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ASHRAE Birmingham Chapter. Tom Werkema ASHRAE Vice President Distinguished Lecturer September, 2013. ASHRAE WILL GIVE YOU THE WORLD. Give Back to ASHRAE. TEACH. NETWORK. LEARN. GROW. SHARE.

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Ashrae birmingham chapter

ASHRAE Birmingham Chapter

Tom Werkema

ASHRAE Vice President

Distinguished Lecturer

September, 2013


Ashrae will give you the world

ASHRAE WILL GIVE YOU THE WORLD

Give Back to ASHRAE

TEACH

NETWORK

LEARN

GROW

SHARE

This ASHRAE Distinguished Lecturer is brought to you by the Society Chapter Technology Transfer Committee


Complete the distinguished lecturer event summary critique
Complete the Distinguished Lecturer Event Summary Critique

Forms are available at:

www.ashrae.org/distinguishedlecturers

  • CTTC needs your feedback to continue to improve the DL Program

    • Distribute the DL Evaluation Form to all attendees

    • Collect at the end of the meeting

    • Compile the attendee rating on the Event Summary Critique

    • Send the completed Event Summary Critique to your CTTC RVC and ASHRAE Headquarters


BECOME A FUTURE LEADER IN ASHRAE – WRITE THE NEXT CHAPTER IN YOUR CAREER

Find your Place in ASHRAE! Visit www.ashrae.org

ASHRAE Members who attend their monthly chapter meetings become leaders and bring information and technology back to their job.

YOU ARE NEEDED FOR:

  • Membership Promotion

  • Research Promotion

  • Student Activities

  • Chapter Technology Transfer Technical Committee


Agenda
Agenda IN YOUR CAREER

1. Climate Change Science

BREAK

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Regions/States

5. Energy Efficiency

6. Ozone Science

7. Ozone International

8. Ozone Country Programs

9. Technology Impact

10. Personal Responses to Climate Change


What is the greenhouse effect
What is the “greenhouse effect”? IN YOUR CAREER

Like the sun, the Earth also emits radiation. It is much cooler than the sun, though, so it emits in the infrared, just like a person, a cat, or any other body. Some of that infrared energy may be absorbed by molecules in the atmosphere, affecting the global energy balance.


Venus has an atmosphere with more than 90% CO IN YOUR CAREER2. It also has sulfuric acid clouds. Its planetary greenhouse effect is about 500°C (the atmosphere raises the temperature by that much).

Earth has an atmosphere with much less CO2 than Venus. The greenhouse effect raises its average temperature by about 30°C.

The greenhouse effect is basic physics and it is real. What about greenhouse warming?


The atmosphere
The Atmosphere IN YOUR CAREER

CCS-2


Carbon dioxide 1960 2008
Carbon dioxide 1960-2008 IN YOUR CAREER



NOAA/AGGI years


Radiative forcing
Radiative Forcing years

CCS-7


Halocarbon emissions continued
Halocarbon Emissions, continued years

Combined CO2-equivalent emissions from halocarbons:

~7.5 Gt near 1990, about 33% of that year's CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel burning

~2.5 Gt near 2000, about 10% of that year’s CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel burning


Climate change international
Climate Change - International years

3 largest GHGs at record levels

Increasing at ever faster rate

CO2 @ 397 PPM

CH4 & N2O also up

Total increase 30% since 1990



Sea ice extent march 2012
Sea Ice Extent – March 2012 years

FIGURE 1. ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT ON MARCH 18 WAS 15.24 MILLION SQUARE KILOMETERS (5.88 MILLION SQUARE MILES). THE ORANGE LINE SHOWS THE 1979 TO 2000 MEDIAN EXTENT FOR THAT DAY. THE BLACK CROSS INDICATES THE GEOGRAPHIC NORTH POLE. SEA ICE INDEX DATA. ABOUT THE DATA.CREDIT: NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTERHIGH-RESOLUTION IMAGE



Figure 5. These images show declining sea ice age, which indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy NOAA/ESRL


Cloud changes the biggest cause of prediction uncertainty
Cloud changes: the biggest cause of indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.prediction uncertainty

Global warming will change cloud warming and cooling characteristics.

