Future view of transportation implications for safety
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Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety . Alan E. Pisarski Stakeholder Workshop August 25-26, 2010. Transportation is the collision of demography with geography . DEMOGRAPHY. GEOGRAPHY. TRANSPORTATION. DEMOGRAPHY. GEOGRAPHY. TRANSPORTATION. DEMOGRAPHY. GEOGRAPHY.

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Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety

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Future view of transportation implications for safety

Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety

Alan E. Pisarski

Stakeholder Workshop

August 25-26, 2010


Future view of transportation implications for safety

Transportation is the collision of

demography with geography

DEMOGRAPHY

GEOGRAPHY

TRANSPORTATION


Future view of transportation implications for safety

DEMOGRAPHY

GEOGRAPHY

TRANSPORTATION


Future view of transportation implications for safety

DEMOGRAPHY

GEOGRAPHY

TRANSPORTATION

ECONOMY

TECHNOLOGY

Leavened by technology and the economy


A quick look at

A Quick Look at:

  • Demography is Destiny

  • Licensing and Vehicle Ownership

  • Travel Behavior and Activity

  • Truck Freight

  • Implications for Safety


Demography

Demography

The Pre-labor Force Age Group

Labor Force Age Group

Post Labor Force Age Group

OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS


The old watch out school of planning doesn t apply any more

The Old “Watch Out” School of Planning Doesn’t Apply Any More

  • Watch Out! Here They Come!

  • There will be no Deluge of:

    • Young Population

    • New Cars

    • New Drivers (First Time Women Drivers)

    • Vmt

  • But – Maybe of:

    • Immigrant Drivers and

    • Older Drivers Continuing to Work/Drive

  • In Many Ways More Operable


Not much growth to drive vmt

Not Much Growth to Drive VMT


Half of growth in aged pop will be safety challenge

Half of Growth in Aged Pop will be Safety Challenge


Only small increases in potential new driver population

Only Small Increases in Potential New Driver Population

  • Holds constant at 1.4% of pop til 2011 or so then drops to 1.3% of the pop thru 2050.

  • About 400,000 16 year olds added each decade; except the coming decade where less than 300,000 are added.


End of the worker boom

End of the Worker Boom

  • 1980-90: 18.5 Million

  • 1990-2000: 13.3 Million

  • 2000-2010: NEGATIVE

  • Our problem may be too few commuters not too many!


Where will the workers come from it could matter greatly

Where will the workers come from? It could matter greatly.


A new role for older workers

A New Role For Older Workers

Alan E. Pisarski


A possible 11 to 13 million workers over 65 by 2030

A Possible 11 to 13 Million Workers over 65 by 2030

*Census Projections ^ Authors Estimates


The tools of travel

The Tools of Travel

Licenses

  • Saturation in all ages

  • Women’s gains

  • Immigrants

Vehicles

  • Stability

  • Aging fleet

  • Workers = Drivers

IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND ?


Future view of transportation implications for safety

Women will close the licensing gap

Men will live longer


Cars per household 48 year trend

Cars per Household – 48 Year Trend

Households in thousands

Alan E. Pisarski


Why vehicle ownership matters work travel

Why Vehicle Ownership Matters – Work Travel

Alan E. Pisarski


Household workers and vehicles

Household Workers and Vehicles

  • In one worker hh 93% have one or more vehicles

  • In two worker hh 87% have two or more

  • In three + worker hh 74% have three or more


Stable vehicle ownership shares into the future

Stable Vehicle Ownership Shares into the Future

Only 4.4% of workers in household with no vehicle 2008


Consumer spending on vehicles declining since 2003 2005

Consumer Spending on Vehicles Declining Since 2003-2005

Fewer vehicles? Older vehicles? More used vehicles?


Travel

Travel

  • Fewer Trips

  • Trip lengths stable

  • Travel times stable

  • VMT slow growth

  • But, long distance travel boomlet?

    Is it the Economy or the Trend?


The role of the work trip has diminished with time

The Role of the Work Trip has Diminished with Time


Trip making down recently preliminary nhtsa

Trip-making down recentlypreliminary NHTSA


Mode shares to work are stable

Mode Shares to Work are Stable


Future view of transportation implications for safety

As Women’s Jobs Became More Like Men’s their Work Travel Became More Like Men’s! – Differences are Less Extreme


Vehicle trip and vmt distribution by purpose 2009 nhtsa preliminary

Vehicle trip and VMT distribution by Purpose (2009 NHTSA –preliminary)


Average trip length by purpose 2009 nhtsa preliminary

Average Trip Length by Purpose(2009 NHTSA -- preliminary)


Future view of transportation implications for safety

Note: 20% of VMT is in trips over 50 miles


Where people spend their time

Where People Spend their Time


Immigrant work mode trend

Immigrant Work Mode Trend

A NEGATIVE SAFETY TREND?


