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CLIMA EN ESPAÑA: PASADO, PRESENTE Y FUTURO Contribución a un Informe de Evaluación del Cambio Climático Regional 11-12-13 Febrero 2009 Presentación: Salat & Pascual. Posible efecto de la diferencia de calentamiento entre el mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

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CLIMA EN ESPAÑA: PASADO, PRESENTE Y FUTURO

Contribución a un Informe de Evaluación del Cambio Climático Regional

11-12-13 Febrero 2009

Presentación: Salat & Pascual


Posible efecto de la diferencia de calentamiento entre el mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

Possible effect of air-sea differential warming trends on the Mediterranean basin precipitation seasonality

Jordi SALAT y Josep PASCUAL

Institut de Ciències del Mar de Barcelona (CSIC)

P. Marítim, 37-49. E-08003 Barcelona.

¿VOLVERÁN LAS LLUVIAS DE PRIMAVERA?


Global water cycle mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

¿Where is the water?

Oceans: 1370 106 km3

Continents: 35 106 km3

Atmosphere: 0,01 106 km3

On land:

Rivers, lakes, etc: 0,15 106 km3

Continental ice: 29 106 km3

Groundwater: 5,85 106 km3


Global water cycle mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

Water exchanges (hm3/s)?

From↓ To→

Ocean

Continent

Atmosphere

Ocean

-

-

13,5

Continent

1,3

-

2,2

Atmosphere

12,2

3,5

-

Percents on global water cycle:

Precipitation on land: 3,5/15,7=22%

Rivers: 1,3/15,7= 8%


Global water cycle mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

Precipitation on land from evaporation on

continents: 2,2 hm3/s= 0,069 106 km3/a (63%)

ocean: 1,3 hm3/s= 0,041 106 km3/a (37%)

Turnover times:

Continental* water: 35/0,069 ≈ 500 a

Marine water: 1350/0,041 ≈33000 a (66x)

*including permanent ice caps and ground water


Global water cycle mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

37 % of precipitation on the continents is originated in the ocean through evaporation


However, mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

Most research programs on the Global Water Cycle do not properly treat the ocean’s role.

Small components of the terrestrial water cycle receive great attention, yet elements of the much larger oceanic water cycle are ignored!

So that,

We know rather little about oceanic freshwater fluxes because Water Cycle research has focused on land and atmospheric processes, and neglected the much larger oceanic component.


Evaporation over the ocean mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

Recall:

37 % of precipitation on the continents is originated in the ocean through evaporation

  • On what depends?

  • Sea surface temperature must be higher than air temperature

  • and

  • 2. Evaporation will

  • + Increase with sea sea surface temperature

  • + Increase with wind

  • — Decrease with relative humidity of the air


Global warming mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

If the Earth is retaining heat, warming the air is faster than the ocean.

Because:

Specific heat of the ocean is 1100 times higher than the atmosphere.

Thus:

1. Air may allow more water vapour

2. Evaporation may increase

3. Water cycle is accelerating

But…

The ocean retains heat for longer


Global warming mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

As warming the air is going faster than the ocean, the occurrence of sea surface warmer than the air will be less frequent.

Hence:

Evaporation over the ocean will decrease

and

Precipitation on the continent originated from the sea could decrease.

As warming the air is going faster than the ocean, the occurrence of sea surface warmer than the air will be less frequent.

Hence:

Evaporation over the ocean will decrease

and

Precipitation on the continent originated from the sea could decrease.

This is the point!


The Mediterranan mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

View centered on 55°N 0°


The Mediterranean mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

The Mediterranean isn’t the sea between the lands …

but the sea between mountains


Dominant cold & dry northerly winds mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

Dry south

The Mediterranean


The Mediterranean mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

Surrounded by mountains

Small river basins*

Part of the southern side is very dry (desertic)

Frequent strong and dry winds in northern side

Evaporation exceeds precipitation over the basin

  • It imports sea water from the ocean,

  • and

  • 2. exports fresh water to other basins

*excluding the Nile river and Black sea basins


The Mediterranean mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

Water balance

Net export of water out of the basin through the atmosphere: 1,74 103 km3/a (must equal net input)


The Mediterranean mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

Is a big desalination plant producing

~ 5500 m3/s

for the neighbours

That’s solidarity!

But... may this change with “Global Warming” ?


Local scale: Observations mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

since 1974 at L’Estartit


Monthly temperature series mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

air

Sea

surface

Sea

at 80 m


°C/a mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

Annual

Winter

Spring

Summer

Fall

Air Temp.

0,054

0,045

0,082

0,062

0,053

Sea surface Temp.

0,036

0,020

0,011 min.

0,043

0,060 max.

0,034

0,049 max.

0,034

0,025 min.

Sea Temp @ 80 m

0,023

0,016

0,019

0,015

0,040

Mean Temp (0-80 m)

0,032

0,019

0,032

0,040

0,040

Air Temp. - SST

0,031

0,024

0,053

0,024

0,021

Summary of trends


Annual Cycle mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea


Annual cycle mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea


“Summer period” length mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea


Annual cycle mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea


Air and sea surface temperature mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

series (April-May)


“Dry period” length mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea


Summary of trends mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea


Trends in local precipitation mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea


Conclusions mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

  • A warming trend has been observed in the air and in all the sampled levels at sea (0-80 m)

  • The maximum trend has been observed in spring

  • Warming trend is higher in the air than at sea

  • The sea stratified period (summer) has been extended for 49 days in 34 years (24 days anticipated)

  • The period with air warmer than sea surface has been extended for 75 days in 35 years (41 days anticipated)

  • This evolution is unfavourable to evaporation during spring.

  • These changes may cause a reduction of spring rainfall, which accounted for ~30% of the total annual in the Mediterranean basin.

  • The marine component of the Water Cycle is quite relevant but still not well understood.


MUCHAS GRACIAS mar y el aire a las precipitaciones en la cuenca mediterránea

THANK YOU


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