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Module 2 Introduction Context Content Area: Hypothesis Generation

Module 2 Introduction Context Content Area: Hypothesis Generation Essential Question (Generic): What hypotheses might explain the distribution of health-related events or states? Essential Question (Drug Abuse Specific): What hypotheses might explain drug abuse?

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Module 2 Introduction Context Content Area: Hypothesis Generation

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  1. Module 2 Introduction Context Content Area: Hypothesis Generation Essential Question (Generic): What hypotheses might explain the distribution of health-related events or states? Essential Question (Drug Abuse Specific): What hypotheses might explain drug abuse? Enduring Epidemiological Understanding: Clues for formulating hypotheses can be found by observing the way a health-related condition or behavior is distributed in a population. Synopsis In Module 2, students explore how descriptive epidemiological information on person, place, and time (PPT) are used to generate hypotheses to explain “why” a health-related event or state has occurred. Students begin to uncover and develop the following epidemiological concepts and skills: evaluating PPT information; developing hypotheses to explain that distribution; understanding that there may be more than one credible hypothesis; and recognizing when a particular hypothesis does NOT explain the PPT information. Lesson 2-1: Overview of PPT and What’s My Hypothesis? Lesson 2-2: In the News Lesson 2-3: Drug Abuse by “Person” Race / Ethnicity Lesson 2-4: Drug Abuse by “Place” States in USA Lesson 2-5: Drug Abuse by “Time” Boundary Effect

  2. Module 2 - Hypothesis Generation • Lesson 2-3 Drug Abuse by “Person” - Race / Ethnicity • Content • Review of the definition and purpose of descriptive epidemiology • “Person” information from Monitoring the Future survey data • Description of distributions of race/ethnicity according to the Monitoring the Future survey and the National Household Survey on Drug Use • Discussion of hypotheses that are generated from “Person” descriptive epidemiology • Big Ideas • Descriptive epidemiology of “Person” can generate hypotheses • Use of illicit drugs various considerably by race/ethnic groups and subgroups This generates further hypotheses about what sociological, cultural and other person, place and time factors might explain such differences • When generating hypotheses we must exercise caution in over-generalizing and also understand how race/ethnicity is a surrogate for a variety of other factors This project is supported by a Science Education Drug Abuse Partnership Award, Grant Number 1R24DA016357-01, from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health.

  3. Where are we? Essential Questions Enduring Understandings

  4. Review - Descriptive Epidemiology Epidemiologic studies that are concerned with characterizingthe amountand distributionof health and disease within a population.

  5. Review - Descriptive Epidemiology How is the disease distributed. Who gets the disease? Where does the disease occur? When does the disease occur?

  6. Sex Residence Year Occupation Events Season Age Anatomical Site Day, etc. SES Geographic Site Onset Review - Descriptive Epidemiology Epidemiological Factors (PPT) Person (who?) Place (where?) Time (when?)

  7. Sex Residence Year Occupation Events Season Age Anatomical Site Day, etc. SES Geographic Site Onset Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Epidemiological Factors (PPT) Person Place Time

  8. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person

  9. Recovery Incidence Death Prevalence Pot Review - Prevalence Pot In Out Recovery Recovery Incidence Death Death Prevalence Pot

  10. Any Illicit Drug: Trends in Annual Prevalence by Gender

  11. Any Illicit Drug: Trends in Annual Prevalence by Age and Gender

  12. Any Illicit Drug: Trends in Annual Prevalence by College Plans

  13. Any Illicit Drug: Trends in Annual Prevalence by Parents’ Average Education

  14. Any Illicit Drug: Trends in Annual Prevalence by Race/ Ethnicity ?

  15. Any Illicit Drug: Trends in Annual Prevalence by Race/ Ethnicity

  16. Marijuana: Trends in Annual Prevalence by Race/ Ethnicity ?

  17. Marijuana: Trends in Annual Prevalence by Race/ Ethnicity

  18. Cocaine: Trends in Annual Prevalence by Race/ Ethnicity ?

  19. Cocaine: Trends in Annual Prevalence by Race/ Ethnicity

  20. MDMA (Ecstasy): Trends in Annual Prevalence by Race/ Ethnicity ?

  21. MDMA (Ecstasy) Trends in Annual Prevalence by Race/ Ethnicity

  22. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person

  23. Challenges in Defining Race/Ethnicity Drug Use Among Racial and Ethnic Minorities

  24. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Drug Use Among Racial and Ethnic Minorities

  25. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Ways the Federal Government Uses Race / Ethnicity Data Enforcing the requirements of the Voting Rights Act Reviewing State redistricting plans Collecting and presenting population and population characteristics data, labor force data, education data, and vital and health statistics Establishing and evaluating Federal affirmative action plans and evaluating affirmative action and discrimination in employment in the private sector Monitoring the access of minorities to home mortgage loans under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Enforcing the Equal Credit Opportunity Act Monitoring and enforcing desegregation plans in the public schools Assisting minority businesses under the minority business development programs Enforcing the Fair Housing Act

