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Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety . Alan E. Pisarski Stakeholder Workshop August 25-26, 2010. Transportation is the collision of demography with geography . DEMOGRAPHY. GEOGRAPHY. TRANSPORTATION. DEMOGRAPHY. GEOGRAPHY. TRANSPORTATION. DEMOGRAPHY. GEOGRAPHY.

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Future view of transportation implications for safety

Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety

Alan E. Pisarski

Stakeholder Workshop

August 25-26, 2010

Transportation is the collision of

demography with geography












Leavened by technology and the economy

A quick look at
A Quick Look at:

  • Demography is Destiny

  • Licensing and Vehicle Ownership

  • Travel Behavior and Activity

  • Truck Freight

  • Implications for Safety


The Pre-labor Force Age Group

Labor Force Age Group

Post Labor Force Age Group


The old watch out school of planning doesn t apply any more
The Old “Watch Out” School of Planning Doesn’t Apply Any More

  • Watch Out! Here They Come!

  • There will be no Deluge of:

    • Young Population

    • New Cars

    • New Drivers (First Time Women Drivers)

    • Vmt

  • But – Maybe of:

    • Immigrant Drivers and

    • Older Drivers Continuing to Work/Drive

  • In Many Ways More Operable

Only small increases in potential new driver population
Only Small Increases in Potential New Driver Population Any More

  • Holds constant at 1.4% of pop til 2011 or so then drops to 1.3% of the pop thru 2050.

  • About 400,000 16 year olds added each decade; except the coming decade where less than 300,000 are added.

End of the worker boom
End of the Worker Boom Any More

  • 1980-90: 18.5 Million

  • 1990-2000: 13.3 Million

  • 2000-2010: NEGATIVE

  • Our problem may be too few commuters not too many!

A new role for older workers
A New Role For Any More Older Workers

Alan E. Pisarski

A possible 11 to 13 million workers over 65 by 2030
A Possible 11 to 13 Million Workers Any More over 65 by 2030

*Census Projections ^ Authors Estimates

The tools of travel
The Tools of Travel Any More


  • Saturation in all ages

  • Women’s gains

  • Immigrants


  • Stability

  • Aging fleet

  • Workers = Drivers


Women will close the licensing gap Any More

Men will live longer

Cars per household 48 year trend
Cars per Household – 48 Year Trend Any More

Households in thousands

Alan E. Pisarski

Household workers and vehicles
Household Workers and Vehicles Any More

  • In one worker hh 93% have one or more vehicles

  • In two worker hh 87% have two or more

  • In three + worker hh 74% have three or more

Stable vehicle ownership shares into the future
Stable Vehicle Ownership Shares into the Future Any More

Only 4.4% of workers in household with no vehicle 2008

Consumer spending on vehicles declining since 2003 2005
Consumer Spending on Vehicles Declining Since 2003-2005 Any More

Fewer vehicles? Older vehicles? More used vehicles?

Travel Any More

  • Fewer Trips

  • Trip lengths stable

  • Travel times stable

  • VMT slow growth

  • But, long distance travel boomlet?

    Is it the Economy or the Trend?

Trip making down recently preliminary nhtsa
Trip-making down recently Any More preliminary NHTSA

As Women’s Jobs Became More Like Men’s their Work Travel Became More Like Men’s! – Differences are Less Extreme

Vehicle trip and vmt distribution by purpose 2009 nhtsa preliminary
Vehicle trip and VMT distribution by Purpose Became More Like Men’s! – (2009 NHTSA –preliminary)

Average trip length by purpose 2009 nhtsa preliminary
Average Trip Length by Purpose Became More Like Men’s! – (2009 NHTSA -- preliminary)

Note: 20% of VMT is in trips over 50 miles Became More Like Men’s! –

Where people spend their time
Where People Spend Became More Like Men’s! – their Time

Immigrant work mode trend
Immigrant Work Mode Trend Became More Like Men’s! –


Only above a thousand miles does air travel win marketshare
Only Above a Thousand Miles Does Air Travel Win Marketshare Became More Like Men’s! –

Source: American Travel Survey 1995

The economy and travel
THE ECONOMY AND TRAVEL Became More Like Men’s! –

  • Declining shares of spending to transportation (housing?)

