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North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority Climate Working Group

New Brunswick, April 16, 2007 John Munson/ The Star-Ledger. New Jersey's Changing Climate With a Transportation Spin. North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority Climate Working Group Dr. David A. Robinson Chair, Department of Geography &

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North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority Climate Working Group

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  1. New Brunswick, April 16, 2007John Munson/The Star-Ledger New Jersey's Changing Climate With a Transportation Spin North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority Climate Working Group Dr. David A. RobinsonChair, Department of Geography & New Jersey State ClimatologistRutgers University September 28, 2010

  2. Office of the NJ State ClimatologistOur mission: Monitor Understand Inform http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim

  3. 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

  4. Weather & climateimpact all aspects of life in NJ • Transportation • Agriculture/horticulture • Ecology • Water resources • Public health & safety • Energy • Commerce

  5. Yes, transportation to be sure

  6. Indian Trails in the 1600s Mapping NJ, 2009

  7. Present Road Network Mapping NJ, 2009

  8. Rail lines: 1876 Mapping NJ, 2009

  9. 1. Traveling through NJ....or not2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

  10. Weather - Climate “Players”

  11. A mid-latitude squeeze play

  12. Diversity at home Altitude Latitude Surface Conditions Land-Water Contrasts Ocean Currents

  13. 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

  14. Climate past

  15. Past century of NJ climate variability

  16. Climate Observations Past 12 months of NJ's climate

  17. Coupled Climate Model Schematic

  18. Natural and anthropogenic forcings and 20th century temperatures Meehl, G.A., et al., 2004

  19. 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why?4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

  20. New Jersey's future climate • Rising temperatures • Steady or increasing precipitation • Increasing variability and extremes - storms, flood, drought, heat……. • Rising sea level

  21. More warming in the pipeline Future emissions Additional “zero-emission” warming (aka “commitment”) Warming to date

  22. Changes in heat index • The heat index combines the effects of temperature and humidity to estimate human comfort. • Results are from simulations with three global climate models with two emissions scenarios, representing the low and high ends of the IPCC range. • Under the high emissions scenario, Tri-State summers at the end of the 21st century are projected to be similar to those in Savannah, Georgia today.

  23. Effects of climate change on water resources: more floods and droughts? Delaware River, Sept. 2004 Easton-Phillipsburg BridgeJune 2006 Spruce Run Reservoir, March 2002

  24. A recent view of global mean sea level changes Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD  Grinsted,  Moore and Jevrejeva,Climate Dynamics, 2009

  25. Shipping through the Arctic

  26. Elevations below 10 feet in gray

  27. 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring?5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

  28. Managing climate change Knowledge:Develop a better understanding of the details of future climate change. Mitigation:Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Adaptation:Increase the resilience of society to climate change. Leadership:Raise public awareness of the challenges posed by climate change and the need to mitigate and adapt.

  29. 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change6. Keeping a watchful eye

  30. NJ Weather & Climate Network http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet

  31. Dry north, Central icing, Southern rain: Sunday evening 12/2/07 Red numbers2: rain 4: snow 6: freezing rain 7: drizzle

  32. Custom Quick Look Information

  33. Augmenting automated precipitation observations Daily observations by trained volunteers of all ages

  34. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) http://cocorahs.org

  35. Thanks drobins@rci.rutgers.edu http://climate.rutgers.edu

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