This will exert a powerful feedback on climate change,

but the feedback projected varies between models.


Antarctic Temperature Trends, 1966–2000 indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.


Components of sea-level rise indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.


Mt pinatubo philippines1
Mt. Pinatubo - Philippines indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.


Gulf stream aka global halon circulation system
Gulf Stream – aka Global Halon Circulation System indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.


1 indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

CO2

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

Date (year A.D.)


Decay of tetrafluoroethane (T = 14 years) in indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

the atmosphere compared to CO2

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

CO2

0.4

0.3

HFC-134a

0.2

0.1

0

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

Date (year A.D.)


Cut-off at a 100 year Integration indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

Time Horizon

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

CO2

0.4

0.3

HFC-134a

0.2

0.1

0

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

Date (year A.D.)


Agenda1
Agenda indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

1. Climate Change Science

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Regions/States

5. Energy Efficiency

6. Ozone Science

7. Ozone International

8. Ozone Country Programs

9. Technology Impact

10. Personal Responses to Climate Change


Global emissions scenario
Global Emissions Scenario indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

IS92 a IPCC 1992

Current estimates for emissions growth in Non-Annex 1 countries are even higher


Global emissions for 550 ppm stabilization
Global Emissions for 550 PPM Stabilization indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

IPCC 1994

Stabilization is not feasible without Non-Annex 1 countries’ participation


Climate change international1
Climate Change International indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

  • August 1990

  • June 1992

  • March/April 1995

  • December 1995

  • July 1996

  • December 1997

First IPCC Assessment

Rio de Janeiro, Framework

Convention on Climate

Change

Conference of Parties (1),

Berlin

Second IPCC Assessment

Conference of Parties (II),

Geneva

Conference of Parties (III),

Kyoto


Kyoto protocol
Kyoto Protocol indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

  • Controls Emissions

  • 6 Greenhouse Gases

    • CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6

  • Avg. reduction for developed countries

    • 5.2% from 1990 level

  • 2015 reduction-1.7ppm to 381.3 ppm

  • Now represents < 13% of total emissions


Climate change international2
Climate Change – International indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

Meetings in Doha, Qatar – Nov, Dec 2012

2013 November in Prague, Czech Republic

Agreed to continue Kyoto Protocol

8 year period from 2013

Did not agree to fund $100b/year for developing countries

Previous agreements would commence funding in 2015

Developed countries provided $30b in interim


Agenda2
Agenda indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

1. Climate Change Science

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Regions/States

5. Energy Efficiency

6. Ozone Science

7. Ozone International

8. Ozone Country Programs

9. Technology Impact

10. Personal Responses to Climate Change


Eu f gas regulation
EU F Gas Regulation indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

Key sectors – Refrigeration, a/c, heat pumps

Containment, Labeling, EOL Recover

Entered into force July 4, 2006


Eu f gas regulation1
EU F Gas Regulation indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

2013 Co-decision Process: Parliament and Commission

Quota fee 10 €/ MT CO2= € 1.2 B/yr

Baseline 2008-2012, reserve 5% for new importers/producers

Reviews every 5 years

Training, Certification

Leak Checks,

Record Keeping

Producer Responsibility – no cost recovery


Eu f gas regulation2
EU F Gas Regulation indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

Future Bans

Prohibit > 2,500 GWP 2020 or 2017

2022 no recycle for systems

Charge equipment where used except hermetically sealed

Quotas 2015-100%

2018 – 63%

2024 – 31%

2030 – 21% (Parliament 16%)

P/O domestic use 2030

Repair 1 week after leak detection


Eu f gas regulation3
EU F Gas Regulation indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

Bans

One component foam – 7/4/08

Aerosols – 7/4/09

Refrigerators/Freezers->150 GWP 1/1/15

(Parliament – All p/o 1/1/15)

Commercial Refrigeration - >2,500 GWP 1/1/17 (Parliament 1/1/15)

>150 GWP 1/1/20 (Parliament all 1/1/18)

