Climate variability and change: implications for CAT insurance and weather risk management. Dr William Wright Team Leader ET1.2 - Expert Team on Observing requirements and standards for climate, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Melbourne 3001 Australia.
Dr William Wright
Team Leader ET1.2 - Expert Team on
Observing requirements and standards for climate, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Melbourne 3001 Australia.
Ph: (61 3) 9669 4457 e-mail: [email protected]
- loss of faith among some, but
- some take view that, given decisions needed anyway, good to have even imperfect guidance.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: More El Nino-like or La Nina-like behaviour for periods up to 20-30 years. Strong influence in Aust-New Zealand in 20th Century.
No practical predictability. However, interannual (ENSO) predictability adversely affected during “warm” phase of PDO.
Other influence on longer-term time-scales is Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – affects position of subtropical ridge, therefore southern Australian rainfall. Decadal time-scales, possibly long-term trend.
- monitoring & attribution;
- defining extremes;
- adaptation, especially to support models, including downscaling
- observations must support major climate zones, significant socio-economic regions, and vulnerable areas.
Unfortunately WMO have concluded that the observational base to support this is in many cases inadequate.
- data rescue;
- data availability;
- sustainable observational networks
Thank you for listening. insurance and weather risk management