  26. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  27. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent Drug Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana 05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  28. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use06.2 Marijuana 05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use of Any Illicit DrugAmong Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  29. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana 05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use of Any Illicit Drug Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 8.2 9.3 2.8 6.1 White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 What hypotheses might explain this distribution? Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  30. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use ofMarijuana Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  31. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use ofMarijuana Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.6 8.0 2.6 4.5 What hypotheses might explain this distribution? Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  32. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana 05.0 Cocaine00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use of Cocaine Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  33. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana 05.0 Cocaine00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use of Cocaine Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.0 1.3 What hypotheses might explain this distribution? Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  34. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana 05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use ofAlcohol Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  35. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana 05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use of Alcohol Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 55.3 39.8 43.3 34.5 45.4 What hypotheses might explain this distribution? Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  36. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana 05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use of Cigarettes Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  37. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana 05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use of Cigarettes Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 29.4 31.2 22.5 25.8 What hypotheses might explain this distribution? Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  38. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use of Marijuana Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent White, Non-Hispanic 5.0 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.6 American Indian / Alaskan Native 8.0 Asian / Pacific Islander 2.6 Hispanic 4.5 Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  39. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use ofMarijuana Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent White, Non-Hispanic 5.0 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.6 American Indian / Alaskan Native 8.0 Asian / Pacific Islander 2.6 Hispanic 4.5 White, Non-Hispanic 5.0 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.6 American Indian / Alaskan Native 8.0 Asian / Pacific Islander 2.6 Hispanic4.5 Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  40. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Marijuana Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent 5.0 6.6 8.0 2.6 4.5 White, Non-Hispanic Black, Non-Hispanic American Indian / Alaskan Native Asian / Pacific Islander Hispanic Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use ofMarijuana Among Hispanic Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent Puerto Rican Mexican Cuban Central American South American Other 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  41. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Marijuana Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent 5.0 6.6 8.0 2.6 4.5 White, Non-Hispanic Black, Non-Hispanic American Indian / Alaskan Native Asian / Pacific Islander Hispanic Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use ofMarijuana Among Hispanic Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent Puerto Rican Mexican Cuban Central American South American Other 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.6 4.5 2.1 3.2 2.1 3.4 What hypotheses might explain this distribution? Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  42. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimated Prevalence of Recent Illegal Drug Use by Race / Ethnicity: 1999-2000 Hidden Data White Black American Indian / Alaskan Native Asian / Pacific Islander Hispanic

  43. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimated Prevalence of Recent Illegal Drug Use by Race / Ethnicity: 1999-2000 White Black American Indian / Alaskan Native Asian / Pacific Islander Hispanic

  44. Estimate Prevalence of Use of Selected Drugs Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States: 1998 Used in Past Month DrugPercent Any Illegal Drug Use 06.2 Marijuana 05.0 Cocaine 00.8 Alcohol 51.7 Cigarettes 27.7 Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimate Prevalence of Use of Any Illicit Drug Among Persons Age 12 and Older in United States, By Race and Ethnicity: 1998 Optional - this is a duplicate of Slide # 29 Used in Past Month Race / Ethnic GroupPercent 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 8.2 9.3 2.8 6.1 White, Non-Hispanic 6.2 Black, Non-Hispanic 6.2 American Indian / Alaskan Native 6.2 Asian / Pacific Islander 6.2 Hispanic 6.2 What hypotheses might explain this distribution? Does race and ethnicity make a difference?

  45. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimated Prevalence of Recent Illegal Drug Use by Race / Ethnicity: 1999-2000 Hidden Data

  46. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Estimated Prevalence of Recent Illegal Drug Use by Race / Ethnicity: 1999-2000 What hypotheses might explain this distribution?

  47. Descriptive Epidemiology - Person Optional - data from one year later 2001 National Household  Survey on Drug Abuse http://www.oas.samhsa.gov/nhsda/2k1nhsda/vol1/chapter2.htm#2.race

  48. Let’s Be Careful About Generalizing . . . Students might note that it is difficult to generalize about a specific race/ethic group, and that each group contains a range of behaviors.

  49. Let’s Be Careful About What We are Measuring . . . Students might point out that illicit drug use may be strongly influenced by socio-economic and cultural factors such as conditions of poverty, religious mores, acceptability and/or legality of drugs in countries of origin, the nature of parental involvement in their children’s lives . . . . In other words, the race/ethnic characteristics are really surrogates or proxies for other traits that may influence drug use.

  50. Re-Cap • Big Ideas in this Lesson (2-3) • Descriptive epidemiology of “Person” can generate hypotheses • Use of illicit drugs various considerably by race/ethnic groups and subgroups This generates further hypotheses about what sociological, cultural and other person, place and time factors might explain such differences • When generating hypotheses we must exercise caution in over-generalizing and also understand how race/ethnicity is a surrogate for a variety of other factors This project is supported by a Science Education Drug Abuse Partnership Award, Grant Number 1R24DA016357-01, from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health.

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