Only above a thousand miles does air travel win marketshare

Only Above a Thousand Miles Does Air Travel Win Marketshare

Source: American Travel Survey 1995


The economy and travel

THE ECONOMY AND TRAVEL

  • Declining shares of spending to transportation (housing?)

  • Less focus on new vehicles

  • Fuels impacts on costs

  • Fewer workers = less travel spending?

  • But, a boom in tourism?

    IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND?


Major transportation related trends

Major Transportation-Related Trends

Source: Energy Outlook, DOE


Travel grows with income annual trips per hh by income level doesn t have to mean more crashes

Travel Grows With Income Annual Trips per HH by Income LevelDoesn’t Have to Mean More Crashes

Future


How do we spend our transportation money

How do we spend our transportation money?

  • Dominant factor (94%) is acquisition, use and care of vehicles

  • Purchased transportation (6%) = anything you buy a ticket for: air, cruise, transit (13% of 6%), taxi

  • Un-reimbursed

Consumer expenditure survey BLS 2008


Transportation spending is all about workers

Transportation Spending is All about Workers

Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2008


We are spending less on transportation this decade

We are Spending Less on Transportation This Decade


Density and distribution

Density and Distribution

  • Pace of change has slowed

  • Suburban growth pattern continues

  • Large metro growth is the key but …

    Is it the Economy or the Trend?


Suburban growth continues but economy has slowed moves

Suburban Growth Continues but Economy has Slowed Moves

  • 35 million people moved from 2007 to 2008; down from 40 million in 2005-2006

  • The mover rate dropped below 12%; lowest ever recorded (started 1948)

  • In met areas over a million pop suburban share:

    • was 51.3% in 2000

    • now at 52.5% in 2008;

    • gained 66% of the growth to 2008

      Census DomesticMobility Study


National commuting flows more circumferential travel

National Commuting Flows – More Circumferential Travel


Mode usage to work by flow type

Mode Usage to Work by Flow Type


Before 8 it s a guy thing many in long distance carpools more early driving

Before 8 it’s a Guy Thing! Many in Long Distance Carpools - More Early Driving


The focus will be on big metros

The Focus will be on Big Metros

  • Metros over a million

    • 1960 34 areas

    • 1990 39 areas

    • 2000 50 areas

    • 2005 53 areas

    • Probably 60 areas by 2020

    • 60% of population

  • 12 areas with more than 5 meg.

  • 1/3 of national pop.; 100 meg.

  • Growth is in exurb areas


Freight

Freight

  • Increasing tons, vehicles and value

  • Increasing truck shares

  • Prospect of larger vehicles

  • More hazardous materials

  • Non-driver fatalities


Truck freight s role is massive

Truck Freight’s Role is Massive

Freight facts and figures, 2008


Share of vmt by road system

Share of VMT by Road System

Freight Story 2008


The hazardous materials role as well

The Hazardous Materials Role as well

Freight Facts and Figures 2008


Truck related fatalities

Truck Related Fatalities


We will see new sometimes dramatic patterns

We will see New, Sometimes Dramatic Patterns

A replacement labor force of ? size & skills

A rapidly increasing dependent older pop

A pop heavily defined by immigration policy

Changes in energy & environment costs

Other intervening new technologies

All affected by and affecting changes in societal preferences and tastes.


Major safety implications

Major Safety Implications

POSITIVE

NEGATIVE

More post-work age workers

Slow fleet turn-over

Immigrant conflicts

Higher percentage of travel by older pop

More trucks, hazmat

  • Fewer young drivers

  • Stable vehicle & license growth

  • Younger working age group

  • Slower VMT growth – driven by pop & income


In summary

In Summary

  • To me the central demographic questions for traffic safety of our generation are:

    • Will the post work-years group be forced to stay in the work place – because of their own or society’s needs?

    • To what extent will the abilities of the aging population to meet its own mobility needs diminish? – in what ways and at what rate?

    • Can cars and truck activities be made more compatible?


Thank you

Thank You!

Alan E. Pisarski

with Special Thanks to

Forrest Council

and Hugh McGee

Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc


Questions

Questions?


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