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September Atlantic Hurricane Season Update 06 September 2012

September Atlantic Hurricane Season Update 06 September 2012. Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com. ImpactWeather helps our clients worldwide operate safely, effectively and efficiently in all weather conditions.

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September Atlantic Hurricane Season Update 06 September 2012

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  1. September Atlantic HurricaneSeason Update 06 September 2012 Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com

  2. ImpactWeather helps our clients worldwide operate safely, effectively and efficiently in all weather conditions.

  3. September Atlantic HurricaneSeason Update 06 September 2012 Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com

  4. Topics For Today • Review of the season through early September • Why so many August storms (MJO, ENSO & CCKWs) • Current Trends (Disturbance 45, Leslie and Michael) • Forecast (ENSO, MJO and Kelvin) • Seasonal update, including risk areas through October

  5. Climatology suggests activity should increase significantly soon Today You are here

  6. As of September 6th– 13 named storms 6 Storms Formed after the 15th! X Isaac Helene Gordon Kirk Leslie Ernesto Helene Isaac Florence Joyce

  7. August, 2012 Verification X Isaac X Helene

  8. Why so Active in August? • Favorable Geographic position for the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)

  9. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) a “pulse” of increased TC activity originates in Indian Ocean and tracks eastward (40-day cycle)

  10. Wheeler Diagram helps us track the position and strength of the MJO Typically the MJO moves in a counterclockwise direction...from the Indian Ocean through the Pacific-Atlantic and Africa Increasingly Less Favorable UNFAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE Regions 7 & 8 are unfavorable areas for TC development over the Atlantic Basin, mainly due to elevated wind shear MJO Position from Aug 17-31 Increasingly More Favorable Regions 2 & 3 are favorable areas for TC development over the Atlantic Basin, mainly due to lower wind shear FAVORABLE FAVORABLE

  11. Why so Active in August? • Favorable Geographic position for the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) • El Niño development remained slow during August

  12. Slow increase into El Niño Territory El Niño Territory Higher Wind Shear Neutral La Niña Territory Lower Wind Shear

  13. Why so Active in August? • Favorable Geographic position for the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) • El Niño development remained slow during August • Suppressive CCKW phase kept most of the tropical cyclones as either weak • tropical storms or only brief category 1 hurricanes

  14. New Term: Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKW) • Somewhat Similar to MJO • Period of 3-10 days • Affect Tropics Mainly Between 0N-20N • Development Occurs 1-2 Days AfterPassage of Wave Axis • Suppressed Conditions Between Waves

  15. Orange-Yellow Unfavorable Time Gulf Africa Longitude

  16. Current Trends

  17. Current Tropics Summary Hurricane Michael Disturbance 45 Hurricane Leslie Next Disturbance

  18. SAL Remains Inactive

  19. Disturbance 45: Satellite

  20. Disturbance 45: Forecast Track

  21. Disturbance 45: 5-day forecast

  22. Disturbance 45: Cold Front Effect

  23. 5-Day Rainfall Projections (inches)

  24. Leslie: Satellite

  25. Leslie: 5-Day Forecast Track Category 1 Hurricane Category 2 Hurricane

  26. Leslie: Scope of Winds

  27. Leslie: Model Tracks

  28. Michael: Satellite

  29. Michael: 5-Day Forecast Track MORE LIKELY TRACK LESS LIKELY TRACK

  30. Forecast

  31. Developing weak El Niño (Niño 3.4 already up to+0.9C)...More Shear?

  32. ENSO Forecast through October September / October Forecast El Niño Territory Higher Wind Shear Neutral La Niña Territory Lower Wind Shear

  33. Water Temperature Animation

  34. Developing weak El Niño (Niño 3.4 already up to+0.9C)...More Shear? • MJO favors more neutral regions later in the month after the 20th

  35. Increasingly Less Favorable UNFAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE Increasingly More Favorable FAVORABLE FAVORABLE

  36. MJO Forecasts GFS ECMWF UKMET Canadian

  37. Developing weak El Niño (Niño 3.4 already up to+0.9C)...More Shear? • MJO favors more neutral regions later in the month after Sept 20 • Unfavorable Kelvin phase over the next week to 10 days (suppressive phase west of 45W and favorable east of 45W)

  38. Kelvin Wave Forecast 45W Non Favorable Favorable Gulf Africa

  39. UNFAVORABLE Current UNFAVORABLE FAVORABLE Sept 10 UNFAVORABLE Sept 15 FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE Sept 20 FAVORABLE

  40. Developing weak El Niño (Niño 3.4 already up to+0.9C) = More Shear? • MJO favors more neutral regions later in the month after Sept 20th • Unfavorable Kelvin phase over the next week to 10 days (suppressive phase west of 45W and favorable east of 45W) • Overall signals are mixed with either favorable to neutral MJO conditions, an uncertain ENSO effect and mixed KW signals • Projecting 5 more named storms from September 6th through October (4 more in September and 1 more in October) • Season Final Total Increased To: 18 - 10 - 3

  41. Mean Flow Pattern H Slight Chance Sept 12-22 Longer Track Storms Still Possible Through Early October Monitor For Near Shore Activity • 18 Named Storms • 10 Hurricanes • 3 Intense Hurricanes (Cat. 3-4-5) Possible Development & Impact Regions Through October

  42. Questions? Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com

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