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Can the effective CO 2 reduction in the atmosphere in response to fossil fuel emission reduction and enhanced carbon sequestration on land be detected in the context of the Kyoto commitments of Europe?. Main objectives.

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Main objectives

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Main objectives

Can the effective CO2 reduction in the atmosphere in response to fossil fuel emission reduction and enhanced carbon sequestration on land be detected in the context of the Kyoto commitments of Europe?


Main objectives

Main objectives

  • To provide an observation system of atmospheric measurements and a modelling framework to detect changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the time frame of a Kyoto commitment period. (connection with uncertainties)

  • To develop the outline of a carbon accounting system for the second Commitment period based on measuring carbon fluxes, stock changes by soil and biomass inventories, vegetation properties by remote sensing, and atmospheric concentrations (discuss avoiding deforestation, carbon management).

  • To assess vulnerability of carbon pools and interactions with other trace gases (N2O, CH4)


Main objectives

Recent acceleration in

global fossil fuel emissions

• 1980’s = 5.3 GtC y-1

• 1990’s = 6.3 GtC y-1

• Since 2000 = 7.2 GtCy-1 (8.7 GtCy-1 including deforestation)

• Increase in emissions from 6.7 in 2000 to 7.9

in 2005

• (+28% compared to +3.2% during the 1990’s)

• Reversal in the carbon intensity of GDP

since 2000


Main objectives

Prof. Riccardo Valentini E-mail: [email protected]


Global c budget slow in fast out

Fast process (1 – 102 days)

Slow process (103 – 104 days)

Global C Budget: “Slow in – Fast out”

Atmospheric accumulation rate

3.2 GtC per year 1990s

Atmosphere

Surface biosphere

6.3

F Fuel,

Cement

2.2

Land-Use

Change

2.9

Land Uptake

2.4

Ocean

Uptake

Gruber et al 2003 , SCOPE project


Main objectives

The “Gap Paradigm”

BIOSPHERE

Source or sink?


Fast track approach

Fast Track Approach

  • Develop of a synthesis report on major findings which have implications for UNFCCC/Kyoto/Climate Policy


Main objectives

0. Are we able to attribute the current changes of atmospheric concentration to

Fossil fuel versus biospheric fluxes ?


Main objectives

  • What are the controlling driving forces of biospheric fluxes ?

  • Photosynthesis is temperature driven in northern European ecosystems and water limited in southern European ecosystems

However terrestrial carbon uptake is weakly coupled with mean climate


Main objectives

Extreme climate events or disturbances have a strong effect on biosphere-astmosphere exchanges

Change in hydrologic regimes in mediterranean ecosystems


Main objectives

Extreme climate events or disturbances have a strong effect on biosphere-astmosphere exchanges

Annual mean 1850-2000: 35 M m3 of forest wood damaged by natural disturbances in Europe.

53% wind throw

16% fire

16% biotic (insects)

3% snow

5% other abiotic

Tatra Experiment CarboEurope


Main objectives

Forest carbon sink account for 50% of NEP of the forest and 25% of the maximum observed NEP


Main objectives

Forest management dominate forest carbon uptake

Elevated nitrogen deposition is unlikely to enhance vegetation carbon sink significantly because of climatic limitations (Galina Churkina)


Main objectives

European Grasslands are taking up more carbon than previous estimate

Also including other GHG effects


Main objectives

+ Meteorological controls

++ Land-use history

+ Meteorological controls

++ Management (harvest, tillage)

Climaxic ecosystem

grassland

agriculture

recovering grassland

time

C sequestration potential of abandoned croplands of Russian Federation is significant

Implications with art. 3.4 of Kyoto Protocol

Photo:G.Petrusov, 1935- harvest


Main objectives

SCENARIO C Russian Federation

Carbon sequestration potential (1990-2012): 158.41 Mt C= 580.85 MtCO2


Main objectives

New ideas to include in the Kyoto report ?


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