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Changes in population / household composition and commuting patterns of Christchurch communities post earthquakes. James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) August 14th, 2013 Seminar wrap up summary. Content. Community areas concept

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James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd)

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James newell mera monitoring and evaluation research associates ltd

Changes in population / household composition and commuting patterns of Christchurch communities post earthquakes

James Newell, MERA

(Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd)

August 14th, 2013 Seminar wrap up summary


Content

Content

  • Community areas concept

  • Change in distribution of children by community between March 2010 and March 2013

  • Changes in travel to school commuting relationships implied

  • Changes in job distribution and commuting


Background mera population monitoring and analysis sessions

Background - MERA population monitoring and analysis sessions

  • November 2011 Lincoln College

    • EQ Population and Employment Effects workshop

  • 26th April 2012

    • Public Seminar

  • 11th June 2012

    • Seminar and workshop

  • 18th September 2012

    • Seminar

  • 5th October 2012

    • Population estimates report to the Christchurch Urban Development Strategy partners released

  • 29th January 2013

    • Short lunchtime seminar

  • 18th March 2013

    • Short lunchtime seminar

  • 3rd July 2013

    • Afternoon seminar


Community areas concepts used

Community areas concepts used

  • For Christchurch City – adopted the Council defined “community areas” and estimated these to 2006 mesh block boundaries

  • For Waimakariri and Selwyn Districts - a generic national “community of interest” classification fitted to 2006 mesh block boundaries


Christchurch city council community profiles

Christchurch City Council “Community Profiles”

  • Includes some basic physical, demographic and other characteristics

  • Includes some innovative hybrid quantitative / qualitative measures

    • Social infrastructure mapping

    • Community resilience mapping

    • Earthquake impact analysis

  • Describe the “community environment

  • Summarises judgement / analysis of future risks and opportunities


Address matched school rolls

Address matched school rolls …

Some detailed community level tables circulated with this presentation – some summary features in the slides …


Address matched school rolls analysed by community area

Address matched school rolls – analysed by community area

  • Data used covers March 2009 to March 2013 so far

  • Residence and school location for children recoded/summarised to “community area”

  • Data still got some holes in it – school rolls missing for some years …

  • Residence location of school pupils left out (not many for some years)


Greater christchurch years 1 to 5 of schooling roughly 5 9 year olds

Greater Christchurch – Years 1 to 5 of schooling (roughly 5-9 year olds)


Christchurch city 2013 wards years 1 to 5 of schooling roughly 5 9 year olds

Christchurch City 2013 Wards– Years 1 to 5 of schooling (roughly 5-9 year olds)


Waimakariri selwyn wards years 1 to 5 of schooling roughly 5 9 year olds

Waimakariri & Selwyn Wards– Years 1 to 5 of schooling (roughly 5-9 year olds)


Year of schooling 1 5 burwood pegasus ward

Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Burwood – Pegasus Ward


Year of schooling 1 5 burwood riccarton wigram ward

Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Burwood – Riccarton-Wigram Ward


Year of schooling 1 5 spreydon heathcote ward

Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Spreydon-Heathcote Ward


Maori ethnicity year of schooling 1 5 chch city by ward

Maori Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward


Pasifika ethnicity year of schooling 1 5 chch city by ward

Pasifika Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward


Asian ethnicity year of schooling 1 5 chch city by ward

Asian Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward


European ethnicity year of schooling 1 5 chch city by ward

European Ethnicity - Year of Schooling 1 – 5 : Chch City by Ward


Industry shift share analysis

Industry Shift Share Analysis

  • Shift-Share Analysis following Dune (1960)

  • Where E represents employment

  • time is t, industry is i and region is j

  • NE represents National Employment Change Effect,

  • IM represents the Industry Mix Effect and

  • CE represents the Regional Competitive Effect.


James newell mera monitoring and evaluation research associates ltd

Industry Shift Share Analysis – Greater Christchurch – Construction sector - business Demographic data jobs – 2000-2012


Putting it simply

Putting it simply..

  • National Employment Change Effect (NE) – represents the overall rate of change in national employment over a given period

  • Industry Mix Effect (IM) – represents the expected rate of change due to the mix of industries in a particular area over a given period

  • Regional Competitive Effect (CE) represents the difference from what would be expected changes in national employment and national trends in employment by industry ..


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