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Cities And Global Change

Explore the end of the fossil fuel age, the beginning of the solar age, development of a conservation ethic, stabilization or decline of human population, and achieving a sustainable society.

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Cities And Global Change

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  1. Cities And Global Change

  2. Five Major Changes Of The Coming Millennium • The End of the Fossil Fuel Age • The Beginning of the Solar Age • The Development of a Conservation Ethic • Stabilization or Decline of the Human Population • Achieving a Sustainable Society

  3. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age • There are Two Reasons for the End of the Fossil Fuel Age • Over consumption and loss of the petroleum resource • Environmental degradation caused by fossil fuels

  4. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age • Loss of the Petroleum Resource • Use of fossil fuels will be a brief and passing event that has had an enormous impact on human history. • The consumption of any finite resource follows a bell curve • The peak of oil production in the US was in 1970 • The world peak production will probably be 2001 or very close to that date • Oil discovery by decade peaked in the 1960’s • Discovery of giant oil fields (>500 million bbls) peaked in 1965

  5. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age • Global Warming as an Example of Environmental Degradation • There is strong evidence that the Earth is warming naturally due to solar fluctuation and changes in the Earth’s orbit • CO2, methane, water vapor, fluorocarbons and other gases heat the Earth with the greenhouse effect • The atmosphere is transparent to visible wave lengths but opaque to infrared

  6. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age • Global Warming as an Example of Environmental Degradation • CO2 concentrations • Concentration has risen in all parts of the world • 280 ppm in pre-industrial air • 365 ppm on average in 1999

  7. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age • Global Warming as an Example of Environmental Degradation • Possible scenario • CO2 and other gases cause warming of oceans and atmosphere • Large temperature changes in the poles melts ice reducing the albedo and raising temperature • Worldwide climatic changes occur

  8. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age • Global Warming as an Example of Environmental Degradation • Average global temperature rise by 2025 may be 5ºF • 4ºF at the poles and 4ºF at the equator • Past temperatures • Holocene interglacial periods +4ºF • Pleistocene glacial periods -23ºF • The solution is to get off of fossil fuels

  9. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age • Global Warming as an Example of Environmental Degradation • Examples: • Mid-latitude climates shift northward 550 km • Loss of the eastern hardwood forest • Expansion of tropical diseases • Coastal flooding • Expanded deserts • Loss of mountain glaciers • Reef damage • Reduced ocean productivity

  10. The End of the Fossil Fuel Age • Other Examples of Environmental Problems • Acid Rain • Oil spills • Mine waste • Polluted groundwater • Traffic congestion

  11. The Solar Age • Changes in the Human Energy Base Cause Enormous Societal Changes • Old ways of life disappear and social, economic, and political institutions are radically changed • The transition from wood to coal brought the demise of the medieval era and the rise of the Industrial Revolution • Occurred in Europe between the thirteenth and sixteenth centuries

  12. The Solar Age • Changes in the Human Energy Base Cause Enormous Societal Changes • Transition began in England around 1250 AD when the people of Newcastle were without wood and were freezing • Henry II gave them coal to burn • Pope Pius II was amazed to see coal being used in England in the fifteenth century • Coal had replaced wood in England by 1700 and in Europe by 1850

  13. The Solar Age • Changes in the Human Energy Base Cause Enormous Societal Changes • Coal yielded more energy but required the invention of the steam engine to mine it • Society radically changed • Every aspect of modern life became dependent of fossil fuels

  14. The Solar Age • Definition Of Solar Energy • This is energy received from the sun by the Earth in the last 100 years • Hydroelectric power • Wind power • Wood • Ocean currents • Passive and direct solar power

  15. The Solar Age • Advantages of Solar Power • Solar energy received by the Earth is enormous = 17.7 X 1016 watts • Infinite supply • Constant supply • No pollution • No boycotts • Biologically compatible

  16. The Solar Age • Passive Solar Power • Space heating • Water heating

  17. The Solar Age • Direct Solar - Converts Sunlight to Electricity • This is very expensive • Modern 1000 MW plant would require 42 sq. Km. or 16.2 sq. miles • A future approach might involve satellite receivers microwaving the energy to Earth

  18. The Age of Conservation • Finite Resources • Preservation of finite resources will become a way of life • food, water, energy, and natural resources will be conserved

  19. The Age of Conservation • Some Hopeful Legislation • Energy Policy & Conservation Act 1975 • set the fleet average gas mileage • 20 miles/gallon • 27.5 miles/gallon • Building Energy Performance Standards 1976 • Energy Tax Act 1978 • progressive tax on gas guzzlers • National Energy Act 1978 • establishes standards and labels for appliances

  20. The Age of Conservation • Some Changes in the Future • Energy will be more expensive • Urban sprawl will end • People will live close to their employment and strive to minimize transportation • People will be highly educated about conservation • Growth will not be viewed as a positive thing

  21. Population Stabilizes or Declines • Population Growth will End on a World Wide Basis • The present growth spurt will be recognized as a brief event separating two very long periods of zero population growth.

  22. Population Stabilizes or Declines • The People Peak will Follow the Oil Peak • The transition from the present growth to the future stable population will be the difficult period • The level that the population achieves (carrying capacity) will depend on the condition of the environment and the remaining resources.

  23. Achieving a Sustainable Society will be the Ultimate Goal • The Concept of Sustained Yield • Resources are used at the same rate that they are created • The resource base is never destroyed

  24. Achieving a Sustainable Society will be the Ultimate Goal • Human History can be Divided into 3 Phases • Pre-industrial phase – long period of sustained yield with little economic growth • The industrial phase – short period of over consumption when machines lifted all limits on growth • The de-industrial phase – industrial economies decline to a new equilibrium period of sustained yield

  25. Achieving a Sustainable Society will be the Ultimate Goal • The Greatest Challenge of the New Millennium • Adjusting to the end of the age of fossil fuels and achieving a sustainable society

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