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Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Through National Ambient Air Quality Standards : The Role of Regional Low Carbon Fuel Standards. Jeff Kessler [email protected] The National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Established under the clean air act

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Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Through National Ambient Air Quality Standards: The Role of Regional Low Carbon Fuel Standards

Jeff Kessler

[email protected]


The national ambient air quality standards naaqs
The National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

Established under the clean air act

Defines ambient air concentration limits for pollutants


6 pollutants regulated under naaqs
6 Pollutants regulated under NAAQS

carbon monoxide

nitrogen dioxide

sulfur dioxide

particulate matter

ozone

lead


NOx Emissions

Region A

EPA

Specified Limit

Non-compliance


The state must compose a state i mplementation p lan sip to bring areas into compliance
The state must compose a State Implementation Plan (SIP) to bring areas into compliance

The SIP is effectively a road map that details how a region may achieve compliance

States are penalized for not following the SIP, not for non-attainment of the NAAQS

  • Ineligible for Federal transportation funds

  • Termination of near-term transportation projects


The epa has authority to implement a co 2 naaqs
The EPA has authority to implement a CO2 NAAQS

Outcomes:

All regions effectively in non-compliance

SIPs may utilize any number of approaches to bring regions into compliance

Effectively triggers cap-and-trade policy


Carbon abatement from transportation is more expensive than from other sectors
Carbon abatement from transportation is more expensive than from other sectors

A transportation-specific SIP requirement is needed

A low-carbon fuel standard is one such option


What is a low-carbon fuel standard? from other sectors

Average fuel carbon intensity cap (g CO2e/MJ)

AFCI

Baseline CI

Decreases by x (10%) percent over y (10) years


Carbon Dioxide from other sectors

Population

Population mobility

miles traveled/person

Energy intensity of travel

CAFE Standard

Energy/mile traveled

Carbon intensity of energy

LCFS

CO2/Energy


Four regions are modeled
Four regions are modeled from other sectors

LCFS implementations

Fuel composition over time

4 Regions

(New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Vermont)


The aggregate region is modeled
The aggregate region is modeled from other sectors

LCFS implementation

Fuel composition over time

Harmonized region


Modeling methodology
Modeling methodology from other sectors

  • Determine LCFS reduction schedules for each region

  • Determine what fuel composition will meet LCFS regulation in a given year



Lcfs reduction schedule
LCFS Reduction Schedule from other sectors


Innovation minimization model
Innovation Minimization Model from other sectors

The LCFS is a technology forcing policy.

Technologies are deployed based on their maturity status and their ability to meet the regulation in a given year

Therefore: minimize the rate of change of technology such that the LCFS is binding


Objective function: from other sectors

Minimize the percent growth rate for each technology each year

Biofuel for the diesel pool, biofuel for the gasoline pool, electric/hydrogen vehicles.

Natural Gas use treated exogenously

Constraints:

  • No deficits associated with LCFS compliance by 2050 (credit banking, but not borrowing)

  • Energy demand in diesel pool is met

  • Energy demand in gasoline pool is met


Converged fuel deployment results required to meet the LCFS reduction schedule for A) New Jersey, B) Oregon, C) Vermont, and D) Washington


Converged fuel deployment results required to meet the LCFS reduction schedule for the aggregate region


What about biofuel availability
What about biofuel availability? reduction schedule for the aggregate region

Additional constraint where total biofuel from region is less than or equal to 3.55 billion GGE per year (Parker, 2012).


Calculating abatement costs
Calculating abatement costs reduction schedule for the aggregate region

Fuel supply was not based on fuel cost

Cost of fuel determined based on modeled fuel supply and supply curvers from Parker (2012)

Electricity rates and oil prices based on AEO 2013

Modeled AFV deployment cost compared to BAU cost


Average cost of abatement for each modeled region reduction schedule for the aggregate region

Higher electric vehicle penetration contributes to lower future abatement costs.


Average cost of abatement for harmonized region over time reduction schedule for the aggregate region


Questions? reduction schedule for the aggregate region


Estimated AFV Deployment to meet schedule reduction schedule for the aggregate region

A) Harmonized case

B) Biofuel limited case


Modeling of naaqs lcfs implementation
Modeling of NAAQS-LCFS implementation reduction schedule for the aggregate region

Key aspects:

LCFS will be regionally implemented

Regions may have different LCFS implementation

Costs may differ across implementations


Biofuel diffusion curve
Biofuel Diffusion Curve reduction schedule for the aggregate region


Lcfs reduction schedule1
LCFS Reduction Schedule reduction schedule for the aggregate region


W reduction schedule for the aggregate regionhat fuel composition will meet LCFS regulation in a given year?


Lcfs reduction schedule2
LCFS Reduction Schedule reduction schedule for the aggregate region

  • What’s viable?

    • Cellulosic ethanol introduced between 2010 and 2015 (CI: 36.01 gCO2e/MJ)

    • Cellulosic ethanol from farmed trees introduced between 2015 and 2020 (CI: 2.4 gCO2e/MJ)

    • Diffusion curve of technology to determine market penetration level

    • AFCI of 23 gCO2e/MJ by 2050 based on diffusion curve


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