outline
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Outline

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 19

Outline - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 116 Views
  • Uploaded on

Outline. Terminology Typical Expert System Typical Decision Support System Techniques Taken From Management Science and Artificial Intelligence Overall Project Project Evolution -- Synthesis of Techniques System Diagram Ultimate Goal for System Outputs. Outline (continued).

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Outline' - rossa


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
outline
Outline
  • Terminology
    • Typical Expert System
    • Typical Decision Support System
    • Techniques Taken From Management Science and Artificial Intelligence
  • Overall Project
    • Project Evolution -- Synthesis of Techniques
    • System Diagram
    • Ultimate Goal for System Outputs
outline continued
Outline (continued)
  • Plan for First Prototype of Automated System
    • Immediate Objective for Prototype Automated System
    • System Flow Diagram
    • A Possible Starting Point
      • Basis for Storage Injection/Withdrawal Model Computation
      • Monthly Plan for Supply Selection
      • Rules for Monthly Injection Computation
      • Rules for Monthly Supply Selection
      • Rules for Monthly Withdrawal Computation
    • Discussion Agenda -- Input from Team of Experts
  • Next Steps
typical expert system
Typical Expert System
  • Accumulates knowledge, including tricks
  • Codifies expert knowledge, often in the form of rules
  • Makes the expertise available, even when the expert is not, by emulating the decision-making ability of the human expert
  • Performs (at best) as well as the human expert that it emulates, but cannot go beyond the knowledge that was gathered
typical decision support system
Typical Decision Support System
  • Assists managers in their decision processes about semi-structured tasks
  • Supports managerial judgment by providing a smorgasbord of analytical tools and models
  • Seeks to improve the effectiveness of decision-making and to generate better solutions than are currently in use
  • Helps managers respond to novel or unanticipated situations
techniques taken from management science and artificial intelligence
Techniques Taken from Management Science and Artificial Intelligence
  • Linear Programming (LP)
  • Heuristic Search
  • Pattern Recognition
  • Machine Learning
as our project evolves we find that it needs a synthesis of techniques
As our project evolves, we find that it needs a synthesis of techniques
  • Gathers knowledge from multiple experts
  • Uses rules to simulate the decisions made in managing gas sources for the pipeline
  • Tries more possible solutions than are possible to evaluate by hand
    • Not an exhaustive search
    • Guided by heuristics from human experts
  • Uses machine learning techniques to try to improve the rules
knowledge based application development project
Knowledge-Based Application Development Project

UNCONTROLLED EVENTS

SystemFailures

IndustrialDemand

Weather

- Supply- Pipeline- Burnertip- Interconnect

GAS SOURCES

OBJECTIVE

Storage

Well & Pipeline Supply

Transportation Imbalance

Demand Curtailment

High Reliability of Service

Lower Gas Cost

Contracts - Take-or-Pay - Recoup - Tests for Deliverability

Regulations - Ratable

Physical System Capacity - Maximum Limits (e.g., MAOP, Well Deliverability, Injection, Withdrawal) - Minimum Required - Transients

CONSTRAINTS

ultimate goal for system outputs
Ultimate Goal for System Outputs
  • Create monthly plans for selection of gas supply that will minimize WACOG, while maintaining a high reliability of service and meeting contractual and regulatory requirements
    • Consider the yearly cycle when developing the monthly plans
  • Support replanning on a real-time basis in response to changing circumstances during the month
immediate objective for prototype automated system
Immediate Objective for Prototype Automated System
  • Create monthly* plans for selection of gas supply that will result in a lower WACOG* Generate plans for winter heatingseason only
  • Use rules that assure meeting contractual and regulatory requirements
  • Present information that allows managers to appraise the level of risk associated with each plan
first prototype of automated system system flow diagram
First Prototype of Automated System -System Flow Diagram

WACOGModel

Multiple

Budgeted Demand

Monthly Plans

Scenarios

Rule-BasedExpertSystem

WACOG/RiskProfile

Weather-Driven

WeatherProfiles

Demand

basis for storage injection withdrawal model computation a starting point
Basis for Storage Injection/Withdrawal Model Computation - A Starting Point
  • Weather profile for each calendar month
  • Need to add electric generation usage later
  • Sample table from academic paper
    • Shows only December
    • Based only on estimates, not analysis
    • Consider this a starting point
basis for storage injection withdrawal model computation a starting point1
Basis for Storage Injection/Withdrawal Model Computation - A Starting Point

* Sample Taken From Academic Paper

agenda
Agenda
  • Consider the architecture of the proposed model
    • Granularity of models
  • Discuss temperature thresholds
  • Discuss translations of weather profiles to Bcf of gas
    • Incremental demand by residential and commercial customers
    • Storage injection and withdrawal
next steps
Next Steps
  • Further analysis of weather data
  • Research historical transportation imbalances and use of storages
  • Implement a very simple version of this system in CLIPS
  • Compare the Possible Starting Point method to the current Operating Guidelines
decision support model for gas expert system project
Decision Support Model for Gas Expert System Project

Deliverability Max. & Contractual Min.

Actual GasSupply

PredictedResponse ofSystem

PreliminaryCalculation

Model

Actual Weather

ManualComparisonto Actual

Rules&Contestants

Validation

slide17

Decision Support Model for Gas Expert System Project

PredictedResponse ofSystem

Deliverability Max. & Contractual Min.

Gas SupplyForecast

EvaluationFunctionor “Critic”

PreliminaryCalculation

Model

Weather

Scenarios

WeatherHistory

Risk Factors &Distribution ofProbable WACOG

GenerateScenarios(Monte CarloMethod)

Rules&Contestants

Current Implementation

slide18

Decision Support Model for Gas Expert System Project

PredictedResponse ofSystem

Deliverability Max. & Contractual Min.

Gas SupplyForecast

EvaluationFunctionor “Critic”

PreliminaryCalculation

Model

Weather

Rules &Contestants

Scenarios

WACOG& RiskFactors

WeatherHistory

GenerateScenarios

ModifyRules

Partially Automate the Search for BetterRules by Using A.I. Techniques

gasxpert system design overview
GasXpert System Design Overview

Genetic Programming

  • Selection
  • Crossover
  • Mutation
  • Create NewGasXpertPlans asCLIPS Rules
  • Fitness
  • Evaluate Perfor-mance ofAll Plansin Popu-lationAcrossAllScenarios

Create Weather and Demand Scenarios

Expert System Control, Constraint,and Input/Output Rules

GasXpert Plan

(Supply contracts and storage capacitiesare considered fixed in this model)

EvaluatePerformance ofGiven Plan Across AllScenarios

EvaluatePerformance ofPlan on GivenScenario

ad