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Getting Published CAS Annual Meeting (C12) November 15, 2006

Getting Published CAS Annual Meeting (C12) November 15, 2006. Moderator: Joanne Spalla, CAS VP Marketing & Communications Panelists: Gary Josephson, Chair, Publications Management Board Roger Hayne, CAS VP Research Gary Venter, Associate Editor, Variance Journal. Outline.

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Getting Published CAS Annual Meeting (C12) November 15, 2006

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  1. Getting PublishedCAS Annual Meeting (C12)November 15, 2006 Moderator: Joanne Spalla, CAS VP Marketing & Communications Panelists: Gary Josephson, Chair, Publications Management Board Roger Hayne, CAS VP Research Gary Venter, Associate Editor, Variance Journal

  2. Outline

  3. CAS Centennial Goal The CAS will be globally recognized as the preeminent resource in educating casualty actuaries and conducting research in casualty actuarial science. CAS members will be recognized as the leading experts in the evaluation of hazard risk and the integration of hazard risk with strategic, financial and operational risk.

  4. Task Force on PublicationsRecommendations • Remove papers from PCAS. Keep CAS-specific content and add Yearbook content. • Create a new journal where refereed papers will be published. • Create a yearly Membership Directory as a separate publication available on request. • Encourage non-CAS members to publish in the new journal; actively solicit articles from around the world.

  5. VarianceMission Statement Variance is a peer-reviewed journal published by the CAS to disseminate work of interest to casualty actuaries worldwide. The journal's focus is original practical and theoretical research in casualty actuarial science. Significant survey or similar articles are also considered for publication. Membership in the Casualty Actuarial Society is not a prerequisite for submitting papers to the journal and submission by non-CAS members is encouraged.

  6. CAS Publications Gary Josephson Chair, CAS Publications Management Board

  7. CAS PUBLICATIONSCURRENT • PROCEEDINGS • FORUM • NEWSLETTERS • YEARBOOK

  8. PUBLICATIONS MANAGEMENT BOARD • Distinguish among types of papers • Refereed • Reviewed • Other • Use CAS Website to showcase publications • Make it easier for authors to submit • Establish publication policies

  9. CAS PUBLICATIONS2007 and beyond • VARIANCE • ON LINE FORUM • MONOGRAPHS • NEWSLETTERS • YEARBOOK/PROCEEDINGS

  10. CAS PUBLICATIONS 2007 and beyond • ON-LINE FORUM • Working Papers • Way to develop ideas • Minimal review • (Almost) immediate posting • Comments welcomed/encouraged • “Grow up” to be Variance papers

  11. CAS PUBLICATIONS 2007 and beyond • ON-LINE FORUM • Call Papers/ Discussion Papers • Template for paper structure • No change in process • Oversight by CAS committees

  12. CAS PUBLICATIONS 2007 and beyond • ON-LINE FORUM • Research Working Parties • Publish when completed • Oversight by Research Committees • Extract ideas for Variance papers

  13. CAS PUBLICATIONS 2007 and beyond • CAS MONOGRAPH SERIES • Top quality papers – but not fitting Variance criteria • Research Working Party Reports • Study Notes • Research Committee Compilations • Other

  14. CAS PUBLICATIONS 2007 and beyond • NEWSLETTERS AND YEARBOOK • Newsletters – no change • Actuarial Review • Future Fellows • Yearbook

  15. Variance:Advancing the Science of Risk

  16. Variance Editorial Board Curtis Gary Dean Editor in Chief Dale Edlefson Associate Editor—Copy Editing Rich Fein Associate Editor—Copy Editing Gary Venter Associate Editor—Development

  17. What is Applied Research? Gary G. Venter, FCAS Associate Editor, CAS Journal Editorial Board

  18. Applied vs. Theoretical Research • Applied • Tries to solve a real-world problem someone is actually having • Theoretical • Tries to generalize a theorem

  19. Theoretical Research Approach • Take a theorem of interest • Weaken one of the assumptions • Try to figure out how that weakens the result

  20. Practical Research Approach • Try to apply an algorithm to a problem you have • If it doesn’t seem to work: • Look at the assumptions of the algorithm • Try to figure out which ones don’t hold for your application • Try to develop adjustments that will make sense in your case