Portable A/C >150 GWP 1/1/20

Mobile Refrigeration - 1/1/25

Stationary a/c – 1/1/20

Foams – XPS 1/1/16. PUR 1/1/20


Eu mobile a c directive
EU Mobile A/C Directive indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

1/1/11 no new model MAC > 150 GWP

1/1/17 no new MAC > 150 GWP

Tailpipe emissions separate regulation

<50 gms HFC/year Emission


Canada
Canada indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

HFC restricted to Significant New Activity Notice lists

No restriction on HFC-134a use

No restrictions on products containing HFCs

Mandatory reporting in 2005

Declared all GHGs CEPA Toxic

Many provinces were part of WCI

Only Quebec currently still participating


Us 2012 projected emissions
US – 2012 projected emissions indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

Total emissions up slightly since 1990

Now at about 1992 levels

KP – 7% decrease

Average 2008-2012

Climate commitment by Pres. Obama – 17% below 2005 in 2020

Recent study indicates 16.3% reduction at current pace

President Obama’s Climate program largely based on existing regulations & commitments


President obama june 25 2013
President Obama – June 25, 2013 indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

New/Existing Power Plant “C” Emissions Stds

$8b Loan Guarantees

DOI Permit Renewables for 6 M homes

Hydropower Project Priority Permit

100 MW Renewables on Fed Land by 2020

Better Building Challenge Expansion – 20% more efficiency by 2020

Commercial, Industrial, Multifamily

Appliance/Fed Bldg Efficiency sts to save 3 B MT CO2 /yr by 2030

Heavy Duty Vehicle Fuel Std

HFC, Methane reduction


President obama june 25 20131
President Obama – June 25, 2013 indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

Impact

Strengthen Communities

Innovative Strategies Post Sandy for future extreme weather

Flood Risk Reduction by Fed Funded Projects

Public-Private Hospital Partnerships

Agricultural Productivity

Nat’l drought Resilience Partnership – less vulnerable to catastrophic wild fires

Climate Data and Tool Kit Initiative


Us epa major activity
US EPA – Major Activity indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

Published “endangerment” Final Rule Dec 7, 2009

25,000 MT CO2e, not 250 MT hazardous pollutant

Determined GHG subject to Clean Air Act in January, 2011 (3/29/10)

Tailoring rule (5/13/10) Air Permits

Covers new facility 100,000 MT CO2e emission

Covers increases at existing facilities by 75,000 MT CO2e


Summary ghg cafe standards greenhouse gas corporate average fuel economy
Summary GHG/CAFE Standards indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.(Greenhouse Gas/Corporate Average Fuel Economy)

  • MYs 2012-2016

    • Emissions level of 250 grams/mile of CO2 = 35.5 miles per gallon in 2016

      • MPG is combined (cars/light trucks) fleet average

    • A/C Leakage and alternative refrigerant credit

  • MYs 2017-2025

    • A/C Leakage (or lower GWP refrigerant) and efficiency (indirect) credits

    • 63 g/mile of CO2 = 54.5 miles per gallon in 2025 for fleet

      • “Footprint” standard not average, target for each vehicle

      • New credits for indirect operation

    • A/C efficiency improvement required

    • 1234yf, CO2, and 152a mentioned as alternative refrigerants

  • Heavy Duty Truck Leakage Standards


Agenda3
Agenda indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

1. Climate Change Science

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Regions/States

5. Energy Efficiency

6. Ozone Science

7. Ozone International

8. Ozone Country Programs

9. Technology Impact

10. Personal Responses to Climate Change


State patch work initiatives
State “Patch Work” Initiatives indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover.

Western Climate Initiative – now Ca. and Quebec

California Cap & Trade rules published 10/2010

Implemented 1/1/12 – 85% Ca. industrial emissions

Lawsuit delayed compliance to 2013

Tightening targets to 2020 (at 1990)

Quebec >25,000 MT CO2e emitters 2013

RGGI

Utility Auctions for Pollution rights

Natural gas impact

Midwest effort appears dead


Assembly bill 32 the california global warming solutions act of 2006
Assembly Bill 32: The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006

  • September 2006: “The Time for Action is Now!”

