Fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event A. Arnoud, La Logique, or l’art de penser, 1662. Primary objectives. Development of a methodology to support the definition of a risk reduction strategy
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Fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
A. Arnoud, La Logique, or l’art de penser, 1662
Organisation gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
Advisory committee
T. Maddison (HSE)
K. Jorgensen (Danish LI)
M. Christou (EUJRC)
Project manager
MinSZW
(J. Oh)
10 August 2005
Project coordinator
MinSZW
(J. Drost)
Product manager
(B. Ale)
Product manager
(A. Bloemhoff)
Technical secretary
(J. Versteegen)
Datawarehouse
(A. Eykelestam)
Costs of
measures
(M. Damen)
Survey
(J. Klein Hesselink)
Software
(L. Bellamy)
Management
factor
(A. Hale)
Bowtiebuilding
(I. Papazoglou)
Storybuilding
(L.Bellamy/A. Hale)
J. Whiston
M. Mud
M. Damen
M. Samwel
C. Paas
J. Quik
P. Sprenger
P. van Grieken
O. Aneziris
M. Mud
H. Baksteen
J.P. van ‘t Zand
L. Goossens
R. Whitehouse
S. Verschoof
J. Paap
J. Klein Hesselink
A. Bloemhoff
Quantification
(R. Whitehouse)
I. Papazoglou
A. Bloemhoff
Causes gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
Consequences
Basic causses gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
Accident
Damage
Eventtree
Faulttree
BowtieEverything leading up to the accident
Verything following the accident
Make barriers gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
Take away causes
Prevent accidentsOutcomes gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
rotha
Eventtree
Effectiveness of a barriersNeed number before and after
Basic failure events
Faulttree
Level of measures gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
population
With
reportable
accidents
population
without
reportable
accidents
Hazard gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
Activity 1
Activity 2
…..
Hazard
Job
Job
Hazard
Job
Job
Company
Activity nr Time or nr of missions gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
1
2
3
4
5
6
…….
No risk
RISK
Jobprofile
For ‘jobtitle’
Story gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
Builder
Scenarios
Accident data
Norms
Standards
Regulations
Bowtie
Builder
Bowties and
Barrieres
Exposure
Optimizer
Probabilities
Management
Factors
Optimal
Risk
reduction
Cost
Probability Influencing Entity
Influences one block at the time
Cost 1 gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
Measure 1
BowTie
Block
Strategy 1
PIE
PIE
Measure 2
Cost 1
Strategy 2
PIE
BowTie
Block
Strategy 3
Measure 3
Cost 1
PIE
PIE
PIE
Optimiser
TASKS gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
Provide
Use
Maintain
Monitor
Human influenceDELIVERIES
Procedures
Equipment
Ergonomics
Availability
Competence
Communication
Motivation
Conflictresolution
Barrier
PSB’s gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
stay on
stability
strength
Fall
Cause
SSB’s
DELIVERIES
DELIVERIES
right ladder
Procedures
Procedures
TASKS
TASKS
TASKS
Equipment
Equipment
Provide
Provide
Provide
plac&prot
Ergonomics
Ergonomics
Use
Use
Use
Availability
Availability
Maintain
Maintain
Maintain
Competence
Competence
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
ability
Communication
Communication
Motivation
Motivation
Conflict
Conflict


resolution
resolution
Also for PUMM gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event
% of paths = max reduction
BFE
BFE
LCE
LCE
BFE
BFE
P
+
(SSB = +)
cond
Change
% + state
SSB
Measure
PSB
CE
SSB
Deaths
1
Permanent injuries
10
Recoverable injuries
30
Deaths
1
Permanent injuries
10
Recoverable injuries
30
Deaths
1
Permanent injuries
5
Recoverable injuries
35
Deaths
1
Permanent injuries
7
Recoverable injuries
9
Deaths
1
Permanent injuries
5
Recoverable injuries
4
Deaths
1
Permanent injuries
40
Recoverable injuries
10
Humans are no match for machines
Get the exposure data gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event