  21. Communication is Key • Academic research can produce new methods that will show the way to better applications • This can come from any of many different disciplines

  22. Moral • Keep your eye on the ball, your shoulder to the wheel, your nose to the grindstone and your ear on the track. • Then see if you can get any work done in that position

  23. Challenges for CAS

  24. Expanding Topics • Advanced credibility • Hachemeister 1975 – Regression credibility • Greg Taylor – Credibility in function spaces • Applicable in classification ratemaking • Little PCAS attention to date • Predictive modeling • Big in classification ratemaking • CAS starting to pay attention

  25. More … • Stochastic Reserving • Papers starting to appear • Future of loss reserving is stochastic • Catastrophe losses • Big part of insurance • Actuaries do not understand models very well • Maybe survey papers would be helpful • Basis risk, stratified sampling, … possible issues

  26. Financial Modeling • Part of ERM we are less up on • Asset modeling • Foreign exchange modeling • Capital needs and value of capital • Pricing of risk – incomplete market martingales • Value of risk transfer • Risk-adjusted profitability by line

  27. Challenges for Editors • Getting papers submitted on these topics • Finding reviewers who can evaluate them • Overcoming bias towards status-quo • New paper – “Method A Sucks” • Proof – Hemi-semi-demi groups on manifolds • Send to reviewer who is expert on method A • Reviewer makes 60% of revenue on method A • Doesn’t know anything about hemi-demi-semi groups • Rejects paper • It happens – but we need to try to minimize

  28. So You Wanna Be A Writer? Roger M. Hayne, FCAS, MAAA CAS VP - Research

  29. What Do You Need? • One or more ideas • The ability to string two or more words together in a coherent sentence • Persistency • Knowledge of the guidelines for submission to your target publication • Thick Skin

  30. Stringing Words Together • Abstract summarizing the results • Brief summary of research on the topic - what has been done so far and how the new paper improves upon that • Outline of the remainder of the paper • Development of the results (with technical details in an appendices) • Summary of what has been done • References and any appendices.

  31. The Idea • Does not have to be “earth shattering” • Think concise – a long treatise will probably not make it into Variance • The idea should be practically sound • A strong foundation in theory is always helpful but not necessary for Variance • For Variance practical is the key

  32. The Process • Write it down • Read it over • Read it again • Get someone else to read it • Get someone else to read it again • You get the picture – give the editors a break, get them something that is reasonably polished • It is always a good idea • It lessens the chance for outright rejection

  33. The Process – Part Deux • Format and clean up the paper • Pay careful attention to the guidelines for publication in your target publication • Send the “completed” manuscript to the appropriate person (see guides for submission) • Wait

  34. Journal Timeline

  35. The Process – Part Drei • Wait patiently (editors are busy actuaries too) • Generally the reply will fall into one of five categories: • Accept as is (very rare) • Accept with suggestions for improvement • Accept conditionally • Request resubmission • Reject

  36. Thick Skin • Suggestions by editors given in the spirit of a high quality final paper • Most are editorial (commas, spelling, grammar, etc.) • Sometimes reviewer(s) critical of theory or concept presented • You decide whether and what to change

  37. The Response • Good idea to attempt to at least respond to each suggestion • “Thought about it and decided not to change” is an appropriate response • Look at this as another opportunity to improve your paper • Sometimes criticisms lead to new paths for exploration (case in point my first PCAS paper) • Frank and open discussion can often resolve issues and allow publication (case in point my Service Contract paper)

  38. Then Wait • Wait some more • Remember – editors are people too, and busy people at that!! • You may get another round of suggestions, particularly if you significantly revamp the paper • You may get notification that the paper has been accepted – congratulations • You will then get a proof of the paper – time to read it again, you know the drill

  39. In Print • Paper finally appears • If a Variance paper you get to present it at a CAS meeting • Put together your presentation • Get ready for the encore • The sequel • Discussions • Fame • Fortune??????

  40. Submission Information current http://www.casact.org/pubs/ (coming soon) www.VarianceJournal.org

  41. Questions

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