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Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Through National Ambient Air Quality Standards : The Role of Regional Low Carbon Fuel Standards PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Through National Ambient Air Quality Standards : The Role of Regional Low Carbon Fuel Standards. Jeff Kessler [email protected] The National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Established under the clean air act

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Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Through National Ambient Air Quality Standards : The Role of Regional Low Carbon Fuel Standards

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Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Through National Ambient Air Quality Standards: The Role of Regional Low Carbon Fuel Standards

Jeff Kessler

[email protected]


The national ambient air quality standards naaqs

The National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

Established under the clean air act

Defines ambient air concentration limits for pollutants


6 pollutants regulated under naaqs

6 Pollutants regulated under NAAQS

carbon monoxide

nitrogen dioxide

sulfur dioxide

particulate matter

ozone

lead


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

NOx Emissions

Region A

EPA

Specified Limit

Non-compliance


The state must compose a state i mplementation p lan sip to bring areas into compliance

The state must compose a State Implementation Plan (SIP) to bring areas into compliance

The SIP is effectively a road map that details how a region may achieve compliance

States are penalized for not following the SIP, not for non-attainment of the NAAQS

  • Ineligible for Federal transportation funds

  • Termination of near-term transportation projects


The epa has authority to implement a co 2 naaqs

The EPA has authority to implement a CO2 NAAQS

Outcomes:

All regions effectively in non-compliance

SIPs may utilize any number of approaches to bring regions into compliance

Effectively triggers cap-and-trade policy


Carbon abatement from transportation is more expensive than from other sectors

Carbon abatement from transportation is more expensive than from other sectors

A transportation-specific SIP requirement is needed

A low-carbon fuel standard is one such option


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

What is a low-carbon fuel standard?

Average fuel carbon intensity cap (g CO2e/MJ)

AFCI

Baseline CI

Decreases by x (10%) percent over y (10) years


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

Carbon Dioxide

Population

Population mobility

miles traveled/person

Energy intensity of travel

CAFE Standard

Energy/mile traveled

Carbon intensity of energy

LCFS

CO2/Energy


Four regions are modeled

Four regions are modeled

LCFS implementations

Fuel composition over time

4 Regions

(New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Vermont)


The aggregate region is modeled

The aggregate region is modeled

LCFS implementation

Fuel composition over time

Harmonized region


Modeling methodology

Modeling methodology

  • Determine LCFS reduction schedules for each region

  • Determine what fuel composition will meet LCFS regulation in a given year


Lcfs reduction schedule what s possible

LCFS Reduction Schedule – What’s possible?


Lcfs reduction schedule

LCFS Reduction Schedule


Innovation minimization model

Innovation Minimization Model

The LCFS is a technology forcing policy.

Technologies are deployed based on their maturity status and their ability to meet the regulation in a given year

Therefore: minimize the rate of change of technology such that the LCFS is binding


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

Objective function:

Minimize the percent growth rate for each technology each year

Biofuel for the diesel pool, biofuel for the gasoline pool, electric/hydrogen vehicles.

Natural Gas use treated exogenously

Constraints:

  • No deficits associated with LCFS compliance by 2050 (credit banking, but not borrowing)

  • Energy demand in diesel pool is met

  • Energy demand in gasoline pool is met


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

Converged fuel deployment results required to meet the LCFS reduction schedule for A) New Jersey, B) Oregon, C) Vermont, and D) Washington


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

Converged fuel deployment results required to meet the LCFS reduction schedule for the aggregate region


What about biofuel availability

What about biofuel availability?

Additional constraint where total biofuel from region is less than or equal to 3.55 billion GGE per year (Parker, 2012).


Calculating abatement costs

Calculating abatement costs

Fuel supply was not based on fuel cost

Cost of fuel determined based on modeled fuel supply and supply curvers from Parker (2012)

Electricity rates and oil prices based on AEO 2013

Modeled AFV deployment cost compared to BAU cost


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

Average cost of abatement for each modeled region

Higher electric vehicle penetration contributes to lower future abatement costs.


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

Average cost of abatement for harmonized region over time


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

Questions?


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

Estimated AFV Deployment to meet schedule

A) Harmonized case

B) Biofuel limited case


Modeling of naaqs lcfs implementation

Modeling of NAAQS-LCFS implementation

Key aspects:

LCFS will be regionally implemented

Regions may have different LCFS implementation

Costs may differ across implementations


Biofuel diffusion curve

Biofuel Diffusion Curve


Lcfs reduction schedule1

LCFS Reduction Schedule


Greenhouse gas emission reductions through national ambient air quality standards the role of regional low carbon fuel standards

What fuel composition will meet LCFS regulation in a given year?


Lcfs reduction schedule2

LCFS Reduction Schedule

  • What’s viable?

    • Cellulosic ethanol introduced between 2010 and 2015 (CI: 36.01 gCO2e/MJ)

    • Cellulosic ethanol from farmed trees introduced between 2015 and 2020 (CI: 2.4 gCO2e/MJ)

    • Diffusion curve of technology to determine market penetration level

    • AFCI of 23 gCO2e/MJ by 2050 based on diffusion curve


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