Climate change, Caribbean forests and livelihoods – Realities, challenges and options

1. Climate change, Caribbean forests and livelihoods – Realities, challenges and options Dr. Howard P. Nelson Project Manager/Scientific Advisor EU-ACP Edulink Biodiversity Project UWI – St. Augustine

2. Our livelihoods and our forests Forests provide critical goods and services to Caribbean peoples: • Water production; • Soil formation and protection; • Food, fiber and fuel; • Sustainable livelihoods through ecotourism and harvest of forest products; • Spiritual and cultural well-spring for regional people Climate change represents a significant change in the abiotic fabric supporting these regional forests;

3. Projecting the uncertain future • Current projections for climate change suggest a 1.4oC – 3.2oC change is likely in the next 100 years; • Greater than 50% chance of reduced precipitation in the Greater Antilles, Trinidad • Greater than 50% chance that sea-levels will rise by more than ½ of a metre; • Greater than 50% chance of increased intensity of hurricanes

4. Changes close to home – Trini. scenarios Current models suggest annual precipitation deficits 45mm and temperature increase between 1 -4oC before the end of the century.

5. Implications for forest landscapes in Trinidad

6. Existing tools and numerous caveats • Existing regional models of climate change are not yet of high enough resolution; • Need to reduce the degree of uncertainty in existing projections; • In most cases our understanding of what could happen to forest are based on only a handful of field studies;

7. Projecting the uncertain future Abiotic changes • Changes in thermal, moisture and light regimes in multi-stratal forests, particularly along forest edges (including gradient shape and absolute values); • Changes in surface and canopy wind velocities, esp. maximal velocities; • Increased frequency of anthropogenic fires; • These abiotic factors are synergistic

8. Making the bad worse Climate change has to be considered in the context of existing anthropogenic pressures on forests : Forest loss and fragmentation, Exotic species Over-exploitation of harvested species; Ecosystem stress (e.g. pollution, soil erosion, etc); The little data we have suggests that combination of the projected abiotic changes and the existing pressures will make current forest management challenges worse

9. Implications for forests • Forest extent – • decrease in extent of most systems due to increased hurricane intensity and return rates, and increased human mediated fires • Forest composition – • reduction of frequency of occurrence of tree species requiring more mesic conditions (on islands where there is a reduction in annual precipitation) • Forest distribution – • Potential for loss of high elevation forest types (due to changes in moisture and temperature regimes) • Extension of dry, semi-deciduous systems

10. Implications for terrestrials wildlife • Island endemic vertebrates - • Level of threat for high elevation island endemics may increase • endemic adapted to xeric habitats may marginally benefit; • All endemics may suffer due the rapid shift in environmental cues used for reproduction or in timing of availability of key food resources • Alien invasive species (terrestrial) - • Expect and increase in reproductive success, distribution and penetration into natural systems;

11. Implications for livelihoods • Most forest ecosystems in the Caribbean are already heavily relied on for services (e.g. hydrological function), for goods (e.g. timber, wildlife, and NTFPs), and non-consumptive uses (e.g. ecotourism); • Projected abiotic factors could reduce forest productivity, diversity and relative abundance of important resources; • For some consumptive uses, this may require switching the types of forest products used;

12. Adapting to forest use in the face of Climate Change • Forest managers in the Caribbean have always had to manage in the face of lack of information; • Need to take a precautionary approach; • Ensure that management actions protect species diversity, landscape patterns and processes; • Need to ensure that all stakeholders have access to emerging information on the state of the resource in the face of climate change;

13. Mind the Gap – critical data for forest management in the face of climate change • How will rates of recruitment of forest tree species be affected by climate change?; • How will annual increments of growth of forest tree species be affected by climate change?; • How will rates of mortality of forest tree species be affected by climate change?;

14. Mind the Gap – critical data for forest management in the face of climate change • How will endangered terrestrial species respond to climate change? • How will harvested wildlife species respond to climate change? • What will be the magnitude of the impact on rates of sustainable harvest for terrestrial species ?

15. Addressing the gaps in forest management • Need to rapidly establish means to monitor abioticfactors associated with various forest types in the region; • Need to identify sentinel species in each forest type which can be monitored to determine impact of on species composition, relative abundance and distributions; • Need to closely monitor critical services (e.g hydrologic patterns)

16. Preparing for the livelihood impacts Rural peoples depending on forest resources are among the most vulnerable to changes in the state of these resources; If climate change results in a shift in the quality and quantity of these resources, forest managers and other stakeholders must help these rural peoples to prepare for such changes: • diversifying the types of resources used by these stakeholders; • reducing waste of forest resources in consumptive uses; • preparing for complete shift in types of resources used; • training stakeholders to understand the scale of the impacts on the forests, and to use different resources;