Advancing participatory scenario development linking storylines and models with cognitive maps

1. Advancing participatory scenario developmentlinking storylines and models with cognitive maps Mail has been sent out for your feedback! Mail has been sent out for your feedback!

2. Storyline and Stimulation approach First qualitative storylines -> Quantification of driving forces -> Leads to quantitative models. Link between qualitative storylines and quantitative models remains difficult.First qualitative storylines -> Quantification of driving forces -> Leads to quantitative models. Link between qualitative storylines and quantitative models remains difficult.

3. Why is a gap a problem? Input policy makers and other stakeholders mainly in storylines Expert input mainly in models Link storylines and models has a gap Model results do not match storylines -> lowers trust of stakeholders in models -> lowers scientific status of results -> losing possibility of 'negotiated science'

4. Goals of new framework Creating a better link between participatory outcomes and models: Linking models and storylines Linking stakeholders and modellers (learning cycle between SHs and modellers) Better structured participatory outcomes Linking different groups of stakeholders (learning cycle within SHs)

5. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps; Goals Gain insight in the system Gain insight in the perspectives of the stakeholders Stimulate mutual understanding Stimulate communication between stakeholders and modellers New is that Stakeholders will create them from scratch, in a group 1. Gain insight in the system. By incorporating multiple feedbacks that are difficult to reason through, new insights on the behaviour of the system can be acquired. (System) 2. Gain insight in the perspectives of the stakeholders. By using a semi-quantitative tool, perspectives are made explicit. (Perspectives) 3. Stimulate mutual understanding. By using FCM in a participatory setting, it can be used a tool to deliberate and negotiate. (Process)New is that Stakeholders will create them from scratch, in a group 1. Gain insight in the system. By incorporating multiple feedbacks that are difficult to reason through, new insights on the behaviour of the system can be acquired. (System) 2. Gain insight in the perspectives of the stakeholders. By using a semi-quantitative tool, perspectives are made explicit. (Perspectives) 3. Stimulate mutual understanding. By using FCM in a participatory setting, it can be used a tool to deliberate and negotiate. (Process)

6. Discussion FCM give a middle picture between qualitative storylines and quantitative models Some drawbacks of using FCM, both technical and process based: Time ill-defined Creativity versus structure Consensus versus diversity The iteration between models and storylines needs enough attention from both sides

7. Expertise in participatory processes in watermanagement

8. What is expertise ? knowledge ? expertise includes the skills needed to use knowledge in a specific context substantive expertise ability to translate to experts in different domains ability to translate to non-experts ability to discriminate between knowledge claims judged from the socio-political context political expertise: deals with power relations procedural expertise: deals with project planning and facilitation of meetings

9. Context

10. The dilemmas of expertise �Expertise has never before been so indispensable, while being simultaneously so hotly contested.� (Nowotny 2003) The question of whose expertise is to be recognised, translated and incorporated into action is a political one.

12. LA River

13. River Cultures-Ecological Futures "River Cultures-Ecological Futures" is a collaborative initiative of UNESCO's Division of Ecological and Earth Sciences and Man and Biosphere Program in Paris with the University of North Texas Philosophy of Water Project. In the initiative river basins are priority areas for focused interdisciplinary research and policy. Goal is to develop a cultural component in (transnational) ecosystem based water management based on (new or existing) cultural practices and to integrate this component in water policy practices, in the educational curricula of engineering and water management institutions, and in communities.

14. Man and Biosphere Program Biosphere reserves: reconciling the conservation of biodiversity with economic development Biosphere reserves are sites recognized under UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere Program which innovate and demonstrate approaches to conservation and sustainable development. Living laboratories for people/culture and nature

15. RiverSpheres Facilitating involvement, engagement, motivation, imagination, sense of belonging Integrating environmental flows and cultural flows Rivers influence life styles-life styles influence rivers Vision: an inspiring image of a desired future Re-imagine the river/ Environmental Media

16. Diversity of Culture is like Complexity of water issues: embedded in different levels (global, regional, country, small scale watershed). Water issues are always associated with resource dynamics of watershed (land use changes, soil erosion, land degradation, infrastructure development, etc) which are affected by cultural beliefs and practices. When culture is not taken into consideration in sustainable resource management and policy making there is a lack of trust and compliance of local communities. The efforts and initiatives for solving water availability crisis should link local interests with environmental protection, link upstream with downstream, link country development priorities with regional concerns, link micro situation to macro picture of watershed management and its governance. Diversity of livelihoods in Tropical Uplands

