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Changes in population / household composition and commuting patterns of Christchurch communities post earthquakes. James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) August 14th, 2013 Seminar wrap up summary. Content. Community areas concept

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Changes in population / household composition and commuting patterns of Christchurch communities post earthquakes

James Newell, MERA

(Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd)

August 14th, 2013 Seminar wrap up summary


Content
Content patterns of Christchurch communities post earthquakes

  • Community areas concept

  • Change in distribution of children by community between March 2010 and March 2013

  • Changes in travel to school commuting relationships implied

  • Changes in job distribution and commuting


Background mera population monitoring and analysis sessions
Background - MERA population monitoring and analysis sessions

  • November 2011 Lincoln College

    • EQ Population and Employment Effects workshop

  • 26th April 2012

    • Public Seminar

  • 11th June 2012

    • Seminar and workshop

  • 18th September 2012

    • Seminar

  • 5th October 2012

    • Population estimates report to the Christchurch Urban Development Strategy partners released

  • 29th January 2013

    • Short lunchtime seminar

  • 18th March 2013

    • Short lunchtime seminar

  • 3rd July 2013

    • Afternoon seminar


Community areas concepts used
Community areas concepts used sessions

  • For Christchurch City – adopted the Council defined “community areas” and estimated these to 2006 mesh block boundaries

  • For Waimakariri and Selwyn Districts - a generic national “community of interest” classification fitted to 2006 mesh block boundaries


Christchurch city council community profiles
Christchurch City Council sessions“Community Profiles”

  • Includes some basic physical, demographic and other characteristics

  • Includes some innovative hybrid quantitative / qualitative measures

    • Social infrastructure mapping

    • Community resilience mapping

    • Earthquake impact analysis

  • Describe the “community environment

  • Summarises judgement / analysis of future risks and opportunities


Address matched school rolls

Address matched school rolls … sessions

Some detailed community level tables circulated with this presentation – some summary features in the slides …


Address matched school rolls analysed by community area
Address matched school rolls – analysed by community area sessions

  • Data used covers March 2009 to March 2013 so far

  • Residence and school location for children recoded/summarised to “community area”

  • Data still got some holes in it – school rolls missing for some years …

  • Residence location of school pupils left out (not many for some years)




Waimakariri selwyn wards years 1 to 5 of schooling roughly 5 9 year olds
Waimakariri (roughly 5-9 year olds) & Selwyn Wards– Years 1 to 5 of schooling (roughly 5-9 year olds)


Year of schooling 1 5 burwood pegasus ward
Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : (roughly 5-9 year olds)Burwood – Pegasus Ward


Year of schooling 1 5 burwood riccarton wigram ward
Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : (roughly 5-9 year olds)Burwood – Riccarton-Wigram Ward


Year of schooling 1 5 spreydon heathcote ward
Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : (roughly 5-9 year olds)Spreydon-Heathcote Ward


Maori ethnicity year of schooling 1 5 chch city by ward
Maori Ethnicity - Year (roughly 5-9 year olds)of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward


Pasifika ethnicity year of schooling 1 5 chch city by ward
Pasifika (roughly 5-9 year olds) Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward


Asian ethnicity year of schooling 1 5 chch city by ward
Asian Ethnicity - Year (roughly 5-9 year olds)of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward


European ethnicity year of schooling 1 5 chch city by ward
European Ethnicity - Year (roughly 5-9 year olds)of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward


Industry shift share analysis
Industry Shift (roughly 5-9 year olds)Share Analysis

  • Shift-Share Analysis following Dune (1960)

  • Where E represents employment

  • time is t, industry is i and region is j

  • NE represents National Employment Change Effect,

  • IM represents the Industry Mix Effect and

  • CE represents the Regional Competitive Effect.


Industry Shift Share Analysis – Greater Christchurch – Construction sector - business Demographic data jobs – 2000-2012


Putting it simply
Putting it simply.. Construction sector

  • National Employment Change Effect (NE) – represents the overall rate of change in national employment over a given period

  • Industry Mix Effect (IM) – represents the expected rate of change due to the mix of industries in a particular area over a given period

  • Regional Competitive Effect (CE) represents the difference from what would be expected changes in national employment and national trends in employment by industry ..


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