Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Through National Ambient Air Quality Standards : The Role of Regional Low Carbon Fuel Standards. Jeff Kessler [email protected] The National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Established under the clean air act
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Through National Ambient Air Quality Standards: The Role of Regional Low Carbon Fuel Standards
Established under the clean air act
Defines ambient air concentration limits for pollutants
The SIP is effectively a road map that details how a region may achieve compliance
States are penalized for not following the SIP, not for non-attainment of the NAAQS
All regions effectively in non-compliance
SIPs may utilize any number of approaches to bring regions into compliance
Effectively triggers cap-and-trade policy
A transportation-specific SIP requirement is needed
A low-carbon fuel standard is one such option
What is a low-carbon fuel standard?
Average fuel carbon intensity cap (g CO2e/MJ)
Decreases by x (10%) percent over y (10) years
Energy intensity of travel
Carbon intensity of energy
Fuel composition over time
(New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Vermont)
Fuel composition over time
The LCFS is a technology forcing policy.
Technologies are deployed based on their maturity status and their ability to meet the regulation in a given year
Therefore: minimize the rate of change of technology such that the LCFS is binding
Minimize the percent growth rate for each technology each year
Biofuel for the diesel pool, biofuel for the gasoline pool, electric/hydrogen vehicles.
Natural Gas use treated exogenously
Converged fuel deployment results required to meet the LCFS reduction schedule for A) New Jersey, B) Oregon, C) Vermont, and D) Washington
Converged fuel deployment results required to meet the LCFS reduction schedule for the aggregate region
Additional constraint where total biofuel from region is less than or equal to 3.55 billion GGE per year (Parker, 2012).
Fuel supply was not based on fuel cost
Cost of fuel determined based on modeled fuel supply and supply curvers from Parker (2012)
Electricity rates and oil prices based on AEO 2013
Modeled AFV deployment cost compared to BAU cost
Average cost of abatement for each modeled region
Higher electric vehicle penetration contributes to lower future abatement costs.
Average cost of abatement for harmonized region over time
Estimated AFV Deployment to meet schedule
A) Harmonized case
B) Biofuel limited case
LCFS will be regionally implemented
Regions may have different LCFS implementation
Costs may differ across implementations
What fuel composition will meet LCFS regulation in a given year?