Assessing Violent Risks: How Terrorism Affects the Bottom Line in Financial Services
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Assessing Violent Risks: How Terrorism Affects the Bottom Line in Financial Services 20 th May 2005. Impact on Financial Markets. Exclusive Analysis: Political Environment. Domestic Economic & Corporate Performance. Impact on Financial Markets. Global Market Drivers.

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Assessing Violent Risks: How Terrorism Affects the Bottom Line in Financial Services

20th May 2005


Impact on Financial Markets Line in Financial Services

Exclusive Analysis:

Political Environment

Domestic Economic & Corporate Performance

Impact on Financial Markets

Global Market Drivers


Targets not always victims Line in Financial Services

Flight of Expertise; Expats

Increased security costs, insurance premium and time

Disruptions to the supply chain

Consumer confidence, spending patterns and costing assumptions

Impact of Violent Risk on Profitability


Can very large losses be avoided or passed on? Line in Financial Services

What is the role of informed pricing?

Political Risk Forecasting and Insurance/Reinsurance


Strategic intelligence company which forecasts violent and political risk

Make the Future Intelligible, Predictable and Profitable

400 analysts and specialist sources worldwide with a

London based editorial team

Run Global Indexes, including Lloyd’s Cargo Watch List

Proprietary Model for Realistic Disaster Scenario Planning

Introduction to Exclusive Analysis


Total Client Accountability political risk

Full visibility

Forecasting is all we do

Privately owned

INDEPENDENT

TRANSPARENT

FOCUSSED

Audit trail and disclosure compliance

Revenue builds existing company

No broker ties

REPUTATION



Risk Definitions political risk

War

Political Risk

Civil Unrest

Terrorism


Philippines: Globe Telecoms political risk

  • NPA Communist attack on Globe Telecom in Hermosa, Bataan

  • NPA are prepared to extend violence to banks and mining properties


Terrorism in Bolochistan: Pipelines political risk

Saudi succession and evolving target set

Pipelines in Colombia

Taxation of foreign energy companies in Bolivia

East Timor

Equatorial Guinea

Sao Tome

Ceyhan-Baku pipeline

Energy


Oil from Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Eastern Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.

Strengthening of undemocratic regimes

Further civil unrest

Ceyhan-Baku Pipeline (BTC Project)


Banking

Banks Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.

Banking


Suicide bombings 2003 in Istanbul Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.

Al-Qaeda and a Turkish militant group

(Great Eastern Islamic Raiders’ Front)

4 small bombs in Ankara outside HSBC branch 2004

HSBC announced it is to stay despite risk of further attacks

Banks – HSBC Attacks


DR Congo: Mining Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.

  • Rioting in Mbuji Mayi, DR Congo

  • UDPS has flourished leading to civil unrest

  • Political mismanagement elevates instability


Ivory Coast: Cocoa Industry Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.

  • World’s main producer of cocoa

  • May 2005: Operation of Disarmament & Demobilization has been set in motion

  • Property will remain vulnerable


Hotels and Hospitality: Kenya Paradise Hotel 2002 Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.

  • Area with high concentration of tourists

  • Extensive damage to property

  • Threat to tourists industry set to increase


Case Study: Iraq’s Reconstruction Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.

Elections: January 2005

  • Who are the insurgents?

  • Elections have heightened sectarian and ethnic cleavages

  • Reintegration of Baathists

  • Kurdish autonomy


Escalating civil unrest Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.

2003

2004

2005

Departure of Gonzalez

Left wing parties increase pressure on government

Hydro carbon Law to destabilize Mesa

Aggressive militant protest

Escalating civil unrest

Case Study: Bolivia (Gas)


Assessing Violent Risks: How Terrorism Affects the Bottom Line in Financial Services

20th May 2005


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