Technology forecasting
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Technology Forecasting. Question 1: what happens to object A in time T if free to evolve ?. Technology Forecasting. Question 2: what happens if we change object C ?. Technology Forecasting. Forecasting of Technology.

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Technology Forecasting

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Technology forecasting

Technology Forecasting


Technology forecasting1

Question 1: what happens to object A in time T if free to evolve ?

Technology Forecasting


Technology forecasting2

Question 2: what happens if we change object C ?

Technology Forecasting


Forecasting of technology

Forecasting of Technology

  • Technology  “Applying a systematic technique, method or approach to solve a problem”1

  • Forecasting of Technology  . . .

    • Forecasting of Applying,

    • Forecasting of Systems,

    • Forecasting of Techniques/Methods,

    • Forecasting of Solve,

    • Forecasting of Problems.

  • Note 1

  • The application of science, especially to industrial or commercial objectives.

  • The scientific method and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective.


Forecasting of technology1

Technological System

Engine

Control

Transmission

Working Means

Forecasting of Technology

Product

Primary

Function


Forecasting of technology2

Technological System

Engine

Control

Transmission

Working Means

Forecasting of Technology

Product

Primary

Function


Es forecasting of machine tooling

Grinder

turn

Motor

Transmission

Control Unit

Tool

Es.:Forecasting of “Machine Tooling”

Work Piece

machine


Es forecasting of photographic camera

Camera

Motor

Microprocessor

Lens Set

Es.:Forecasting of “Photographic Camera”

light

record

Focus adjust


Es forecasting of semantic tool

ProSAO II

Semantic TOOLS

words

ProSAO II

Parser

tag

Database

Database

Task Scheduler

Markov Hidden

Model

GUI

Tagger

Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Tool”

Technology

Nesting

concepts

show


Es forecasting of semantic engine

ProSAO II

Parser

Markov Hidden

Model

Tagger

Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Engine”

words

tag

Database


Es forecasting of

<?>

<?>

<?>

<?>

Es.:Forecasting of “<?>”

<?>

<?>

<?>


Methods for technology forecasting

Methods for Technology Forecasting


Methods for forecast of technology

Methods for Forecast of Technology

  • Forecasting of Technology

  • Technology  “Applying a systematic technique, method or approach to solve a problem”1

  • Forecasting of Technology  . . .

    • Forecasting of Applying,

    • Forecasting of Systems,

    • Forecasting of Techniques/Methods,

    • Forecasting of Solve,

    • Forecasting of Problems.


Methods for forecast of technology1

Methods for Forecast of Technology

  • "TIPS" is the acronym for "Theory of Inventive Problem Solving"

  • "TRIZ" is the acronym for the same phrase in Russian

  • TRIZ was developed by Genrich Altshuller and his colleagues in the former USSR starting in 1946, and is now being developed and practiced throughout the world.

  • The research has proceeded in several stages over the last 50 years.

  • Over 2 million patents have been examined, classified by level of inventiveness, and analyzed to look for principles of innovation.


Methods for forecast of technology2

Methods for Forecast of Technology

TRIZ Basics Achievements:

  • Problems and solutions were repeated across industries and sciences

  • Patterns of technical evolution were repeated across industries and sciences

  • Innovations used scientific effects outside the field where they were developed


Triz forecasting

TRIZforecasting

consists these major phases:

  • Analysis of the system's evolution: study of the history of the system and its position on its "life curve" (S-curve)

  • "Road mapping“: application of the Laws and Lines of Technological Systems Evolution to forecast functional and structural alterations in the system

  • Problem formulation: formulation of engineering problems to be solved so as to achieve targets set at theprevious phase

  • Problem solving: solving the formulated problems by using powerful analytical and solution tools of TRIZ


Analogy

Analogy


Extrapolation

Extrapolation


Statistics

Statistics


Causal relations

Causal Relations


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