Ravaged by SARS:
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Ravaged by SARS: The Case of Hong Kong. SARS. Cumulative Number of SARS Cases in Hong Kong (as of Sept 11, 2003). SARS. Daily New Number of SARS Cases (up to June 11, 2003). SARS. Source: HKSAR Government press releases.

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Sars

Ravaged by SARS:

The Case of Hong Kong

SARS


Sars

Cumulative Number of SARS Cases in Hong Kong

(as of Sept 11, 2003)

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Sars

Daily New Number of SARS Cases (up to June 11, 2003)

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Source: HKSAR Government press releases.


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Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Medical Staff (up to June 11, 2003)

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Source: HKSAR Government press releases.


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Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Community Excl. Amoy Gardens(up to June 11, 2003)

Suspension of classes

Quarantine – contacts of suspected patients

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Quarantine – contacts of confirmed patients

Source: HKSAR Government press releases.


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Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Amoy Gardens (up to June 11, 2003)

Residents of Block E were being moved into holiday villages

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Source: HKSAR Government press releases.


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Cumulative Number of SARS Cases in Hong Kong (as of Sept 11, 2003)

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Total Mortality Rate due to SARS (up to June 11, 2003)

Mortality Rate among Discharged & Deaths

Mortality Rate among All cases

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Source: HKSAR Government press releases.


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Total Mortality Rate due to SARS by Age Groups (as on Sept 1, 2003)

299 deaths as at 1pm, Sept 1

Assumption: the age distribution of all cases is the same as that reported on Jun 6

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Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong


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Case Fatality Rate by Gender (as on Sept 1, 2003)

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Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong.


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Case Fatality Rate by Age Groups (as on Sept 1, 2003)

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Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong.


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SARS came at a bad time

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Economic Fallout

SARS is an exogenous NEGATIVE demand shock to the aggregate demand.

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Losses from SARS Large Initial Estimates

Hong Kong Federation of Restaurant and Related Trades

Mid April 50 restaurants closed temporarily

Hong Kong Retail Management Association

Early April Retail sales fell by 50%

Cathay Pacific Airways

Mid April Estimated loss per day is US$3mn; Cancellation of flights rose from 10% in late-March to over 40%

Cinema Association

Mid April Revenue in March dropped by 47%

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Gross Domestic Product (Year-on-year percentage changes)

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Retail Sales

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Unemployment and Under-employment

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Composite Consumer Price Index

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Cross-Border Truck Traffic (Mar 1, 2003 – Sept 8, 2003)

Lok Ma Chau

Inbound

Outbound

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Number of Air Passenger Arrival and Departure (Mar 1, 2003 – Jun 30, 2003)

Total Departure

Total Arrival

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Aircraft Movement at the Hong Kong Airport (Mar 1, 2003 – Aug 31, 2003)

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Hong Kong Visitor Arrivals (2002 August – 2003 July)

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Hotel Occupancy Rate (2003 January – 2003 July)

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Stock Price of Cathay Pacific (Mar 1, 2001 – Jul 31, 2003)

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Risk Premium of Hong Kong Dollar (Mar 1, 2002 – Jul 31, 2003)

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Note: Risk Premium = (1-Year Forward – Spot)  10,000

Source: Datastream.


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Stock Market Indices

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HK$ 11.8b Relief Measures

  • Salaries tax rebate: 2.3b

  • Concessions on rents, rates, water and

    other charges for a quarter

  • Temporary jobs and temporary training

    for unemployed workers: 430m

  • Loan guarantee fund: 3.5b

  • Disease control: 1.5b

  • Revival: 1b

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Other Relief Packages

On April 25, the Airport Authority offered a relief package worth HK$ 363m to airlines, retailers, caterers and franchisees badly hurt by SARS:

  • $100m worth of reductions for some

    charges

  • $263m worth of interest free deferred

    payments

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Contingent Measures

On May 25, less than 48 hours after the WHO lifted its travel advisory on Hong Kong, the Airport Authority announced a multi-million dollar revitalization package:

  • Airlines reinstating cancelled flights would enjoy a discount on landing charge, depending on load factor:

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Contingent Measures

  • For existing flights, more passengers carried (i.e. higher load factor) would result in higher discount in landing charge, also up to 50%.

    For example, a 10-percentage point increase in load factor will result in 10% discount on landing charge.

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Main Lessons

  • Information dissemination

  • Infection control measures

  • Environmental hygiene

  • Cross-border cooperation

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