  • Less focus on new vehicles

  • Fuels impacts on costs

  • Fewer workers = less travel spending?

  • But, a boom in tourism?


Major transportation related trends
Major Transportation-Related Trends Became More Like Men’s! –

Source: Energy Outlook, DOE

Travel grows with income annual trips per hh by income level doesn t have to mean more crashes
Travel Grows With Income Became More Like Men’s! – Annual Trips per HH by Income LevelDoesn’t Have to Mean More Crashes


How do we spend our transportation money
How do we spend our transportation money? Became More Like Men’s! –

  • Dominant factor (94%) is acquisition, use and care of vehicles

  • Purchased transportation (6%) = anything you buy a ticket for: air, cruise, transit (13% of 6%), taxi

  • Un-reimbursed

Consumer expenditure survey BLS 2008

Transportation spending is all about workers
Transportation Spending is All about Workers Became More Like Men’s! –

Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2008

Density and distribution
Density and Distribution Became More Like Men’s! –

  • Pace of change has slowed

  • Suburban growth pattern continues

  • Large metro growth is the key but …

    Is it the Economy or the Trend?

Suburban growth continues but economy has slowed moves
Suburban Growth Continues but Economy has Slowed Moves Became More Like Men’s! –

  • 35 million people moved from 2007 to 2008; down from 40 million in 2005-2006

  • The mover rate dropped below 12%; lowest ever recorded (started 1948)

  • In met areas over a million pop suburban share:

    • was 51.3% in 2000

    • now at 52.5% in 2008;

    • gained 66% of the growth to 2008

      Census DomesticMobility Study

Mode usage to work by flow type
Mode Usage to Work by Flow Type Became More Like Men’s! –

The focus will be on big metros
The Focus will be on Big Metros - More Early Driving

  • Metros over a million

    • 1960 34 areas

    • 1990 39 areas

    • 2000 50 areas

    • 2005 53 areas

    • Probably 60 areas by 2020

    • 60% of population

  • 12 areas with more than 5 meg.

  • 1/3 of national pop.; 100 meg.

  • Growth is in exurb areas

Freight - More Early Driving

  • Increasing tons, vehicles and value

  • Increasing truck shares

  • Prospect of larger vehicles

  • More hazardous materials

  • Non-driver fatalities

Truck freight s role is massive
Truck Freight’s Role is Massive - More Early Driving

Freight facts and figures, 2008

Share of vmt by road system
Share of VMT by Road System - More Early Driving

Freight Story 2008

The hazardous materials role as well
The Hazardous Materials Role as well - More Early Driving

Freight Facts and Figures 2008

Truck related fatalities
Truck Related Fatalities - More Early Driving

We will see new sometimes dramatic patterns
We will see New, Sometimes Dramatic Patterns - More Early Driving

A replacement labor force of ? size & skills

A rapidly increasing dependent older pop

A pop heavily defined by immigration policy

Changes in energy & environment costs

Other intervening new technologies

All affected by and affecting changes in societal preferences and tastes.

Major safety implications
Major Safety Implications - More Early Driving



More post-work age workers

Slow fleet turn-over

Immigrant conflicts

Higher percentage of travel by older pop

More trucks, hazmat

  • Fewer young drivers

  • Stable vehicle & license growth

  • Younger working age group

  • Slower VMT growth – driven by pop & income

In summary
In Summary - More Early Driving

  • To me the central demographic questions for traffic safety of our generation are:

    • Will the post work-years group be forced to stay in the work place – because of their own or society’s needs?

    • To what extent will the abilities of the aging population to meet its own mobility needs diminish? – in what ways and at what rate?

    • Can cars and truck activities be made more compatible?

Thank you

Thank You! - More Early Driving

Alan E. Pisarski

with Special Thanks to

Forrest Council

and Hugh McGee

Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc

Questions? - More Early Driving