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Fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event A. Arnoud, La Logique, or l’art de penser, 1662. Primary objectives. Development of a methodology to support the definition of a risk reduction strategy

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Fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

A. Arnoud, La Logique, or l’art de penser, 1662


Primary objectives
Primary objectives gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

  • Development of a methodology to support the definition of a risk reduction strategy

    • Optimising reduction of consequences, probabilities and costs

  • Application of the methodology to 25 hazardous activities

    • That take place in activities or occupations

    • Allowing the construction of a risk profile for that occupation

    • And developing a risk reduction strategy

  • The ultimate application takes place in the enterprises.


Organisation gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

Advisory committee

T. Maddison (HSE)

K. Jorgensen (Danish LI)

M. Christou (EU-JRC)

Project manager

MinSZW

(J. Oh)

10 August 2005

Project coordinator

MinSZW

(J. Drost)

Product manager

(B. Ale)

Product manager

(A. Bloemhoff)

Technical secretary

(J. Versteegen)

Datawarehouse

(A. Eykelestam)

Costs of

measures

(M. Damen)

Survey

(J. Klein Hesselink)

Software

(L. Bellamy)

Management

factor

(A. Hale)

Bowtiebuilding

(I. Papazoglou)

Storybuilding

(L.Bellamy/A. Hale)

J. Whiston

M. Mud

M. Damen

M. Samwel

C. Paas

J. Quik

P. Sprenger

P. van Grieken

O. Aneziris

M. Mud

H. Baksteen

J.P. van ‘t Zand

L. Goossens

R. Whitehouse

S. Verschoof

J. Paap

J. Klein Hesselink

A. Bloemhoff

Quantification

(R. Whitehouse)

I. Papazoglou

A. Bloemhoff


Causes gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

Consequences


Bow tie

Basic causses gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

Accident

Damage

Event-tree

Fault-tree

Bow-tie

Everything leading up to the accident

Verything following the accident


Prevent accidents

Make barriers gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

Take away causes

Prevent accidents


Effectiveness of a barriers

Outcomes gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

rotha

Event-tree

Effectiveness of a barriers

Need number before and after

Basic failure events

Fault-tree


Barriers are not perfect
Barriers are not perfect gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event


Level of measures gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

population

With

reportable

accidents

population

without

reportable

accidents


Metric
METRIC gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

  • The injury classes are

    • Death

    • Permanent injury

    • Recoverable injury

  • Risk is expressed as the frequency of having each of the three possible consequences per year of work.


Horrible stories reminder
Horrible stories (reminder) gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event


Volume
Volume gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

  • 10000 accidents: to analyse

  • Enter the storybuilder (another paper in this conference)


Hazard gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

Activity 1

Activity 2

…..

Hazard

Job

Job

Hazard

Job

Job

Company


Activity nr Time or nr of missions gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

1

2

3

4

5

6

…….

No risk

RISK

Jobprofile

For ‘jobtitle’


Story gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

Builder

Scenarios

Accident data

Norms

Standards

Regulations

Bowtie

Builder

Bowties and

Barrieres

Exposure

Optimizer

Probabilities

Management

Factors

Optimal

Risk

reduction

Cost


Ladders
Ladders gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

Probability Influencing Entity

Influences one block at the time


Cost 1 gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

Measure 1

Bow-Tie

Block

Strategy 1

PIE

PIE

Measure 2

Cost 1

Strategy 2

PIE

Bow-Tie

Block

Strategy 3

Measure 3

Cost 1

PIE

PIE

PIE

Optimiser


Human influence

TASKS gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

Provide

Use

Maintain

Monitor

Human influence

DELIVERIES

Procedures

Equipment

Ergonomics

Availability

Competence

Communication

Motivation

Conflict-resolution

Barrier


PSB’s gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

stay on

stability

strength

Fall

Cause

SSB’s

DELIVERIES

DELIVERIES

right ladder

Procedures

Procedures

TASKS

TASKS

TASKS

Equipment

Equipment

Provide

Provide

Provide

plac&prot

Ergonomics

Ergonomics

Use

Use

Use

Availability

Availability

Maintain

Maintain

Maintain

Competence

Competence

Monitor

Monitor

Monitor

ability

Communication

Communication

Motivation

Motivation

Conflict

Conflict

-

-

resolution

resolution


Also for PUMM gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

% of paths = max reduction

BFE

BFE

LCE

LCE

BFE

BFE

P

+

(SSB = +)

cond

Change

% + state

SSB

Measure

PSB

CE

SSB


Data selection
Data selection gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event


Further selection
Further selection gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event


Hazardous chemicals
Hazardous chemicals gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event


Heinrichs triangle
Heinrichs Triangle gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

Deaths

1

Permanent injuries

10

Recoverable injuries

30


1 1 1 ladder accidents
1.1.1. Ladder accidents gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

  • Every year there are on average 3 deaths from falls from a ladder, 30 permanent injuries and 90 recoverable serious injuries

Deaths

1

Permanent injuries

10

Recoverable injuries

30


1 1 2 scaffold accidents
1.1.2. Scaffold accidents gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

  • Every year there are around 70 falls from scaffold accidents

Deaths

1

Permanent injuries

5

Recoverable injuries

35


2 struck by moving vehicle
2. Struck by moving vehicle gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

  • Every year there are around 120 work accidents where a person is struck by a moving vehicle.

  • 6% of cases analysed resulted in death

  • In all the cases of death the victim was in an area normally designated “safe”

  • In all cases management failed to provide adequate barriers at some point in the scenarios

Deaths

1

Permanent injuries

7

Recoverable injuries

9


3 falling dropped collapsing objects
3. Falling/dropped/collapsing objects gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

  • Every year there are on average 240 accidents

Deaths

1

Permanent injuries

5

Recoverable injuries

4


8 1 machine accidents
8.1 Machine accidents gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

  • A first pass assessment suggests that every year there are around 500 machine accidents in Nederland involving contact with moving parts

Deaths

1

Permanent injuries

40

Recoverable injuries

10

Humans are no match for machines


Occupational accidents netherlands
Occupational accidents (Netherlands) gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event


Get the exposure data gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event


The end gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event

W

O

R

M


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