  • Sets in statute 2020 emission limit at 1990 level


California climate action ab 32
California Climate Action–AB 32 Act of 2006

  • Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 12/31/20

    • Interim reductions 7/1/12, 7/1/16

  • Establishes multi-Agency Climate Action Board

  • Annual reports beginning 1/1/08

  • High GWP reductions from MAC – 2015

  • Stationary equipment refrig-a/c – 2012

  • Refrigerant recovery decommissioned shipping containers-2012

  • Residential refrigeration early retirement – 2011

  • Enforce no venting ban for MAC - 2010


Agenda4
Agenda Act of 2006

1. Climate Change Science

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Regions/States

5. Energy Efficiency

6. Ozone Science

7. Ozone International

8. Ozone Country Programs

Personal Responses to Climate Change


The challenge

The Challenge Act of 2006


Stabilization scenarios developed for US Climate Change Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy


Global Primary Energy: 550 ppmv Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Transport

Buildings

Industry

Nuc

Bio-mass

Coal

CCS

Gas

Oil

Stabilization scenarios developed for US Climate Change Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy


Thermal Efficiency (coal) Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy


Estimated cost of new resources 2016
Estimated Cost of New Resources, 2016 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

U.S. Average Levelized Costs (2008 $/megawatthour) for Plants Entering Service in 2016

Source: EIA

Industrial Energy Consumers of America


Gdp vs average price of electricity real dollars
GDP vs. Average Price of Electricity Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy( Real Dollars)

Source: EIA, BEA

Industrial Energy Consumers of America


U s industrial sector carbon intensity
U.S. Industrial Sector - Carbon Intensity Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

1987-2007: 45% Reduction

2000-2007: 19% Reduction

Source: EIA, BEA

Industrial Energy Consumers of America


Buildings in the overall us energy picture
Buildings in the Overall US Energy Picture Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

From: Steve Selkowitz, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2006


Energy efficiency potential used by sector Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035.


Agenda5
Agenda Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

1. Climate Change Science

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Regions/States

5. Energy Efficiency

6. Ozone Science

7. Ozone International

8. Ozone Country Programs

9. Technology Impact

10. Personal Responses to Climate Change


The Ozone Layer Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Sun

Ultraviolet

Radiation

Ozone

layer

The ozone layer is a protective blanket that filters out most of the harmful ultraviolet

Radiation from the sun. The ozone layer lies in the stratosphere typically between 8 and

25 miles (13 to 40 km) above the Earth’s surface.

AFEAS

September 1993


Stratospheric Ozone Production/Destruction Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Reservoir

Components

O2

(molecular

Oxygen)

Solar

Ultraviolet

energy

Solar

Ultraviolet

energy

Source

gases

Cl

(active

Species)

Solar

Ultraviolet

energy

O

(atomic

Oxygen)

O3

O2

Ozone

Destruction

cycle

O2

Cl2O2

Solar

Ultraviolet

energy

O2

O3

(ozone)

ClO

O

ClO

Production

Destruction (e.g., by chlorine


Variability in the ozone hole
Variability in the ozone hole Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Unusual ozone hole in 2002 due to dynamical variability


Ozone holes 2012
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for August 1, 2012


Ozone holes 20121
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for August 8, 2012


Ozone holes 20122
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for August 15, 2012


Ozone holes 20123
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for August 22, 2012


Ozone holes 20124
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for August 29, 2012


Ozone holes 20125
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for September 5, 2012


Ozone holes 20126
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for September 12, 2012


Ozone holes 20127
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for September 19, 2012


Ozone holes 20128
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for September 26, 2012


Ozone holes 20129
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for October 3, 2012


Ozone holes 201210
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for October 10, 2012


Ozone holes 201211
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for October 17, 2012


Ozone holes 201212
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for October 24, 2012


Ozone holes 201213
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for October 31, 2012


Ozone holes 201214
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for November 7, 2012


Ozone holes 201215
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for November 14, 2012


Ozone holes 201216
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for November 21, 2012


Ozone holes 201217
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for November 28, 2012


Ozone holes 201218
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for December 5, 2012


