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Technology Forecasting. Question 1: what happens to object A in time T if free to evolve ?. Technology Forecasting. Question 2: what happens if we change object C ?. Technology Forecasting. Forecasting of Technology.

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Technology forecasting2

Question 2: what happens if we change object C ? evolve ?

Technology Forecasting


Forecasting of technology
Forecasting of Technology evolve ?

  • Technology  “Applying a systematic technique, method or approach to solve a problem”1

  • Forecasting of Technology  . . .

    • Forecasting of Applying,

    • Forecasting of Systems,

    • Forecasting of Techniques/Methods,

    • Forecasting of Solve,

    • Forecasting of Problems.

  • Note 1

  • The application of science, especially to industrial or commercial objectives.

  • The scientific method and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective.


Forecasting of technology1

Technological System evolve ?

Engine

Control

Transmission

Working Means

Forecasting of Technology

Product

Primary

Function


Forecasting of technology2

Technological System evolve ?

Engine

Control

Transmission

Working Means

Forecasting of Technology

Product

Primary

Function


Es forecasting of machine tooling

Grinder evolve ?

turn

Motor

Transmission

Control Unit

Tool

Es.:Forecasting of “Machine Tooling”

Work Piece

machine


Es forecasting of photographic camera

Camera evolve ?

Motor

Microprocessor

Lens Set

Es.:Forecasting of “Photographic Camera”

light

record

Focus adjust


Es forecasting of semantic tool

ProSAO II evolve ?

Semantic TOOLS

words

ProSAO II

Parser

tag

Database

Database

Task Scheduler

Markov Hidden

Model

GUI

Tagger

Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Tool”

Technology

Nesting

concepts

show


Es forecasting of semantic engine

ProSAO II evolve ?

Parser

Markov Hidden

Model

Tagger

Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Engine”

words

tag

Database


Es forecasting of

<?> evolve ?

<?>

<?>

<?>

Es.:Forecasting of “<?>”

<?>

<?>

<?>


Methods for technology forecasting
Methods evolve ? for Technology Forecasting


Methods for forecast of technology
Methods evolve ? for Forecast of Technology

  • Forecasting of Technology

  • Technology  “Applying a systematic technique, method or approach to solve a problem”1

  • Forecasting of Technology  . . .

    • Forecasting of Applying,

    • Forecasting of Systems,

    • Forecasting of Techniques/Methods,

    • Forecasting of Solve,

    • Forecasting of Problems.


Methods for forecast of technology1
Methods evolve ? for Forecast of Technology

  • "TIPS" is the acronym for "Theory of Inventive Problem Solving"

  • "TRIZ" is the acronym for the same phrase in Russian

  • TRIZ was developed by Genrich Altshuller and his colleagues in the former USSR starting in 1946, and is now being developed and practiced throughout the world.

  • The research has proceeded in several stages over the last 50 years.

  • Over 2 million patents have been examined, classified by level of inventiveness, and analyzed to look for principles of innovation.


Methods for forecast of technology2
Methods evolve ? for Forecast of Technology

TRIZ Basics Achievements:

  • Problems and solutions were repeated across industries and sciences

  • Patterns of technical evolution were repeated across industries and sciences

  • Innovations used scientific effects outside the field where they were developed


Triz forecasting
TRIZ evolve ?forecasting

consists these major phases:

  • Analysis of the system's evolution: study of the history of the system and its position on its "life curve" (S-curve)

  • "Road mapping“: application of the Laws and Lines of Technological Systems Evolution to forecast functional and structural alterations in the system

  • Problem formulation: formulation of engineering problems to be solved so as to achieve targets set at theprevious phase

  • Problem solving: solving the formulated problems by using powerful analytical and solution tools of TRIZ


Analogy
Analogy evolve ?


Extrapolation
Extrapolation evolve ?


Statistics
Statistics evolve ?



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