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Status Briefing on National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)

NUOPC. Status Briefing on National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC). Fred Toepfer, NUOPC PM May 29, 2008. Purpose. Brief review of NUOPC back ground & goals Status Next Steps. NUOPC Background. 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP

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Status Briefing on National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)

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  1. NUOPC Status Briefing on National Unified Operational Prediction Capability(NUOPC) Fred Toepfer, NUOPC PM May 29, 2008

  2. Purpose • Brief review of NUOPC back ground & goals • Status • Next Steps

  3. NUOPC Background • 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP • 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area • 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC • Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007 • Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US for Ocean and Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy N84) • 2008 – Appointed Project Manager • Executing NUOPC Phase I • ESG approved interim committee chairmen • Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008

  4. NUOPC Vision (2015) • Tri-Agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs • National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF) • Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble • Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather • Mission Specific ensemble products • National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion

  5. NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II Beta Test Phase III IOC-2 FOC IOC-1 MGMT REPORTG MOA Quarterly Updates to Principals STAFFING TT PM, TEMPS Full Staff CODE CONV. INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION MAINTAIN OPERATIONS CONOPS, COMMS, IA PROTOTYPE OPS ENS OPS TEST FOC STANDARDS PARTICIPATION OUTREACH Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP

  6. Status • PM appointed • Rest of staff being acquired – DPM, etc. • IOC-1 Redefined • Delivering NAEFS w/FNMOC Participation • Pursuing funding for three stretch goals • Definition of NUOPC • Three interim committees being formed • Chairmen of committees approved • Membership being fleshed out • Meeting with committee chairs today

  7. Info & Outreach Briefings • COPC (November 15, 2007) • AMS (Jan 22, 2008, New Orleans) • NOAA/NCEP (March 13, 2008) • Navy/FNMOC (April 2, 2008) • Stakeholders - R&D Community (29 April 2008, ONR) • NASA • FAA • OFCM • NOAA/OAR/NCEP/EMC/NODC • ONR/NRL • NCAR • DoD

  8. NUOPC Management Structure Air Force (A3O-W) Dr. Lewis Navy (CNO N84) RADM Gove NOAA (Administrator) VADM Lautenbacher Executive Steering Group Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA) Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC) Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR) NUOPC Project Manager - Fred Toepfer Deputy Project Manager - TBD Agency Liaisons LtCol Bruce Lambert Brian Moore Joel Cline Jeremy Potter Kim Curry Steve Payne NUOPC Staff Paul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley Common Model Architecture Unified Ensemble Operations Interim Committees Technology Transition

  9. Interim Committee Process • Common Model Architecture • to facilitate accelerated transition and sharing of technological advances • Technology Transition Process • Common process and DTC to accelerate transition of internal and external research • Coordinated research investment to address common operational needs • Unified Ensemble Operations • Shared processing burden, coordinated schedules, coordinated post-processing

  10. Committee Goals • Minimize operational center disruption • Achieve common architecture objectives while sustaining developmental headway • Achieve full stakeholder support • Develop well-defined standards that will focus research community participation and accelerate development • Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology • Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders)

  11. IOC-1 Status • NAEFS Implementation on Track • FNMOC ensembles flowing to NCEP since 1 April • Represents base IOC-1 • IOC-1 Stretch Goals Defined • Ensemble-based Ceiling & Visibility Product • Joint Wind-Seas Product • TC Track Uncertainty Guidance • 6 to14 Day TC Track and Intensity Guidance • Seeking funding for stretch goals

  12. Next Steps • Meet with Committee Chairs today • Identify committee members • ESG approve membership • Initiate committee meetings • Pursue funding for stretch goals • Establish forum for community awareness and input • Initiate one-on-one outreach meetings to primary R&D providers

  13. Questions & Comments

  14. The NUOPC Partnership • Coordinated technology development for future systems • Interoperable model architecture to allow for exchange of technology at the component level • Common Developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (DTC or VTC) • Prioritization of common operational needs • Aligned transition processes • Joint ensemble system with managed diversity • Share operational computing costs • Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency unique operational requirements through driving downstream applications • Significant acceleration in operational performance • Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group (ESG)

  15. NUOPC Description • The NUOPC partnership exists to enable a Tri-Agency joint global atmospheric ensemble forecast system • NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-agency management organization • NUOPC is not: • An R&D or acquisition project • A unified management system for operations or acquisition • A unification of agency missions

  16. Expectations • NUOPC is an agreement between the three operational production facilities to improve efficiency through collaboration. • Every attempt should be made to avoid significant disruption of the operational centers or to impede developmental headway. • The secondary objective of NUOPC is to entrain the broader research and development community into supporting research critical to the success of the operational centers.

  17. Launching NUOPC Phase I 1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09 Phase I Tasks ESG Approve & Hire PM Select Jan 08 Agencies Appoint Committee Reps Appoint Jan 08 IOC-1 Follow up Committee Tasks Committees/Panels work tasks Begin Phase II Implementation Jan 09 Sep 09 PM & Staff Review PM & Staff review committees’ progress Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 08 Interagency Review & Coord Coord May 09 Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS PM & Staff integrate Committee task results Committee Reports to PM & Staff ESG Approve Standards Decision Brief to Principals Staff Draft Standards Reports

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