Ozone holes 201219
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for December 12, 2012


Ozone holes 201220
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for December 19, 2012


Ozone holes 201221
Ozone Holes 2012 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

OMI Total Ozone for December 26, 2012


Ozone hole 2013
Ozone Hole 2013 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

August 7, 2013


Ozone hole 20131
Ozone Hole 2013 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

August 14, 2013


Ozone hole 20132
Ozone Hole 2013 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

August 21, 2013


Ozone hole 20133
Ozone Hole 2013 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

August 28, 2013


Ozone hole 20134
Ozone Hole 2013 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

September 4, 2013


Ozone hole 20135
Ozone Hole 2013 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

September 11, 2013


Agenda6
Agenda Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

1. Climate Change Science

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Regions/States

5. Energy Efficiency

6. Ozone Science

7. Ozone International

8. Ozone Country Programs

9. Technology Impact

10. Personal Responses to Climate Change


Projected hfc growth
Projected HFC Growth Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

PNAS, 2009, Velders, et al

U.S. EPA, 2009

HFC growth linked to ODS phaseout, expanding availability of air conditioning & refrigeration

  • 122


Montreal protocol 2013
Montreal Protocol - 2013 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • EPA – hosted August HFC stakeholder meeting

    • SNAP applicability?

  • Mid year Bangkok meeting created “management” (not Amendment) group to discuss

    • Legal

    • Financial – money thru Montrl Protocol

    • Technical


Agenda7
Agenda Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

1. Climate Change Science

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Regions/States

5. Energy Efficiency

6. Ozone Science

7. Ozone International

8. Ozone Country Programs

9. Technology Impact

10. Personal Responses to Climate Change


Agenda8
Agenda Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

1. Climate Change Science

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Regions/States

5. Energy Efficiency

6. Ozone Science

7. Ozone International

8. Ozone Country Programs

9. Technology Impact

10. Personal Responses to Climate Change


Replacement of cfcs and halons in developed countries
Replacement of CFCs and Halons in Developed Countries* Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

HCFCs and

HFCs - 33%

HCFCs and

HFCs - 46%

HCFCs and

HFCs - 16%

Conservation and

non-fluorocarbon

technologies - 67%

Conservation and

non-fluorocarbon

technologies - 54%

Conservation and

non-fluorocarbon

technologies - 84%

HCFCs and

HFCs - <3%

HCFCs and

HFCs - <4%

HFCs - <5%

Conservation and

non-fluorocarbon

technologies - >96%

Conservation and

non-fluorocarbon

technologies - >95%

Non-fluorocarbon

technologies - >97%

HCFCs - 12%

*Based on linear extrapolation of CFC use

HFCs - 8%

Conservation and

non-fluorocarbon

technologies - 80%

CCS-8


Timeline for development of technologies used to meet ods phaseout in united states
Timeline for Development of Technologies Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and PolicyUsed to Meet ODS Phaseout in United States

  • Key Take-Aways

  • Alternatives were identified 12-18 years prior to phase out dates

  • 9 year advance notice from when Clean Air Act was known and 1st phase out occurred

  • 15 year advance notice from when Clean Air Act was known and HCFC-22 phase out occurred

  • 2.6%/year average reduction from phase out decision to 100% phase out

  • 4.2%/year average reduction from phase out decision to 75% reduction

  • Increasing equipment efficiency standards increases refrigerant charge amount


Class Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

No flame

propagation

1

2L

LFL > 0.1 kg/m3

and

HOC < 19 MJ/kg

2

LFL  0.1 kg/m3

or

HOC  19 MJ/kg

3

R-1234yf

Low Flammable Range

  • High LFL

  • Narrow flammable window

Difficult to ignite

  • High Min. Ignition Energy

Low impact of ignition

  • Low Burning Velocity

  • Low Heat of Combustion


Technology perspective
Technology Perspective Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Air Conditioning – Auto ACs

    • Standardized on 134a worldwide since 1994

      • EU MAC directive – no Refrigerant > 150 GWP new models 1/1/11

      • Existing model HFC-134a ban 1/1/17

      • HFO 1234yf being promoted with limited commercial supply

        • Mercedes rejected – “too flammable”

