Neboj š a Naki ć enovi ć International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx

1. Sustainable Energy for All A Perspective from GEA Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wienxx naki@iiasa.ac.at Sustainable Energy for All, UN, NYC – 19-20 September 2011

2. 2030 Energy Goals • Universal Access to Modern Energy • Double Energy Efficiency Improvement • Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

3. Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake-holders work together. Energy transformation will bring multiple co-benefits for health, security, climate change Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.orgTowards a more Sustainable Future

4. Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density

5. Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake-holders work together. Energy transformation will bring multiple co-benefits for health, security, climate change Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.orgTowards a more Sustainable Future

6. 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas 1000 Oil Microchip Coal Commercialaviation Biomass 800 600 EJ Television Vacuumtube Gasolineengine 400 Electricmotor Steam engine 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Global Primary Energy Nuclearenergy Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

7. 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear 1000 Gas Microchip Oil Commercialaviation Coal 800 Biomass 600 EJ Television Vacuumtube Gasolineengine 400 Electricmotor Steam engine 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Nuclearenergy Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

8. 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear 1000 Gas Oil Coal 800 Biomass 600 EJ 400 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Nuclear phase-out (choice) Oil phase-out (necessary) Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

9. 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear 1000 Gas Oil Coal 800 Biomass 600 EJ 400 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Limited Intermittent REN Oil phase-out (necessary) Renewables Nuclear Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Gas Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – “negative CO2” Oil Coal Biomass Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

10. Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake-holders work together. Energy transformation will bring multiple co-benefits for health, security, climate change Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.orgTowards a more Sustainable Future

11. Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

12. Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

13. The Way Forward • Global Political Commitment – the huge multiple benefits as drivers • Country Level Action is Key – identifying what works best in each country • Private Sector is Key Partner – enabling environments for investment • Facilitating Decision Making – much analytic and data work needed • Supporting Country Efforts – financial and capacity development huge needs UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

14. Integrated Solutions • Political – links to global debates (MDGs, UNFCCC, WTO, RIO + 20, etc.) • Sectoral – links to policies in other sectors are fundamental • Geography - urban, provincial, regional, national linkages are necessary • People - education, information and incentives for lifestyle changes • Implementation - strong institutions (national and international) and facilitating mechanisms UN General Assembly resolution 65/151