Grains Outlook for 2011
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Grains Outlook for 2011. Insuring Iowa’s Agriculture Ames, Iowa Nov. 9, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. Source: USDA-NASS. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range.

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Grains outlook for 2011

Grains Outlook for 2011

Insuring Iowa’s Agriculture

Ames, Iowa

Nov. 9, 2010

Chad Hart

Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

[email protected]

515-294-9911


Grains outlook for 2011

U.S. Corn Supply and Use

Source: USDA


Grains outlook for 2011

Source: USDA-NASS


Grains outlook for 2011

Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range

Translates to a yield around 160 bu.

Source: USDA-NASS


Grains outlook for 2011

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use

Source: USDA


Grains outlook for 2011

Source: USDA-NASS


Grains outlook for 2011

Within a bushel of each other

Source: USDA-NASS


Grains outlook for 2011

World Corn Production

Source: USDA


Grains outlook for 2011

World Soybean Production

Source: USDA


Grains outlook for 2011

La Niña Winter

Source: NOAA


Grains outlook for 2011

Clearing Old Stocks

The current stocks set-up is reminiscent of the transition between the 2006 and 2007 crops.

Source: USDA


Hog crush margin

Hog Crush Margin

The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.

Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures

Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension


Cattle crush margin

Cattle Crush Margin

The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.

Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds

Corn: 50 bushels per head

Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension


Historical export levels

Historical Export Levels

Week 9 of marketing year

Source: USDA, FAS


Corn export shifts

Corn Export Shifts

Source: USDA, FAS


Soy export shifts

Soy Export Shifts

Source: USDA, FAS


Grains outlook for 2011

Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)


Ethanol blending advantage

Ethanol Blending Advantage


Iowa corn prices vs costs

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Right now, futures are in $5.40 range for 2010 and 2011 corn

Even with higher fertilizer costs, corn’s profitable


Iowa soybean prices vs costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Futures are nearly $12 for 2010 and 2011 beans


This year

This Year

Soy $12.10

Corn $5.43


Thoughts for 2011 and beyond

Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond

  • General economic conditions

    • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices

    • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range

  • Supply/demand concerns

    • Stocks: 2009 vs. 2010 crop

    • South America: La Niña impacts

    • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed?

    • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?

  • 2010/11:USDA:Corn $5.20, Soy $11.45

    Futures (as of 11/8/2010):Corn $5.46, Soy $11.80

  • 2011/12:

    Futures (as of 11/8/2010):Corn $5.34, Soy $11.71


Grains outlook for 2011

Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/


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