        • Toyota rejected – “customer concerns”

        • Returned to HFC-134a

        • France banned new Mercedes models in July

        • Working on Transcritical Carbon Dioxide

041703-139


Technology perspective1
Technology Perspective Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Auto Air Conditioning - continued

    • Counter trend is increasing energy efficiency, fuel cells

      • Reduced waste energy

      • 134a inefficient in heat pumps

    • Focus on service practices

    • US EPA granting mileage “credits” for using lower GWP a/c fluids


Technology perspective2
Technology Perspective Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Commercial Air Conditioning

    • Chillers historically HCFC-123 about 55-75% in North America

      • Less in ROW

      • The rest is HFC-134a

      • Now some movement toward HFO-1233ze

    • Other Commercial - < 50 Tons

      • US clear direction to R-410A scroll’s

      • Japan – Probably all R-410A >50T. about 50:50 134a:123 and moving toward R-410A >50T

      • HFC-32 in VFR systems


Technology perspective3
Technology Perspective Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Residential A/C & Heat Pumps

    • Europe/Japan – slow but gradual acceptance R-410A, moving from R-407C

    • North America 15-20% R-410A – but growing

    • Some European/Developing Countries – hydrocarbons in small charge systems

    • Middle East has major problem – high pressure with R-410A at 50o C ambient

    • Installed base mostly HCFC-22

    • Companies beginning to promote HFO/HFC blends


Technology perspective4
Technology Perspective Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Domestic Refrigeration

    • Market is fragmenting

    • Appliance – Europe & International moving to HC’s

      • North America/Japan using HFCs 134a, 245fa, HCs in Mexico and Japan

      • EPA has approved GE Monogram line with HCs – not being marketed as yet

      • Developing Countries increasingly moving to HCs

        • Influenced by European bilateral funding

4/11/03-137


Technology perspective5
Technology Perspective Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Commercial Refrigeration(vending, rack, ice machines)

    • North America/Japan using HFC-134a, R-404A (ice), R-507 (mostly HCFC-22 in use)

    • Europe –HFC-134a dominant, some HCs/ammonia indirect

      • mostly HCFC-22 in use

      • Some R-404a in new systems

      • Government promoted CO2 cascade systems in supermarkets, including US

      • R-22D and R-427A considered for retrofits

      • Article 5 countries – mostly HCFC-22

    • Multinational Corporations Coca Cola, et.al. slowing moving toward CO2

      • Cartridge systems in vending machines

041703-138


Refrigerant responsible use

Refrigerant Responsible Use Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy


Responsible Use Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

RUP’s – endorsed by

Over 30 government

& Trade associations


Responsible use guide update
Responsible Use Guide Update Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Fire Protection – first

Guide, will be revised


Responsible use guide
Responsible Use Guide Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Air conditioning &

Refrigeration –

The newest guide


Responsible use guides
Responsible Use Guides Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Refrigerators – very

Comprehensive for

Foams & refrigeration


Agenda9
Agenda Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

1. Climate Change Science

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Regions/States

5. Energy Efficiency

6. Ozone Science

7. Ozone International

8. Ozone Country Programs

9. Technology Impact

10. Personal Responses to Climate Change


Driving
Driving Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Drive 10% less –walk, carpool, public transit, in-line skate, telework

Don’t use car A/C, or use sparingly

Give up 2nd vehicle

Don’t idle – stop more than 10 seconds (except in traffic) turn off engine

Drive at posted speed limit 62 mph to 75 mph + 20% more fuel

Cruise Control


Driving1
Driving Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Block heater when temp below 32°F

Winter fuel economy  10%

Vehicle maintenance

Tire inflation – 70% of vehicles have one tire over/under inflated

Hybrid-electric vehicles

Remove roof racks when not in use


Home Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Install energy-efficient furnace

Caulking/weather stripping – could be 20% of heat/ac loses

Energy Star Label – windows/sliding doors

Install storm windows – could be 25% of heat/ac loses

Replace exterior doors

Use window blinds

Furnace maintenance every 2 years

1o = 5% energy savings – programmable thermostat

Seal/insulate warm air ducts

Upgrade insulation


Home Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Lower thermostat - 2°F=2%  heat bill

