Cbbh and sesox high level seminar south east europe in an environment of volatile capital flows
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CBBH and SESOX high level seminar South East Europe in an Environment of Volatile Capital Flows. Amir Hadžiomeragić Sarajevo, 6 June 2014. Capital flows to emerging markets: „Master or servant?“„Benefactor or menace?“.

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Cbbh and sesox high level seminar south east europe in an environment of volatile capital flows

CBBH and SESOXhighlevel seminarSouth East Europe in an Environment of VolatileCapitalFlows

Amir Hadžiomeragić

Sarajevo, 6 June 2014


Capital flows to emerging markets master or servant benefactor or menace

Capital flows to emerging markets: „Master or servant?“„Benefactor or menace?“

  • Unprecedentedvolume of capitalflows to emergingcountries in the last 20 years

  • Veryintensivediscussion on impact of capitalflows and capitalaccountliberalization

  • Twostrands of opinions on benefits of removingcapitalbarriers and enabling free capitalmovement

    • how to measuredirect and indirectbenefits and contribution to growth?

  • ...And veryuniformview about threats and possible negative aspects of capitalinflows


Amir had iomeragi sarajevo 6 june 2014

  • Negative impact of capital inflows can be classified into three major categories

    • Macroeconomic imbalances

    • Financial stability problems

    • „Sudden stop“ or reversals


Macroeconomic imbalances

Macroeconomic imbalances:

  • Excessive expansion of aggregate demand („overheating“) resulting with boom-bust growth

  • Exchange rate misalignment – real appreciation and loss of international competetivness

  • Widening current account

  • Increase in asset prices („bubbles“)

  • Inflationary pressure

  • Loss of monetary control


Financial stability problems from cross border banking flows

Financial stability problemsfrom cross-border banking flows

  • Very rapid credit expansion

  • Underestimation of the build-up in credit risk

    • Deterioration of loan portfolio quality

  • Sharp slowdown or reversal in bank-intermediated capital flows

  • Risk of financial contagion from other economies and regions


Macroeconomic performance and capital flows

Macroeconomic performance and capital flows

  • Sustainability of growth – prior to crises it was not questioned, but...

  • Real growth very much dependant on net capital flows

  • External disbalances also fueled with capital flows


Credit growth dependant on foreign capital flows in banking sector

Credit growth dependant on foreign capital flows in banking sector


Managing of capital flows for small open transition economy

Managing of capital flows for small open (transition) economy

  • Very difficult challenge („living in bathtube next to the ocean“)

  • Repeated episodes of large inflows and subsequent crises

  • Increased demand for capital inflows due to disbalance between investment and saving ratios

  • Global conditions are key factor driving capital inflows

    • increased liquidity (lower global interest rates)

    • risk appetite by investor, but also...

  • Country-specific factors also play important role for the EU accession countries,

    • lower risk premia associated with macroeconomic stabilization,

    • EU-related structural reforms


Managing of capital flows for small open transition economy1

Managing of capital flows for small open (transition) economy

  • recipient economy has got very limited capacities to control and influence capital flows

  • Mixed results with capital controls

  • EU accession dictates capital account liberalization

  • a need to have prudent economic policies in order to reap benefits from capital inflows and mitigate related risks


What makes economies more resilient to a surge in capital inflows

What makes economies more resilient to a surge in capital inflows?

  • WEO (2013) concluded that more resiliant economies have:

    • more flexible exchange rate

    • lower government spending (counter-cyclical fiscal policy)

    • inflation targeting (lower inflation)

    • significantly better economic institutions


Counter cyclical fiscal policy fiscal restraint is not very likely

Counter-cyclical fiscal policy (Fiscal restraint) is not very likely

  •  „When it rains, it pours" (Kaminsky et al.2004)

    • Study on procyclicality and economic policies

  • instead offsetting capital inflows, government often contribute with even higher expenditures in periods of economic growth and capital inflows


Amir had iomeragi sarajevo 6 june 2014

Did we repeat the same mistakes? Procyclicalfiscalpolicy in Bosnia and Herzegovinaduringcapitalsurge

Note: positive amplitude signals procyclicality


Conclusion

Conclusion

  • How to reap benefits from capital flows and reduce related risk?

  • Financial integration and economic globalization will continue

  • Need to be very cautious about magnitude and structure of capital flows to domestic economy

  • Volatility is highly unpredictable and beyond of our control

  • Sound macroeconomic policies and adequate prudential measures


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