Risks & Opportunities A World in Ferment

2. Risks & OpportunitiesA World in Ferment Life on Planet Earth

3. Planet Earth BYA 4.5 Earth is born Earth grew from a cloud of dust and rocks. Eventually rocks were massive enough to attract other rocks with the force of gravity, becoming the Earth 3.5 Origin of life Oldest confirmed fossils of single-celled microorganisms 3.4 Photosynthesis emerges 3.0 Plate techtonics large plates of rock move and collide 2.4 Oxidation Oxygen is released into the atmosphere 2.0 Complex cells begin to appear

4. Planet Earth MYA 1,000? Multicellular life 850-635 A frozen world 535 Cambrian explosion Animal species of all kinds appear within tens of millions of years 465 Plants colonise the land 460-430 Ice age leads to 1st mass extinction 375 Animal species walk on land 325 Dawn of the reptiles 300 Earth’s plates combine into one landmass

6. Big Mass Extinctions Mass extinctions = periods in Earth's history when abnormally large numbers of species die out within a relatively short time frame MYA Mass ExtinctionScale of extinction

7. Milestones in Human Evolution Years AgoEvent 2 million – 10,000 Most recent ice age 1.8 million – 10,000 PLEISTOCENE AGE 1.8 million – 200,000 Homo erectus exist 1 million – 500,000 Homo erectus tame fire 500,000 – 100,000 Lower Palaeolithic (Old Stone Age) 300,000 Geminga formed in supernova explosion (almost as bright as the Moon) 200,000 – 30,000 Homo sapiens neanderthalensis 150,000 – present Homo sapiens sapiens – HUMAN ERA

8. Evolutionary JourneyKey Features • The human species, like all other species, is engaged in a perpetual challenge-response dynamic: ADAPTING TO A CONSTANTLY CHANGING ENVIRONMENT • Some responses prove adaptive, others maladaptive • Test of adaptation is “reproductive efficiency” = capacity to keep on reproducing over the long-term. • Adaptiveness can be clearly evaluated only after the event. • Only outcome that is beyond dispute is extinction.

9. Evolutionary JourneyKey Features • Our planet and all life on it have evolved though an endless series of small, almost imperceptible changes. • BUT at given moments, which we call thresholds [TRANSITIONS], change gathers pace and intensity, as a result of which it can be said that we move from one epoch (or age) to another. • What is true of evolution as a whole is true of human evolution, but with one important difference – one additional layer of complexity: H E = biological inheritance xcultural inheritance within a changing environmental context

10. Milestones in Human Evolution Years AgoEvent 100,000 – 40,000 Middle Palaeolithic 100,000 – 50,000 Probable appearance of human language 60,000 – 40,000 Homo sapiens enter Australia 40,000 – 10,000 Upper Palaeolithic (Late Stone Age) 25,000 – 10,000 Most recent glaciation 20,000 Homo sapiens paint the Altamira Cave 12,000 – present Neolithic [Holocene age] 12,000 Homo sapiens domesticate dogs in Iraq 12,000 – 10,000 Agriculture is established in the Near East 10,000 First permanent homo sapiens settlements 10,000 Fire used to cast copper & harden pottery 5,200 Writing (cuneiform) is developed in Sumeria

11. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentEcological Perspective THE ANTHROPOCENE Some argue: Human activity has fundamentally changed the planet  we have entered a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene • Humans have directly affected <83% of planet’s viable land surface • They have impacted everything: • from the makeup of ecosystems to the geochemistry of the Earth • from the atmosphere to the oceans.

12. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentEcological Perspective Visual representation of geological time

13. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentEcological Perspective THE ANTHROPOCENE • Disagreement about its origins – When did this epoch begin? • Some say: It is impossible to know – or too early to tell • Others: Anthropocene began with the advent of agriculture • Others still: Since the Industrial Revolution • Yet others: After World War II: the Great Acceleration

14. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentEcological Perspective GLOBAL WARMING

15. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentEcological Perspective GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

16. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentEcological Perspective

17. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentGovernance Perspective • Human evolution cannot, however, be understood just in terms of environmental change & the ecological impact of human activity • To understand our current predicament we must have a sense of the road we’ve travelled over several thousand years • We need to revisit the way human societies have evolved culturally, how they have organised themselves – economically and politically – over time [= GOVERNANCE] • Only by doing this can we better understand where we currently find ourselves, and where we might be heading.

18. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentGovernance Perspective • Over time, human organisation has become increasingly complex: • From the prehistoric band of foragers (numbering a few dozen) • To the tribe (a few hundred) • To the chiefdom (a few thousand) • To the state (often over 50,000) • But there is more to complexity than size and demography

19. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentGovernance Perspective Over time more complex societies involve: • more intensive forms of food production • greater specialisation & division of labour • more elaborate patterns of exchange • more hierarchical forms of decision making • more elaborate bureaucratic structures • Moe centralised coercive institutions

20. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentGovernance Perspective • Rise of agricultural settlements (10,000 – 3,500 BCE) –first in Middle East and Asia • Early complex societies (3,500 – 2,000 BCE) – Mesopotamia, Egypt, India, China – Axial Age • Ancient civilisations (2,000 – 800 BCE) – powerful imperial states in Mesopotamia, Egypt, China • Classical civilisations (800 BCE – 200 CE) – Greece, Rome, China • Post classical empires (200 – 1,100 CE) – Byzantium, Abbasid empire in ME, Tang empire in China

21. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentGovernance Perspective MODERN EPOCH Pro Modern Periodlate 11th century to middle of 16th century Early Modern periodmiddle of 16th century to late 18th century Late Modern periodlate 18th to middle of 20th century

22. Making Sense of the Human PredicamentGovernance Perspective LATE MODERN PERIOD sees the rise of the modern industrial sovereign (liberal-democratic) national STATE