Shut off pilot lights

Ceiling Fans - 8¢ - $1.50/month (a/c $6-$40)

Remove window a/c in winter

Florescent light bulbs – light dimmers, occupancy sensors

Window curtains: open in winter, closed in summer

Clean/replace a/c-heating filters

Turn off all sources of heat in summer: lights, appliances, electrical equipment

Baking/washing/drying/ironing early morning or evening


Appliances
Appliances Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Clean refrigerator coils regularly

Energy Star

Unplug second refrigerator or freezer

Dishwasher no-heat/air dry cycle, not hand wash

Maintain refrigerator @ 35°F, freezer @ 0°F

Cloths rinse in cold, wash in warm water

Don’t overdry, hang clothes to dry

Purchase dryer with moisture sensor

Hot water tank pre 2004, insulate


Appliances1
Appliances Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Purchase front load washer – 40% less water per load

Efficient light bulbs-LED or fluorescent

Install outdoor automatic timers

Computer system with energy-saver option

Computer running full time: $70-$100 energy per year

Use “sleep” or “hibernate” mode

Smart Strip Power Strip

Use as little paper as possible

Buy right size monitor

Turn off computer at night – 1/3rd left on

40% of appliance energy used when off


Lawn Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Capture/reuse rainwater

Leave grass clippings on lawn

Water early in morning

Avoid chemical use

Limit use of gas powered mowers, tools

Pool efficiency

Plant trees


Home water
Home Water Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Low-flow showerheads

High-efficiency water heaters

Quick showers

Avoid running the tap

Insulate water pipes – (not w/i 6” of exhaust pipe)

Turn off cottage water heater

Turn water off when shaving/brushing teeth


Bonus material ashrae members make the difference

BONUS MATERIAL Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and PolicyASHRAE Members Make the Difference


First a few reminders
First, a Few Reminders Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Social Media

    • Chapter social media accounts & websites should be used for chapter business only

    • No political or religious statements should be allowed

  • All websites, social media accounts, promotional materials, brochures, t-shirts, banners, etc. must reflect the new ASHRAE brand, as of July 1.


Membership update
Membership Update Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • 53,700 total Members

    • 9,800 outside North America

    • Relatively stable or past year (+100)

    • Full dues-paying Members also stable


Renewing ashrae s strategic plan
Renewing Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and PolicyASHRAE’s Strategic Plan

  • The Board approved a comprehensive strategic plan revision starting this Fall

  • All stakeholders encouraged to provide input

    • chapter leaders should contact their DRCs

  • A Board-approved strategic and business plan anticipated by 2014 Annual Conference

  • Strong focus on:

    • Understanding member and industry needs

    • Serving stakeholders better

    • Clear direction and focus


Building energy quotient
Building Energy Quotient Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • In Operation Rating (Operational) launched in March 2012

  • As Designed Rating (Asset)

    • Launched in May 2013

    • Research project underway to develop expanded median EUI tables


Major standards under review revision
Major Standards Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policyunder Review/Revision


Free resources for members
Free Resources for Members Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Advanced Energy Design Guides

    • Available at www.ashrae.org/freeaedg

  • Free download of “Indoor Air Quality Guide: Best Practices for Design, Construction and Commissioning”

    www.ashrae.org/FreeIAQGuidance


Total Electronic Distribution: 467,230 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

June 2013


Aedg distribution june 2013
AEDG Distribution – June 2013 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • USA, Canada, India – about 90% of total


Aedgs june 2013
AEDGs June 2013 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy


Ashrae position docs update
ASHRAE Position Docs Update Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Energy Position Document: draft document undergoing some revisions

  • Climate Change Position Document updated March 2013

  • Commissioning Position Document: permanently postponed

  • Ammonia as a Refrigerant: Being updated

  • Indoor Combustion in Developing Countries: Roster is being evaluated

  • Air Filtration and Cleaning: Being updated

  • Limiting Mold Growth: updated with current references

  • Tobacco Smoke : reaffirmed

  • Legionellosis : Being updated

  • All 13 current Position Documents online at: www.ashrae.org/about-ashrae/position-documents