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18. Calamity polders: the beginning 1990s: search for areas for �controlled flooding� during periods of extreme discharges 2000-2005: calamity polder debate. Concept of �residual risk�: state-provided structural measures are not a 100% guarantee Early 2000: presentation of the concept of �calamity polders� and a map of �searching areas�

19. Calamity polders: reactions Gelderland Province: surprise, protests (farmers� organizations, administrators, the private sector) Counter-research commisioned by Gelderland (among others with Germany) 2001: appointment of �Luteijn Commission�: inquiry into relevance of and need for calamity polders (�nut en noodzaak�) Responsible Departments: Transport and Water Management, and Home Affairs

20. Calamity polders: some arguments Contestation of assumptions about discharges and effects of use of calamity polders Questioning their functionality (�catching� a wave) Stressing the transnational dimension (the factor of current conditions and future policy in Germany) Costs and benefits (tracing a report on the basis of the Government Information Act; WOB) Questioning the structural / non-structural distinction State focus: the state as only legitimate definer of property rights; This hides the important issue of power and property; E.g. Demsetz 1967; North 1981; See Geisler (2006)! Public � private: Ruptures and continuties Political questions: how perivate individuals may influence political decisions that affect the public. Compare socialist regimes ? privatization frenzy Post socialist transformations Decentralization, devolution of authority and CBNRM Ethnicity and collective property versus territory (e.g. Van Meijl 2006). State focus: the state as only legitimate definer of property rights; This hides the important issue of power and property; E.g. Demsetz 1967; North 1981; See Geisler (2006)! Public � private: Ruptures and continuties Political questions: how perivate individuals may influence political decisions that affect the public. Compare socialist regimes ? privatization frenzy Post socialist transformations Decentralization, devolution of authority and CBNRM Ethnicity and collective property versus territory (e.g. Van Meijl 2006).

21. Communication with �stakeholders� No substantial role for inhabitants and other actors (e.g. in �sounding board� meetings) Avoidance of the technical debates (especially the uncertainties) Repetition of the arguments that legitimize the plans (�airbag� etc.) Marginalization of critical voices (and reports) Labeling local protests as �NIMBY� State focus: the state as only legitimate definer of property rights; This hides the important issue of power and property; E.g. Demsetz 1967; North 1981; See Geisler (2006)! Public � private: Ruptures and continuties Political questions: how perivate individuals may influence political decisions that affect the public. Compare socialist regimes ? privatization frenzy Post socialist transformations Decentralization, devolution of authority and CBNRM Ethnicity and collective property versus territory (e.g. Van Meijl 2006). State focus: the state as only legitimate definer of property rights; This hides the important issue of power and property; E.g. Demsetz 1967; North 1981; See Geisler (2006)! Public � private: Ruptures and continuties Political questions: how perivate individuals may influence political decisions that affect the public. Compare socialist regimes ? privatization frenzy Post socialist transformations Decentralization, devolution of authority and CBNRM Ethnicity and collective property versus territory (e.g. Van Meijl 2006).

22. Calamity polders: the end August 2002: the new Vice-Minister opts for �decisiveness� (rather than �finding societal support� or �parking�) But: increasing professional, societal and political criticism 2004 resolution Boelhouwer-Van Lith: no calamity polders; funds added to the Room for the River budget. 2005: demise (or shelving?) of the calamity polder plans, except for Beersche Overlaat. State focus: the state as only legitimate definer of property rights; This hides the important issue of power and property; E.g. Demsetz 1967; North 1981; See Geisler (2006)! Public � private: Ruptures and continuties Political questions: how perivate individuals may influence political decisions that affect the public. Compare socialist regimes ? privatization frenzy Post socialist transformations Decentralization, devolution of authority and CBNRM Ethnicity and collective property versus territory (e.g. Van Meijl 2006). State focus: the state as only legitimate definer of property rights; This hides the important issue of power and property; E.g. Demsetz 1967; North 1981; See Geisler (2006)! Public � private: Ruptures and continuties Political questions: how perivate individuals may influence political decisions that affect the public. Compare socialist regimes ? privatization frenzy Post socialist transformations Decentralization, devolution of authority and CBNRM Ethnicity and collective property versus territory (e.g. Van Meijl 2006).

23. The New Delta Commission�. Can we see parallels with the Luteijn commission? Create a sense of urgency, make a lot of noise! Leave it to �the experts�! Present knowledge as �certain� and uncontested (or: marginalize those who dare to doubt your knowledge). Save the country, avoid further debates!