GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE The Paradigm for 2014 That Makes Our Tomorrows Better STEP 3

1. GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCEThe Paradigm for 2014 That Makes Our Tomorrows BetterSTEP 3 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

2. TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE • Step 1: Integrating Today’s Global Knowledge Into Global Books of Knowledge • Step 2: From Today’s Books of Knowledge to Innovative Capacity Building • Step 3: From Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s

3. THE GOAL DISASTER RESILIENCE DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

4. REALITY LACK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

5. PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • EARLY WARNING • EM RESPONSE • RECOVERY 5 PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE • MONITORING • HAZARD MAPS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATIONR DATA BASES AND INFORMATION YOUR NATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

6. REDUCTION OF VULNERABILITY REDUCTION OF UNACCEPTABLE RISK LARGE BENE-FIT/COST POLITICAL SUCCESS (No Regrets) ENHANCED DISASTER RESILIENCE BENEFITS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

7. STEP 3: TO MOVEFrom Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s The difference between “Today” and “Tomorrow” is characterized by one set of “CHAMPIONS” leaving center stage and another set coming on.

8. REVIEW OF THE FACTS FROM STEP 1 Integrating Today’s Global Knowledge Into Global Books of Knowledge

9. FACT: THE PROBLEM IS NOT A LACK OF DISASTER KNOWLEDGE • ALL 200 NATIONS HAVE A HISTORICAL RECORD OF THEIR OWN DISASTERS

10. FACT : THE PROBLEM IS AN IMPLEMENTATION PROBLEM • KNOWING WHAT TO DO TECH-NICALLY AND HOW TO DO IT POLITICALLY ARE DIFFERENT PROCESSES

11. FACT : THE PROBLEM IS A LACK OF CAPACITY FOR IMPLEMENTATION • TECHNICAL ANDPOLITICAL CAPACITY ARE NEEDED FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF EACH OF THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

12. REVIEW OF THE FACTS FROM STEP 2 From Today’s Books of Knowledge to Innovative Capacity Building For Disaster Resilience

13. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives On Science, Policy, And EM HI-ED

14. EVERY NATION HAS DOZENS OF “WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY” AFTER A NEW DISASTER OCCURS TO USE THE UPDATED BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE FOR INNOVATIVE CAPACITY BUILDING

15. HEAR UNDER-STAND IDENT-IFY THE CAPACITY BUILDING PROCESS PERIOD OF INTEGRATION WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION PERSON-ALIZE ACT

16. FACT DISASTER RESILENCE HAPPENS AS CAPACITY IS BUILT BY THE INNOVATIVE INTEGRATION OF “POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS” OF A COMMON AGENDA

17. CHARACTERISTICS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE • STAPLE FACTORS INTEGRATED INTO DECISIONMAKING • STAPLE FACTORS BALANCED • BENEFIT/COST RATIO IS LARGE

18. POLITICAL SOLUTIONS CA TOWARDS INCREASED CAPACITY FOR GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA (CA) OF TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS

19. POLITICAL SOLUTIONS CA STAPLE FACTORS S P O T TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH NATION’S STAPLE FACTORS TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS

20. EACH NATION’S UNIQUE “STAPLE” FACTORS VARY WITH • TIME • PLACE • CIRCUMSTANCES

21. SOCIAL SYSTEMS SOCIAL (ARE THE PEOPLE AWARE OF WHAT THEY NEED?) TECHNICAL(IS THE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICE BEING APPLIED?) ADMINISTRATIVE(WHO IS RESPONSIBLE AND ACCOUNTABLE?) POLITICAL (ARE PUBLIC POLICIES RELEVANT IN TERMS OF THE THREAT?) COMMUNITY LEGAL(ARE EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES ENFORCED?) “STAPLE” FACTORS ECONOMIC (WILLINGNESS AND CAPACITY TO PAY FOR SAFETY?) ALL AFFECT COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE

22. STEP 3: TO MOVEFrom Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s The difference between “Today” and “Tomorrow” is ONE GENERATION, which is characterized by one set of CHAMPIONS leaving the stage and another coming on.

23. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS • PRIOR TO 1980: • HUGH CASUALTIES; ECONOMIC LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS • SINGLE HAZARD EMPHASIS WITH DEPENDENCY ON CAPACITY FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE • LEGISLATION FOR USA’s NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION PROGRAM

24. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • PRIOR TO 1980: • EMPHASIS ON POST-DISASTER STUDIES TO LEARN FROM EARTHQUAKES ADVANCED BY USA AND UNESCO • LEGISLATION FOR USA’s NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION PROGRAM ENACTED

25. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (continued) • PRIOR TO 1980: • NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM IN USA • INCREASED INDEMNIFICATION OF WIND AND EARTHQUAKE LOSSES WITH CASUALTY INSURANCE • INCREASE IN CAPACITY FOR SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS

26. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1980-1989: LEARNING TO THINK IN TERMS OF THE DISASTER PLANNING CYCLE (Preparedness, Mitigation, Emergency Response, Recovery) • INCREASE IN CAPACITY FOR LOSS ESTIMATION (e.g., insurers, HAZUS-EQ)

27. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1980-1989: • ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM SINGLE EVENTS REACH BILLIONS • CASUALTY INSURERS PAY OUT A BILLION DOLLARS IN ONE DISASTER • EMPHASIS ON PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION (Building codes and lifeline standards)

28. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1980-1989: • IDENTIFICATION OF “CHAMPIONS” FOR REGIONAL DISASTER REDUCTION PROMOTED BY USA, UNESCO AND UNDP • UNANIMOUS APPROVAL OF UN’s RESOLUTION FOR INT’L DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION (i.e., the IDNDR, the decade of the 1990’s)

29. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1990-1999: • 155 NATIONS PARTICIPATE IN UN’s INT’L DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION PROGRAMME • SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, PLANNERS, AND PUBLIC OFFICIALS LEARN TO THINK IN TERMS OF ALL NATURAL HAZARDS INSTEAD OF SINGLE HAZARDS

30. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1990-1999: • 155 INDIVIDUAL NATIONS CREATE NATIONAL COMMITTEES (OR ENTITIES) FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION • EXPERTS RECOMMEND INCREASED FOCUS ON EARLY WARNING AND PRE- AND POST-DISASTER VULNERABILITY REDUCTION, AND EDUCATION

31. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1990-1999: • INCREASED NUMBER OF INT’L CONFERENCES ON DISASTER REDUCTION • PLANNING FOR FIRST WORLD CONFERENMCE ON NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION IN KOBE JAPAN • INCREASED FOCUS ON “PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS” AS IDNDR CLOSES

32. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1990-1999: • CONCEPT OF “SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT” ADVANCED • FOCUS ON “PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION” INCREASED AS IDNDR CLOSES

33. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 2000-2014: • UN’s IDNDR PROGRAMME TRANSFORMED INTO INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PROGRAMME • SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, PLANNERS, AND PUBLIC OFFICIALS LEARN TO THINK IN TERMS OF STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION

34. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 2000-2014: • WORLD CONFERENCE CONVENED IN KOBE, JAPAN; THE KYOTO PROTOCOL FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PRODUCED • CONCEPT OF GLOBAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ADVANCED

35. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 2000-2014: • FORUM ON GLOBAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ESTABLISHED IN DAVOS, SWITZERLAND • INT’L CONFERENCES CONVENED IN DAVOS IN 2006, 2008, 2010, AND 2012 • PLANNING BEGINS FOR 2ND WORLD CONFERENCE IN JAPAN IN 2015

36. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 2000-2014: • CASUALTIES REACH HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS AND ECONOMIC LOSSES REACH HUNDRED OF BILLIONS IN SINGLE EVENTS • THE FIVE PILLARS OF GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGES AS AN URGENT GLOBAL PARADIGM

37. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO FLOOD DISASTERS

38. CAUSES OF RISK BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN INUNDATION AND SCOUR INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS FLOODS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, INJURIES, AND DEATH CASE HISTORIES LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

39. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE NOT RESILIENT TO HURRICANE OR TYPHOON DISASTERS

40. CAUSES OF RISK WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION SEVERE WINDSTORMS IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN CASE HISTORIES POOR WORKMANSHIP IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

41. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS

42. CAUSES OF RISK INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING ) IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS EARTHQUAKES FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE CASE HISTORIES POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

43. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO TSUNAMI DISASTERS

44. CAUSES OF RISK HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS TSUNAMIS FLOODING CASE HISTORIES NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

45. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO DROUGHT DISASTERS

46. CAUSES OF RISK PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER DROUGHTS LOSS OF VEGETATION CASE HISTORIES INSECT INFESTATION PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION

47. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTERS

48. CAUSES OF RISK PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS CASE HISTORIES IN PATH OF LAHARS IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE

49. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO LANDSLIDE DISASTERS

50. CAUSES OF RISK BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS CASE HISTORIES EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES