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Putting Findings of Research into all African Perspective

Putting Findings of Research into all African Perspective. Improving DRM and Stemming IFFS Tax Justice for Promoting Equality and Social Justice Nairobi, Kenya 13 March 2019. Fanwell Kenala Bokosi, PhD Executive Director. External Debt Stock/GNI 33.5% External Debt Stock/Exports 135.7%

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Putting Findings of Research into all African Perspective

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  1. Putting Findings of Research into all African Perspective Improving DRM and Stemming IFFS Tax Justice for Promoting Equality and Social Justice Nairobi, Kenya 13 March 2019 Fanwell Kenala Bokosi, PhD Executive Director

  2. External Debt Stock/GNI 33.5% External Debt Stock/Exports 135.7% Concessional/External Debt Stock 32.4% 2017 $92 billion of outstanding African sovereign Eurobonds

  3. 2017 Tunisia Morocco External Debt Stock/GNI 35.7% External Debt Stock/Exports 243.8% Concessional/External Debt Stock 56.2 % Algeria Libya Western Sahara (Morocco) Egypt Mauritania Niger Eritrea Senegal Sudan Djibouti Mali Chad The Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea-Bissau Guinea Benin Nigeria Ethiopia Côte d'Ivoire Togo Sierra Leone Central African Republic Ghana South Sudan Liberia Cameroon B=Burundi Somalia EG=Equatorial Guinea EG Uganda Kenya São Tomé and Príncipe L=Lesotho Gabon Congo Republic DR Congo R R=Rwanda B S=Swaziland Tanzania Seychelles External Debt Stock/GNI 65.2% External Debt Stock/Exports 179.4% Concessional/External Debt Stock 24.2 % Comoros Mayotte (France) Angola Malawi Zambia Mozambique Zimbabwe Namibia Madagascar Botswana S L South Africa

  4. Tunisia Morocco Algeria Libya Western Sahara (Morocco) Egypt $4.00bn Mauritania Niger Eritrea Senegal Sudan Djibouti Mali Chad The Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea-Bissau Guinea Benin Nigeria Ethiopia Côte d'Ivoire Togo Sierra Leone Central African Republic Ghana South Sudan Liberia B=Burundi Cameroon Somalia EG=Equatorial Guinea EG Uganda Kenya São Tomé and Príncipe L=Lesotho Gabon Congo Republic DR Congo R R=Rwanda B S=Swaziland Tanzania Seychelles Comoros Mayotte (France) Angola Malawi Zambia $3.00bn Mozambique Zimbabwe Namibia Madagascar Botswana S L South Africa

  5. A stronger US dollar Concerns about global growth and that of China The average yield of African eurobonds increased from 5.3% to 7.4% 2018 Tough Year? Sign of the Future? African yields are 2.9 percentage points higher than the Rest of the world AFRICAN PREMIUM Trade Tensions The Fed raising US rates

  6. IMPLICATIONS OF THE INCREASE IN YIELDS $ 1 Billion 10 Year Eurobond 5.3 % 7.4 % $210 mn $74 million a year $53 mn per year $530 mn interest in 10 yrs $740 mn interest in 10 years

  7. Exchange Rate Risk Credit Risk 7.4 % Debt Distress + 14.0% Borrowing to repay past Borrowing Corruption 21.4 % Susceptibility to External Shocks Interest Rate Risk 96 % of bonds are on Fixed Rates

  8. THANK YOU

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