Assessing Violent Risks: How Terrorism Affects the Bottom Line in Financial Services 20 th May 2005. Impact on Financial Markets. Exclusive Analysis: Political Environment. Domestic Economic & Corporate Performance. Impact on Financial Markets. Global Market Drivers.
Impact on Financial Markets Line in Financial Services
Domestic Economic & Corporate Performance
Impact on Financial Markets
Global Market Drivers
Targets not always victims Line in Financial Services
Flight of Expertise; Expats
Increased security costs, insurance premium and time
Disruptions to the supply chain
Consumer confidence, spending patterns and costing assumptions
Impact of Violent Risk on Profitability
Can very large losses be avoided or passed on? Line in Financial Services
What is the role of informed pricing?
Political Risk Forecasting and Insurance/Reinsurance
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Introduction to Exclusive Analysis
Total Client Accountability political risk
Forecasting is all we do
Audit trail and disclosure compliance
Revenue builds existing company
No broker ties
Case Study of EA Advice political risk
Risk Definitions political risk
Philippines: Globe Telecoms political risk
Terrorism in Bolochistan: Pipelines political risk
Saudi succession and evolving target set
Pipelines in Colombia
Taxation of foreign energy companies in Bolivia
Oil from Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Eastern Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.
Strengthening of undemocratic regimes
Further civil unrest
Ceyhan-Baku Pipeline (BTC Project)
Banks Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.Banking
Suicide bombings 2003 in Istanbul Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.
Al-Qaeda and a Turkish militant group
(Great Eastern Islamic Raiders’ Front)
4 small bombs in Ankara outside HSBC branch 2004
HSBC announced it is to stay despite risk of further attacks
Banks – HSBC Attacks
DR Congo: Mining Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.
Ivory Coast: Cocoa Industry Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.
Hotels and Hospitality: Kenya Paradise Hotel 2002 Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.
Case Study: Iraq’s Reconstruction Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.
Elections: January 2005
Escalating civil unrest Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea and then on to Western markets.
Departure of Gonzalez
Left wing parties increase pressure on government
Hydro carbon Law to destabilize Mesa
Aggressive militant protest
Escalating civil unrest
Case Study: Bolivia (Gas)