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State of the Workforce 2010

State of the Workforce 2010. Scott J. Sheely Executive Director Lancaster County Workforce Investment Board Lancaster, PA. Mega-Trends. Total Employment (2001-2009). Lancaster. Berks. York. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009.

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State of the Workforce 2010

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  1. State of the Workforce 2010 Scott J. Sheely Executive Director Lancaster County Workforce Investment Board Lancaster, PA

  2. Mega-Trends

  3. Total Employment (2001-2009) Lancaster Berks York 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

  4. Unemployment(October 2008-September 2010) Berks York Lancaster

  5. Job Creation (2001-2009) Lancaster York Berks 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

  6. Job Creation by Industry*(3rd quarter 2009) *The number of new jobs that are created by either new area businesses or the expansion of employment by existing businesses

  7. Net Job Flows (2001-2009) Berks 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

  8. Some Basic Observations • Net job flows have been fairly predictable…they rise in the first two quarters and fall in the last two quarters; • Fairly consistent with job creation trends; • A great deal of seasonality in retail, hospitality, and construction; • Jobs tend to follow the performance of the economy; • Manufacturing, construction, health care, hospitality and retail are still the main job creation engines in the County but transportation and business services are up and coming.

  9. Recession (2008-2009) and Recovery • Biggest job losses in the first quarters of 2009 and 2010; • Slow losses but trending upward through the second and third quarters with job creation still spiking in second quarters; • Lancaster has done better than Berks and York Counties.

  10. Lancaster in Comparison • Next release February 2011 • In 2008, the Lancaster GMP was $19.4 billion ranking it fifth among the metro economies in PA; • Philadelphia $331.9 billion • Pittsburgh $114.7 billion • Allentown-Bethlehem $29.7 billion • Harrisburg-Carlisle $27.9 billion • Scranton Wilkes-Barre $19.1 billion • Only single county SMA on the list

  11. Growth in GMP • From $14.5 billion in 2001 to… • $15.1 billion in 2002 • $15.7 billion in 2003 • $16.5 billion in 2004 • $17.3 billion in 2005 • $17.9 billion in 2006 • $18.7 billion in 2007 • $19.4 billion in 2008; • Average annual growth from 2001 to 2008 was 4.8%

  12. Change in GMP, 2001-2008

  13. Some Basic Observations • Overall vibrant economy that usually leads PA in growth; • Lags behind the national leaders but usually in the top half nationally; • Significant productivity gains in the area as measured by growth in GMP and smaller growth in employment; • Investments in technology are paying off in productivity; • Tremendous drag on growth from low-skill, low-pay jobs

  14. Change in Wages, 2001-2009 Berks Lancaster York 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

  15. Some Strengths • Health care is our major job creation engine, increasing employment by 34% and increasing location quotient by 13% from 2002-2010; • Transportation is a major surprise with a 31% increase in jobs and a 29% increase in location quotient in the period; • Manufacturing continues to hold its own with regard to competitiveness with some slippage over the period; • Business Services needs another look with 5% growth in the period

  16. Some Weaknesses • Large and growing contingent workforce; • Temporary workforce grew 9% between 2002 and 2010; • Highest number of temporaries are laborers, clerks, packers, customer services representatives, and health care workers (RN, LPN, nurses’ aides); • Large and growing Hospitality sector with gradually declining Retail and Personal Services sectors; • Retail is the second largest sector but declined 3% between 2002 and 2010; • Hospitality grew by 7% in the period

  17. Manufacturing • Lack of qualified workers are driving up wages as businesses compete, especially in manufacturing; • In Lancaster, over 15% of jobs still in manufacturing; • Manufacturing was the largest contributor in output to the County economy…$3.9 billion or over 20% of total output in 2008

  18. Challenges • Replacing the retiring Baby Boom workforce; • Better preparation of the emerging workforce; • Emphasize post-secondary technical training; • Include non-traditional workers; • Welfare-to-Work; • Ex-offenders; • Re-tooling Baby Boomers that still want to work; • Welcome immigrants; • Move more people out of the contingent workforce

