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Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger

Results of LMs surface parameters verification @ different Services - (21 of 136 slides) with contributions of. Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann, Guy de Morsier, André Walser, Emanuele Zala & Dominique Ruffieux Elena Oberto, Marco Turco & Paolo Bertolotto

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Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger

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  1. Results of LMs surface parameters verification @ different Services - (21 of 136 slides) with contributions of • Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger • Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann,Guy de Morsier, André Walser,Emanuele Zala & Dominique Ruffieux • Elena Oberto, Marco Turco &Paolo Bertolotto • Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska & Andrzej Mazur • Adriano Raspanti, Patrizio Emiliani & Alessandro Galliani COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  2. COSMO Strategy Longer-term perspectives (3-5 years): science 1. High-resolution, short-range EPS available optimally: each COSMO member contributes 2 ensemble members 2. Assimilation of ‘all’ available data sfc / profiles / radar / satellites… high resolution also slowly-changing information (soil moisture, vegetation state, etc) 3. LM performance is known and critically discussed example of ECMWF includes dissemination of results COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  3. Geopotential 17.12.2003 GME PseudoTemps 27.09.2003 New GME COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  4. Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  5. Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  6. Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 2 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  7. Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 10 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  8. Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H < 800 m COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  9. Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts DJF 2004/05 00 UTC H < 800 m COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  10. aLMo without TKE LM with TKE ANETZ LM aLMo COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  11. COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  12. VERIFICATION OF THE LAMI AT CNMCA, T2m • Strong negative bias in winter • Strong positive mae (low abs accuracy) • in summer around midday

  13. Positive bias for all the seasons (low mae in summer – weak circulation) • Diurnal cycle in spring and summer (overestimation during night – weak underestimation daytime) VERIFICATION OF THE LAMI AT CNMCA, Wind speed 10m

  14. COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  15. VERIFICATION OF THE LAMI AT CNMCA, mslp • Quasi-Linear increment of mae with the ranges • Negative bias for d+2 during summer

  16. COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  17. Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  18. LAMI prognostic rain scheme Observed LAMI “standard” Case study during a strong foehn event: 21-22 Jan’05 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  19. Subjective impressions by forecasters • faster movements of synoptic systems in the model compared to reality • Precipitation too high at the windward side of orographic obstacles • sometimes unrealistic overestimation of precipitation at single gridpoints or group of gridpoints COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  20. What do we need? • Ideas about the reasons for systematic model errors (interaction WG3 and WG 5) • Experimental runs with assimilation cycles for different physical and mathematical approaches concerning systematic model errors • Conditional verification could be a useful step in this connection (melting snow???) COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

  21. That‘s all,thank you for your attention! COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 - Verification of surface weather elements @ different Services

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