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Enrolment Demand in the GTA Presentation to APPC Planning Forum. Glenn Craney Executive Director Office of Institutional Research and Analysis January 2008. York has seen Significant Growth Over The Past Decade. Source: OIRA.

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Enrolment demand in the gta presentation to appc planning forum

Enrolment Demand in the GTAPresentation to APPC Planning Forum

Glenn Craney

Executive Director

Office of Institutional Research and Analysis

January 2008





Growth has been fueled by large increases in participation rates
Growth Has Been Fueled By Large Increases In Participation Rates

Source: MTCU, Statistics Canada


Growth has been fueled by large increases in participation rates1
Growth Has Been Fueled By Large Increases In Participation Rates

7% increase over the past decade

Source: MTCU, Statistics Canada


Growth has been fueled by large increases in participation rates2
Growth Has Been Fueled By Large Increases In Participation Rates

7% increase over the past decade

Double Cohort Year

Source: MTCU, Statistics Canada


Looking forward traditional university aged population will continue to grow
Looking Forward – Traditional University Aged Population will Continue to Grow

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance



Enrolment demand will increase significantly over the next 15 years1
Enrolment Demand Will Increase Significantly Over The Next 15 Years.

High Scenario

( +0.7% part rate pa)

+35% increase

+ 125,000 Students

Source: OIRA


Enrolment demand will increase significantly over the next 15 years2
Enrolment Demand Will Increase Significantly Over The Next 15 Years.

High Scenario

( +0.7% part rate pa)

+35% increase

+ 125,000 Students

Low Scenario (+0.35% part rate pa)

+22 % increase

+ 78,000 Students

Source: OIRA


Provincial analysis most of the growth will be in the gta
Provincial Analysis – Most Of The Growth Will Be In The GTA

Ontario Average

+1%

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance


Provincial analysis most of the growth will be in the gta1
Provincial Analysis – Most Of The Growth Will Be In The GTA

  • Outside GTA

  • 11%

  • Due to low birth rates

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance


Provincial analysis most of the growth will be in the gta2
Provincial Analysis – Most Of The Growth Will Be In The GTA

GTA Growth

+ 15%

Fueled by Immigration

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance



Provincial analysis over 90 of students outside the gta attend non gta area universities
Provincial Analysis – Over 90% Of Students Outside The GTA Attend Non-GTA Area Universities

Source: 2005 OUAC


Regional analysis peel and york regions represents two thirds of the projected growth
Regional Analysis - Peel And York Regions Represents Two Thirds Of The Projected Growth

Durham – 5% growth or 2,000 to 2,600 enrolments

York Region – 33% growth or 7,000 to 20,000 enrolments

Peel Region – 26% growth or 7,000 to 20,000 enrolments

Toronto 4% growth or 2,000 to 6,000 enrolments


Regional analysis york draws heavily from york region
Regional Analysis - York draws heavily from York Region Thirds Of The Projected Growth

  • Participation rates across Peel, York, Durham and Toronto: A large proportion of York Region students attend York University.

York University

Ryerson University

University of Toronto


Projected growth required for gta universities to maintain share of gta enrolments
Projected Growth Required for GTA Universities to Maintain Share of GTA Enrolments

High Scenario

+ 60,000 Students

Low Scenario

+42,000 Students

Source: OIRA


Research on new canadians
Research on New Canadians Share of GTA Enrolments

Source: OIRA, Academica Research


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