  19. The Last Two Years

  20. The Last Two Years • Unemployment rose to new highs in Lancaster County from 3.6% in December 2007 to 7.3% in September 2010; • Lancaster County residents unemployed in September 2010: 19,600; • Most layoffs happened from December 2007 to December 2009; • At one point this summer, number of employed people grew at the same time the unemployment rate rose

  21. Industries Leading the Way to Recovery • Making significant comeback • Manufacturing (all sectors) • Logistics and Transportation • Wholesale Distribution • Financial Services making a slight recovery • Health Care has fallen off as a job generator • Nothing much happening in Construction

  22. Growing Occupations • Truck Drivers • Customer Service Reps, Sales Reps, Market Researchers • Managers and Supervisors, Public Relations, Human Resources • Engineers • Health Professionals still high but declining over last year

  23. Worst Case Scenario • Persons exhausting unemployment • Actual from January 1 through September 30: 1,333 • Projected for 2010: 3,613 • Additional 3,500+ for first quarter of 2011 • Veterans returning from active duty • Unemployment rate in excess of 10% • All stimulus funding expended

  24. Going Forward

  25. PA CareerLink of Lancaster County • 18 organizations that bring 65+ staff people together at Liberty Place • Currently seeing 1,300-1,500 people weekly • Increasing number of mature workers, ex-offenders, and persons on welfare having more difficulty with placement • www.jobs4lancaster.com

  26. Ready2Work • Work skills assessment • Enrichment of foundational skills, reinforcement of work skills • Coaching on resume writing and interviewing • Assessment using WorkKeys, a national workforce readiness by ACT • Career Readiness Credential (CRC) • CRC required before any training investments

  27. Pre-Employment Training • After completion of R2W, participants are eligible for additional short-term, skill-based training suggested by employers • Exploring an expanded use of training under the Workforce Investment Act • Welding, building maintenance, office procedures, fork life driving, ServeSafe, construction, basic machine maintenance • Printing 101 most successful • Manufacturing Skills Factory in January

  28. Reinvented Traditional Services • Job Club grew dramatically, adding a part-time option • Individual Training Accounts over $1 million over the last three years • Increasing involvement of ABE/ESL • New partnerships with Spanish-American Civic Association for bi-lingual skill training • Business Services Team has four full-time people doing liaison with the business community

  29. Last Program Year (2009-2010) • First Time Visits: 13,191 • Graduates from Ready2Work: 1,156 • ITAs: 395 • Pre-Employment: 1,057 • GEDs: 500 • Placements: 845

  30. Working with Ex-Offenders • Close working relationship with Lancaster County Re-entry Management Organization, Lancaster County Prison, and Lancaster County Adult Probation and Parole Services • Many ex-offenders participate in the R2W program and in training • Persons eligible for work release also involved • Job Court connection has a PO placed at PA CareerLink

  31. Industry Partnerships and Centers of Excellence • Designed to support the competitive advantages of key industries in the regional economy • Industry Partnerships are collaborations of multiple companies to share incumbent worker training • Centers of Excellence add local research and development, technology transfer, entrepreneurial development, and pipeline from school to work to incumbent worker training…strong connection to economic development • Last year, involved over 450 companies and trained more than 4,000 incumbent workers

  32. Industry Partnerships and Centers of Excellence • Center for Manufacturing Excellence (metals, plastics, and food) (www.centerformanufacturingexcellence.com) • COE in Production Agriculture (www.KeepLancasterCountyFarming.com) • COE in Renewable Energy (www.LancasterCountyRenewableEnergy.com) • COE in Long-Term Care Practice (www.coeinlongtermcarepractice.com) • Industrial Maintenance Training Center (www.imtcpa.com) • Pre-Apprenticeship Training Program in Construction

  33. Industrial Maintenance Training Center of PA • Trains incumbent workers in industrial maintenance and mechatronics engineering technology • Anchored at Reading Area Community College with branch at Lancaster County Career and Technology Center • 25+ schools replicating around PA • Industry skill standards developed with Packaging Machinery Manufacturers’ Institute • Competency model endorsed by US Department of Labor

  34. Contact Scott Sheely Executive Director Lancaster County Workforce Investment Board 313 W. Liberty St. Suite 114 Lancaster, PA 17603 717-735-0333 ssheely@verizon.net www.lancastercountywib.com

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