LLNL and DOE.

24. A lot of CO2 Sequestration Sites Will Be Required for Decarbonation of Fossil Fuel Power Plants Options for storing CO2 in underground geological formations for 330,000 MW of electric energy generation. After Benson and Cook (2005).

25. CCS - Carbon Capture and Sequestration Into the environment From the energy source • They exist only because of a regulatory requirement • They are not required for the normal functioning of an engine • They affect how an internal combustion engine now can operate • There have been several generations of improvements • They have created a new business opportunity where none existed

26. 40 0 -40 -80 efficient new buildings power generation/industry combined heat/power electronics and lighting efficient cars and trucks Cost ($ per ton CO2) other renewable energy carbon sequestration other incl. nuclear improve existing buildings agriculture, forestry, land use 40% of current US emissions! 1 2 3 US CO2 emission avoided (gigatons/year) Estimated Cost of Carbon Reductions Scalability ? http://mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/pdf/US_ghg_final_report.pdf

27. Conclusions: Energy Security Vs Climate Impact Power Sector (this size corresponds to 20 B kWh) Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 100,000 barrels of oil per day) For details on the assumptions underlying the options, go to www.wri.org/usenergyoption 27

28. Conclusions: Improving Energy Education • Create an Informed Public on the different roles to be played by: • Energy efficiency and conservation • “Green” energy technologies • Improvements of existing energy (fossil fuel, hydropower and nuclear) power systems • Greenhouse gas emission reductions • Traditional disciplinary system at University level (such as Geology) versus a more integrated, multidisciplinary approach (Energy Systems) • Provide training and inspiration for the next generation of scientists, engineers, policymakers, and citizens. CURE NIMBY

29. Conclusions: Key Science Education Questions What do we want our students to know ? Why do we want them to know it ? General Education vs Science Majors How do we provide context? Do we provide maximum information and hope some sticks? or Do we provide the bare bones and demand it all sticks? Undergraduate level objectives ? Graduate level objectives? Career level objectives?

30. Conclusion -Where to from here? Illumination of the Night Sky 2/3 of the U.S population has lost naked-eye visibility of the Milky Way The current energy grid has the brain of a worm multiple ganglion without central direction….and wastes more than half of its energy http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=1438l 30

31. Source Material Web resources: • http://www.science.doe.gov/SC-2/Deputy_Director-speeches-presentations.htm • http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/bes.html • http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/archives/summaries.html • http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/reports/list.html • http://www.fossil.energy.gov/ • http://www.eere.energy.gov/ • http://www.eia.doe.gov/ • http://www.energy.gov/sciencetech/carbonsequestration.htm • Other Reports; • Grand Challenges for Earth Resources Engineering “Engineering applied to the discovery, development and environmentally responsible production of subsurface earth resources.” NAS – BESR - November 2010 – (not yet available on the web) •  Grand Challenges for Engineering, National Academy of Engineering report 2008 • Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, National Petroleum Council report 2007 • Our Common Future, World Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford University • Press 1987