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James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd)

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Changes in population / household composition and commuting patterns of Christchurch communities post earthquakes. James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) August 14th, 2013 Seminar wrap up summary. Content. Community areas concept

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slide1

Changes in population / household composition and commuting patterns of Christchurch communities post earthquakes

James Newell, MERA

(Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd)

August 14th, 2013 Seminar wrap up summary

content
Content
  • Community areas concept
  • Change in distribution of children by community between March 2010 and March 2013
  • Changes in travel to school commuting relationships implied
  • Changes in job distribution and commuting
background mera population monitoring and analysis sessions
Background - MERA population monitoring and analysis sessions
  • November 2011 Lincoln College
    • EQ Population and Employment Effects workshop
  • 26th April 2012
    • Public Seminar
  • 11th June 2012
    • Seminar and workshop
  • 18th September 2012
    • Seminar
  • 5th October 2012
    • Population estimates report to the Christchurch Urban Development Strategy partners released
  • 29th January 2013
    • Short lunchtime seminar
  • 18th March 2013
    • Short lunchtime seminar
  • 3rd July 2013
    • Afternoon seminar
community areas concepts used
Community areas concepts used
  • For Christchurch City – adopted the Council defined “community areas” and estimated these to 2006 mesh block boundaries
  • For Waimakariri and Selwyn Districts - a generic national “community of interest” classification fitted to 2006 mesh block boundaries
christchurch city council community profiles
Christchurch City Council “Community Profiles”
  • Includes some basic physical, demographic and other characteristics
  • Includes some innovative hybrid quantitative / qualitative measures
    • Social infrastructure mapping
    • Community resilience mapping
    • Earthquake impact analysis
  • Describe the “community environment
  • Summarises judgement / analysis of future risks and opportunities
address matched school rolls

Address matched school rolls …

Some detailed community level tables circulated with this presentation – some summary features in the slides …

address matched school rolls analysed by community area
Address matched school rolls – analysed by community area
  • Data used covers March 2009 to March 2013 so far
  • Residence and school location for children recoded/summarised to “community area”
  • Data still got some holes in it – school rolls missing for some years …
  • Residence location of school pupils left out (not many for some years)
industry shift share analysis
Industry Shift Share Analysis
  • Shift-Share Analysis following Dune (1960)
  • Where E represents employment
  • time is t, industry is i and region is j
  • NE represents National Employment Change Effect,
  • IM represents the Industry Mix Effect and
  • CE represents the Regional Competitive Effect.
slide21
Industry Shift Share Analysis – Greater Christchurch – Construction sector - business Demographic data jobs – 2000-2012
putting it simply
Putting it simply..
  • National Employment Change Effect (NE) – represents the overall rate of change in national employment over a given period
  • Industry Mix Effect (IM) – represents the expected rate of change due to the mix of industries in a particular area over a given period
  • Regional Competitive Effect (CE) represents the difference from what would be expected changes in national employment and national trends in employment by industry ..
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