The Economic and Labour Market Outlook
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The Economic and Labour Market Outlook. Sonya Gulati Senior Economist November 2013. GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK. EMERGING MARKETS BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT. U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH TO ACCELERATE. FISCAL DRAG HAS WEIGHED ON U.S. GROWTH. THE FED’S EXIT STRATEGY. CANADA HAS OUTPERFORMED.

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The Economic and Labour Market Outlook

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The economic and labour market outlook

The Economic and Labour Market Outlook

Sonya Gulati

Senior Economist

November 2013


Global growth outlook

GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK


Emerging markets back in the spotlight

EMERGING MARKETS BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT


U s economic growth to accelerate

U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH TO ACCELERATE


Fiscal drag has weighed on u s growth

FISCAL DRAG HAS WEIGHED ON U.S. GROWTH


The fed s exit strategy

THE FED’S EXIT STRATEGY


Canada has outperformed

CANADA HAS OUTPERFORMED


Consumers governments can no longer be the engine of growth

CONSUMERS & GOVERNMENTS CAN NO LONGER BE THE ENGINE OF GROWTH


Household debt to grow more in line with incomes

HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO GROW MORE IN LINE WITH INCOMES


Canadian exports to pick up moderately in 2013 14

CANADIAN EXPORTS TO PICK UP MODERATELY IN 2013-14


Interest rates to remain low

INTEREST RATES TO REMAIN LOW


Canadian employers have been busy

CANADIAN EMPLOYERS HAVE BEEN BUSY


Most sectors have been adding to payrolls

MOST SECTORS HAVE BEEN ADDING TO PAYROLLS


The west has led job creation

THE WEST HAS LED JOB CREATION


Seniors increasingly leaving their thumbprint on the labour market

SENIORS INCREASINGLY LEAVING THEIR THUMBPRINT ON THE LABOUR MARKET


Youth by contrast have yet to recover from the recent downturn

YOUTH, BY CONTRAST, HAVE YET TO RECOVER FROM THE RECENT DOWNTURN


Supplementary unemployment measures point to labour surplus

SUPPLEMENTARY UNEMPLOYMENT MEASURES POINT TO LABOUR SURPLUS


Statistics canada vacancy rate has been relatively flat

STATISTICS CANADA VACANCY RATE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY FLAT


Alternative measure of vacancies points to increased mismatch

ALTERNATIVE MEASURE OF VACANCIES POINTS TO INCREASED MISMATCH


A few provinces showing real labour market tightness

A FEW PROVINCES SHOWING REAL LABOUR MARKET TIGHTNESS


But wage pressures have been surprisingly tame even out west

BUT, WAGE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY TAME, EVEN OUT WEST


Td economics long term labour market forecast

TD ECONOMICS LONG-TERM LABOUR MARKET FORECAST


The economic and labour market outlook

TD Economics

www.td.com/economics

This reportis provided by TD Economicsfor customers of TD Bank Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.


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