Advanced roof top unit campaign arc overview
Advanced Roof Top Unit Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and PolicyCampaign (ARC) Overview

  • Purpose: Encourage high efficiency RTU adoption

    • Replacements with high efficiency units

    • Retrofit controls for unit less than 10 years old

  • Players

    • Organizers: ASHRAE and RILA

    • Supporters: Utility programs, efficiency organizations, manufacturers, contractors

    • Participants: Building owners, RTU decision makers

    • Department of Energy provides technical support

    • www.advancedrtu.org


New standards activities
New Standards Activities Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Title, purpose, scopes approved for

    • Standard 189.2P, Standard for the Design of High-Performance, Sustainable Low-Rise Residential Buildings—approved in Denver

    • Standard 214P, Standard for Measuring and Expressing Building Energy Performance in a Rating Program—approved in Denver

  • Standard 90.4P, Energy Standard for Data Centers and Telecommunications Buildings—advisory public review expected later this summer


Research promotion
Research Promotion Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • New 2012-13 all time high ($2.2M)

    • 4.4% increase

    • 1.5% increase over

    • previous high in 2011-2012

  • Projects

    • 80+ active

    • 50 year total over 700


2014 15 changes in handbook benefit
2014-15 Changes Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policyin Handbook Benefit

New options to choose from:

  • Print volume (I-P or SI edition) + CD or

  • One-year ASHRAE Handbook Online subscription + separate CD mailing or

  • All three formats, print/CD/online


Ashraexchange
ASHRAExCHANGE Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • New online discussion platform

  • Topics: standards, design practices, ASHRAE issues, etc.

  • Open to all—no registration necessary

  • Volunteer moderators

www.ASHRAExCHANGE.org


Redlined versions of ashrae standards in online bookstore
Redlined Versions of ASHRAE Standards in Online Bookstore Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Identifies ASHRAE standards revisions:

    • changes made during standards revision process

    • Additions, deletions, etc., displayed in red

  • Users can easily change procedures, equipment, products, etc.


Newest publications
Newest Publications Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

District Cooling Guide

Understanding Psychrometrics, 3rd edition

District and Central Solar Hot Water Systems Design Guide

Data Center Essentials: Guidance on Energy- Efficient Design and Operation

Design, Construction and Operation of Underfloor Air Distribution Systems

HVAC Design Manual for Hospitals and Clinics, 2nd edition


Grassroots government activities committee ggac
Grassroots Government Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and PolicyActivities Committee (GGAC)

  • GGAC took over grassroots government activities role from Chapter Technology Transfer Committee July 1

  • Issues determined Society-wide, but local/regional government focus

  • Includes regional vice chairs supported by chapter chairs


Director and regional chair transition on members council
Director and Regional Chair Transition on Members Council Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Regional Members Council representatives (RMCRs) will replace DRCs on MC over the next three years

  • RMCRs to be selected by Chapters Regional Committees

  • Transition of membership began July 1

    • Allows Board business focus for DRCs

    • Provides regional member exposure and experience as ASHRAE leaders


Join us in 2013 2014
Join Us in 2013/2014 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • Oct. 15-18: IAQ 2013

    • Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

    • www.ashrae.org/iaq2013

  • 2014

    • Feb. 24-26: International Conference on Energy and Indoor Environment for Hot Climates

      • Doha, Qatar

      • www.ashrae.org/hotclimates


Join us in 2014
Join Us in 2014 Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  • April 6-8, 2014: High Performance Buildings Conference—San Francisco, Calif.

  • April 17, 2014: Energy and Water Efficiency without Compromising IEQ Webcast

  • April 24-25, 2014: Efficient, High Performance Buildings for Developing Economies Conference

    • Manila, Philippines

    • www.ashrae.org/Developing2014

  • June 28-July 2: 2014 ASHRAE Annual Conference

    • Seattle, Wash.

    • www.ashrae.org/Seattle

  • Sept. 10-12, 2014: ASHRAE/IBPSA-USA Building Simulation Conference—Atlanta, Ga.


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